Is Now the Time to Buy a Grand Floridian DVC Resale Contract?

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

I think if you were looking to buy VGF you should have bought over the summer. I’m not sure about resale prices but I would guess we will see more VGF contracts on resale in a few years so maybe prices will drop? Or maybe all those who bought 150 pts realize they need more VGF point to do a week there so they add on resale and remain steady. Who knows.

This is a really interesting point. We already owned 125 points at VGF, I had already realized I needed at least another 50 (and we usually only stay 3-4 nights in a studio each trip), and decided to split my new VGF direct contracts into 50+100 so I could choose which one I might want to sell down the line if I ultimately want to own 175 points or 225 points, and I suspected that many others like me did the math and bought more points than they strictly wanted/needing, also realizing they could sell a smaller contract down the road near breakeven once the resort sells out...but many other people may be buying in at 150 (I think it was a better price per point than 175 or 200 if I recall correctly), only to take a trip or two and realize that they actually need another 50 to 100. As for me, I don't see myself selling any of my VGF points anytime soon after all... but it wouldn't surprise me if VGF resale points stick around the high 150s- low 160s for a while after it sells out-- my thinking being that many recent purchasers will be a large chunk of buyers and sellers and in their minds don't want to pay more or get much less than their direct buy-in cost.

 

[intamin]

The big difference really is time value of money. VGF has the larger buy-in.

SSR 150pts x $100 = $15k
VGF 150pts x $150 = $22.5k

$7.5k difference today. A conservative 3% over 20yrs nearly doubles it. What resale price will these have ~2042?

All valid points. I always see time value of money brought up on here but I think it's just funny that we discuss it so much on here but do we think about this when we purchase a new car and go like if I downgrade the time value of my money can get me another 20k down the road? If I just eat quick service during my entire trip the whole time I can save 2 grand which when invested can give me 5k in 20 years. Idk if it's just me but if I'm putting down 15k where over the life of contract I'm paying 45k+ with dues, bumping that up to 53k to be content with where I'm staying and where I own is worth it but to each their own.

 

[Jlo85]

All valid points. I always see time value of money brought up on here but I think it's just funny that we discuss it so much on here but do we think about this when we purchase a new car and go like if I downgrade the time value of my money can get me another 20k down the road?

It's the rational vs. emotional buyer . You have some resale buyers who care a lot about savings and net present value and all that, and then you have the direct buyers who want just want the gifts and the perks. And a lot of people are on the spectrum in the middle.

Disney definitely preys upon the emotional buyers, though. But I think the emotional buyers are also what prop-up DVC resale prices. It's why buying DVC can often be more expensive than timeshares at the Ritz or Four Seasons.

 

[intamin]

It's the rational vs. emotional buyer . You have some resale buyers who care a lot about savings and net present value and all that, and then you have the direct buyers who want just want the gifts and the perks. And a lot of people are on the spectrum in the middle.

Disney definitely preys upon the emotional buyers, though. But I think the emotional buyers are also what prop-up DVC resale prices. It's why buying DVC can often be more expensive than timeshares at the Ritz or Four Seasons.

I think most people are in the middle which is why we have so many discussions about pinpointing where exactly makes sense for everybody on here. It's the reason why I can't personally get myself to buy a 2042 resort but at the same time also have a hard time picking up a SSR resale.

 

[cbailey1616]

I just purchased a resale for $140/point, going into ROFR today. Could it go lower? Sure, but Im not trying to time the bottom. Im happy with $140.

 

[intamin]

I just purchased a resale for $140/point, going into ROFR today. Could it go lower? Sure, but Im not trying to time the bottom. Im happy with $140.

That's a great price and if you only need the points at VGF then it's perfectly fine, especially if you already have member benefits and don't care about new resorts.

 

[cbailey1616]

That's a great price and if you only need the points at VGF then it's perfectly fine, especially if you already have member benefits and don't care about new resorts.

I think just based on what Paul was saying is resale VGF worth 160pp and should there be a mad dash to pick up resale right now because of impending sold out prices on VGF? Not really. The association has become significantly larger and the days of it going for over 200 on the resale market are over. We have a pretty good idea of sold out availability for it right now at 7 months and it's pretty good without home resort priority. A lot of the people who bought in over the summer were brand new owners and are likely seeing their 150 points doesn't go that far with the most expensive point charts on WDW property and will try to trade out.

Fair take, this is my first contract but plan on picking up a beach club at a later date. I couldn't decide between VGF or Poly but ending up landing on GFC due to the room scarcity(less scarce now) and 1 bedrooms. I was waiting until someone would bite on the $140/point since I thought that was a fair price.

 

[Jgc014]

All valid points. I always see time value of money brought up on here but I think it's just funny that we discuss it so much on here but do we think about this when we purchase a new car and go like if I downgrade the time value of my money can get me another 20k down the road? If I just eat quick service during my entire trip the whole time I can save 2 grand which when invested can give me 5k in 20 years. Idk if it's just me but if I'm putting down 15k where over the life of contract I'm paying 45k+ with dues, bumping that up to 53k to be content with where I'm staying and where I own is worth it but to each their own.

To be honest, I think like this for most purchases, and in some way or other, I think a lot of people probably do at least for bigger purchases. Maybe they are not thinking about how much the saved money will be worth in 10 years after investing, but they may think if I buy this more expensive car, I am not taking that beach vacation this year. For most people, there is an opportunity cost for their money.

 

[CarolynFH]

Ahh, gotcha. I wonder if that's a way for DVD to give a misconception that you need more points than you really would for a week. I wouldn't have considered 7 nights, 8 days to be a week. Sneaky, sneaky DVC.

Just FYI, a standard timeshare week is 7 nights. Friday to Friday, Saturday to Saturday, Sunday to Sunday, etc.

If I were checking in on Sunday for “a week,” I would want to stay for ALL of Saturday, not have to check out at 11 AM Saturday morning!

 

[intamin]

Fair take, this is my first contract but plan on picking up a beach club at a later date. I couldn't decide between VGF or Poly but ending up landing on GFC due to the room scarcity(less scarce now) and 1 bedrooms. I was waiting until someone would bite on the $140/point since I thought that was a fair price.

I think given direct VGF was at 161/pp, 140 is fair depending on stripped/loaded status again particularly if you don't care about benefits. If you do care about new resorts and benefits then debatable. If you use sorcerer passes, the 400 dollars per family member saved over going for a incredipass can definitely make the difference for direct but if you're not using that stuff anyways then who cares.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

It's the rational vs. emotional buyer . You have some resale buyers who care a lot about savings and net present value and all that, and then you have the direct buyers who want just want the gifts and the perks. And a lot of people are on the spectrum in the middle.

Disney definitely preys upon the emotional buyers, though. But I think the emotional buyers are also what prop-up DVC resale prices. It's why buying DVC can often be more expensive than timeshares at the Ritz or Four Seasons.

Can you seriously get a Ritz or Four Seasons timeshare resale…and are they less per point/night/week than VGF?

 

[Jlo85]

Can you seriously get a Ritz or Four Seasons timeshare resale…and are they less per point/night/week than VGF?

At least in my limited research, yes, especially when you compare to the dues cost of a 2 bedroom at VGF for 3 weeks. Usually these luxury timeshare brands are fractional so you have to buy 3 weeks. I dream of the day when I can buy a St. Regis contract, though those are certainly pricier.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

At least in my limited research, yes, especially when you compare to the dues cost of a 2 bedroom at VGF for 3 weeks. Usually these luxury timeshare brands are fractional so you have to buy 3 weeks. I dream of the day when I can buy a St. Regis contract, though those are certainly pricier.

Where do you find these fractional resale contracts? I don't think any of the big Disney brokers do them.

 

[Jlo85]

Where do you find these fractional resale contracts? I don't think any of the big Disney brokers do them.

Usually need to go through a luxury timeshare broker. If you Google “Resale St. Regis Timeshare,” for example, you’ll find some. Probably want to do that anyways because they’ll know the rules, it’s not as public as DVC. There are also a couple Four Season locations and the Ritz in St. Thomas on Redweek.