Just a thought about the extra 12 years at SSR

[labst60]

We were seriously considering purchasing at SSR over BWV b/c of the extra 12 years (we are in our mid 20’s, it is conceivable that we would be able to enjoy the extra years.) Ultimately, we decided to buy at BWV, and although I hear that SSR is beautiful, we felt that BWV is where we would want to stay the majority of the time over the next 38 years.

That being said, of course I had a couple of moments of the nagging feeling “Geeze, will I be sorry in 2042 when I could have had 12 more years??” Then this occurred to be me – wouldn’t a resale at SSR be pretty reasonably priced in 2038, even if the DVC properties continued to be well-kept and popular destinations, this would be a 38 year old resort w/ only 12 years remaining on the contract. Resale prices can only go UP for so long and will eventually have to take a turn downward as the end of the contract nears. Would anyone pay $95 (in today’s dollars) for a 12 year DVC contract?? Of course not – it is the remaining 40-50 years that provide the value.

So, for those of us with contracts expiring sooner rather than later because another resort was our first choice for the “short-term”, we may be able to get in on SSR down the road at a decent price, if that is what we desire once our first contract expires. Maybe it will be a slight premium over what we would have paid today (in terms of value for your dollar), maybe not, but the opportunity will be, presumably still at a “fair” price.

 

[CarolMN]

You may very well be right.

A person really has to decide if an extra 12 years at the end of the contract is worth it if you don't get to stay where you want to stay, when you want to stay there for the next 38 years. For us it would not be worth it!

With the increasing numbers of DVC members, it will become more and more difficult to get into the smaller WDW DVC resorts (BCV, VWL & BWV) if you don't own there. SSR looks nice, I like the location and plan to try it out in the future. But most of the time, I want to stay at BWV!

38 years from now, I also can't help but wonder if I will even want to visit WDW and be in good enough physical condition to do it. Many, many things can change in 38 years!

Best wishes -

 

[DVCME]

Seem like its going to be fairly easy to book at SSR at 7 months once all the units are built anyway.

 

[FLYNZ4]

Your first priority should be buying where you want to stay. For us (especially when we considered things more carefully)... the location of SSR started growing on us once we considered:

a) how often we really go to PI/DD
b) how it has become the transportation "hub" for going resort-resort. We will be able to go direct to any hotel without transfering at a theme park first.

I still think that BWV/BCV may be the very best location.... but the lines have been blurred so much in our minds that I am not sure of that anymore... and I think we will be very happy with SSR.

As far as buying contracts near the end of their life... I am not too sure that is the best strategy. It may end up being OK... but I think it will end up being more costly.

Historically, the prices of properties rise for several years even though the term is decreasing. At some point, the price will maximize and then has to start decreasing. I *think* that maximum price point will happen a few years after DVC opens new resorts with longer contracts. To me... assuming the locations are places that you will enjoy... it makes sense to sell your "asset" at the peak value.... and then replace it with a new contract that should follow a growth in value over the following several years.

I could be all wrong... but that is that I am doing... but... this is very important... the only reason that I am doing this is because I think we will like SSR very much.

/Jim

 

[FLYNZ4]

Originally posted by DVCME
Seem like its going to be fairly easy to book at SSR at 7 months once all the units are built anyway.

I think that SSR and especially OKW will be the easiest to reserve, especially as the membership grows in size. This (to me)... is what makes BWV/BCV/VWL so attractive. For those who absolutely want to be guaranteed to stay at one of those three... buying there is a good choice.

/Jim

 

[DrTomorrow]

Originally posted by CarolMN
[...] With the increasing numbers of DVC members, it will become more and more difficult to get into the smaller WDW DVC resorts (BCV, VWL & BWV) if you don't own there. [...]

A question for Carol and others - and this is sincerely asked, because I really don't know the answer. As DVC owners enter their 10th, 20th and 30th years in the program, will their tendency to be to stay primarily at their home resort, or will a 'need for variety' grow? If there are any folks who bought in the early 90's, what has proven to be the case for you: the need to roam or no place like home?

Thanks.

 

[brivers222]

We are in our Mid 20's right now also... Actually I am a bit over Mid and my wife is a bit under mid, but thats just being technical

Anyways, we just bought SSR last week because of the extra 12 years it offered. Like you said, god willing, we both will be around to enjoy the 12 years and we didn't want to be left hangin' in 2042. That being said, there will probably be another resort offering even longer times and then we will be in the same shoes as those 2042 people are in right now.

I love the idea of being able to spend the next 50 years with Disney (if I so choose to!)

 

[RobDoc]

Originally posted by DrTomorrow
As DVC owners enter their 10th, 20th and 30th years in the program, will their tendency to be to stay primarily at their home resort, or will a 'need for variety' grow? If there are any folks who bought in the early 90's, what has proven to be the case for you: the need to roam or no place like home?

We purchased 11 years ago and have stayed at all 7 DVC resorts- at least twice (except for SSR- only once ... so far). We bought at HH because we do go there each year, but have even used some of those points to stay at other resorts.

While we primarily stay at our home resorts, we have definitely enjoyed "sampling" all of the DVC resorts (and some of the other options too!).

That's what is so nice about DVC- the flexibility and choices available really make it easy to enjoy many ways to use the program.

 

[PamOKW]

Good point about how constant fluctuations make it hard to predict how things will work out. As soon as DVC expanded beyond the one resort at WDW and the option of being able to "share" resorts began there has always been a concern about "getting what you want". To date, there has not been an overwhelming problem and each new resort has been absorbed into the system. Are some times tough/nearly impossiblie? Sure. But, generally people get what they want or something close to it. This seems to work especially well if you allow the waitlist to work.

A combination of factors probably keeps this in check -- including the balance of people who only want to stay in one resort for years to come and those who like to "mix it up" from time to time. It's also possible that the very young family who wants to be at VWL to be near MK will become the "empty nester" golfers who want to bring other couples down to OKW (or SSR or even Eagle Pines) to spend a week golfing and hitting the parks.