Is DVC value going to go down due to contract end date??

[Dano1182]

When I bought BWV 10 years ago .The end of the DVC term seems to be so far away.
Now ten years later 2047 or what ever the date is does not seems so far away.
My DS is 11 and DD 8.I was thinking of how they are growing and then it hit me.
They will be my age when DVC ends.
Maybe we should have bought a timeshare that is not bound by term limits.

Then my grand children would have it.
Does any one else feel this way?
I am also wondering at what year DVC will dramaticly decrease in value due to the pending end of contract.
I think that once we get with in about 25 years the value will drop.
WHa thappens to us when contract expires ?

 

[jgus]

Look at OKW... Just charge you more!

 

[Chuck S]

Resale prices will, of course, drop as we close to the end of our contracts. The value of any timeshare, including DVC, is not in the resale...it is in your personal use of the timeshare.

Look at many "forever" timeshares, some are worth literally pennies on the dollar resale over original sale price. I think extending OKW, no matter how well kept, at 65 years would be reaching the end of the useful life of the buildings. How much would a traditional deeded timeshare charge to basically re-build the buildings, which your grandchildren would be obligated to pay for if they kept it...or what would the resale value be (as I said, many are pennies on the dollar.)

 

[Mickey'sApprentice]

The resale price will inevitably go down as the end date becomes closer. I think that a lot of the decrease will eventually be that the resale point cost will not keep up with inflation. (i.e., if VWL sells for $80/pt. in 2009 & still sells for $80/pt. in 2019, you've really lost ground.)

I personally like that DVC eventually expires. I don't like the idea of it being someone's burden after I'm dead.

 

[WALTSAGOD]

The value of any timeshare, including DVC, is not in the resale...it is in your personal use of the timeshare.

The best sentence I've read here on the board .

 

[Sandisw]

When I bought BWV 10 years ago .The end of the DVC term seems to be so far away.
Now ten years later 2047 or what ever the date is does not seems so far away.
My DS is 11 and DD 8.I was thinking of how they are growing and then it hit me.
They will be my age when DVC ends.
Maybe we should have bought a timeshare that is not bound by term limits.

Then my grand children would have it.
Does any one else feel this way?
I am also wondering at what year DVC will dramaticly decrease in value due to the pending end of contract.
I think that once we get with in about 25 years the value will drop.
WHa thappens to us when contract expires ?

With the new resorts having longer expiration dates, do you think that anyone who owns at an older resort may be thinking of selling those contracts now to buy into the newer resorts to get the extended time? Dependening on what someone paid, there is a possiblity to sell at today's resale figures and make back much of the initial value.

If BWV are going for $80 - $83/ppt right now, somone could conceivable sell now, when there is still 33 years left and buy AKL or SSR at a very similar (or lower) cost? Of course, this would only work if the person is not concerned about what his/her home resort is but would it not help bring back some of the value in what is owned? Just a thought.

 

[ammo]

Regarding kids/grandkids, we are not considering passing DVC along to them (unless we "expire" before our contracts expire!). While we tend to think of DVC as an asset, it is also a significant financial commitment -- the annual maintenance fees are substantial, and my primary-school-aged children may have very different travel habits as adults.

Perhaps I will buy contracts for each of my children at some point in the future when they are ready to use them. But I imagine WDW and DVC will both be significantly different by that time, and I will have to re-evaluate our continued membership in the light of changing circumstances.

 

[Lynne M]

Resale prices will, of course, drop as we close to the end of our contracts. The value of any timeshare, including DVC, is not in the resale...it is in your personal use of the timeshare.

Absolutely perfect. This belongs in a banner at the top of the DVC boards. Preferably a flashing banner.

OP, DVC is not an investment. No timeshare is. DVC is a pre-payment plan for your lodging. That's all it is - a different way to pay for your resort stays.

 

[CarolA]

IMHO, Yes!

You have a declining asset. The value will go down as it gets closer to the end using most normal logic.

DVC's values are artifically high for timeshares due to Disneys agressive ROFR. However, I am not sure that Disney is going to continue to "agressively" defend the pricing when you get down to just a few years left.


Since I bought on the assumption that at the end the net value would be ZERO I am fine with that.

I also don't think of DVC as an asset to leave someone. It can easily be considered a liablity. Leaving someone an "asset" that requires maintence fees, park tickets, trips to Orlando is not exactly giving them "cash" LOL! What if your children/grandchildren don't really like Disney, can't afford the trips etc? Was that an asset? Especially if near the end it becomes next to impossible to sell. (And that's not outside the realm of possiblity. Happens to lots of timeshares!)

 

[mickeys girl 52]

I was wondering, isin't there a possibility that Disney will offer an extension to the other DVC's like they did for OKW?

 

[Chuck S]

I was wondering, isin't there a possibility that Disney will offer an extension to the other DVC's like they did for OKW?

A possibility, yes. However, there are differences between free standing DVC resorts, like OKW and SSR and those resort combined with traditional Disney resorts.

WDW is less than 50 years old, the Poly and Contemporary have already needed major rehabs. While neither was cfully closed, floors and longhouses were closed, and the full rehab took quite some time.

We don't know what Disney's long term plans are for the Beach Club, Boardwalk Inn, or Wilderness Lodge. They may wish to retheme or even demolish the hotel portions in the future, or sell them off. The free standing DVC resorts could easily be contracted out to another management company, and become, for instance, a Marriott timeshare. But cash hotels may be another situation entirely, much more susceptible to economic forces to where it is no longer profitable to operate them. With the sharing or amenities and services, it makes the hotel portion much less "flexible", as the DVC portion would HAVE to remain open and operating much as it is today. I think Disney will not be looking to extend the contracts at the Inn/DVC combined resorts until farther down the road, when they have a firmer long term plan for the hotel portions of the property, based on economic factors they may encounter 10 or 15 years down the line. As it stands, there are rumors of tempoariliy closing parts of POR and POP until the economy improves. If those resorts had associated villas, it would be more difficult to simply "de-activate" a portion of those resorts.

We also don't know how smoothly the OKW extension went from Disney's point of view, or if their sales goals for the extension were met. I do know there were complaints from many members on how it was presented.

 

[spiceycat]

With the new resorts having longer expiration dates, do you think that anyone who owns at an older resort may be thinking of selling those contracts now to buy into the newer resorts to get the extended time? Dependening on what someone paid, there is a possiblity to sell at today's resale figures and make back much of the initial value.

that is what I did sold okw 240 points and brought 120 points on BLT.

then I have waited 15 years for a monrail DVC resort - so had to buy....

since my brother's kids are going to college - they will no longer need a 2-bedroom. So studios will work for everyone. more studios - but still less than a 2-bedroom cost me. So will hopefully need less points.

 

[DVCGeek]

Since I bought on the assumption that at the end the net value would be ZERO I am fine with that.

I also don't think of DVC as an asset to leave someone.

Same here. Besides, I have two extra motivations:

1) My kids are a cat and a dog. They aren't allowed in DVC properties...

2) I'll only be in my mid-80s when BLT (currently my only resort) expires; I am HOPING to use it up myself! My DW is 4.5 years younger than me, so at least one of us ought to get to since average life expectancies generally go up...

 

[logan115]

You have a declining asset. The value will go down as it gets closer to the end using most normal logic.


Since I bought on the assumption that at the end the net value would be ZERO I am fine with that.

Another vote for the assumptions above. When I think about it, I assume that the net value would be zero.

If I buy in today, and sell in 15 years and get some $$ for it I would consider that icing on the cake knowing that I got at least 7-10 trips to WDW and priceless family memories out of it.

And who knows, if I ended up with a couple of grand that "came outta nowhere" in 15 years, maybe I'd use that money to buy myself something nice............. like DVC

Chris

 

[rkwier]

Originally Posted by CarolA

I also don't think of DVC as an asset to leave someone. It can easily be considered a liablity. Leaving someone an "asset" that requires maintence fees, park tickets, trips to Orlando is not exactly giving them "cash" LOL! What if your children/grandchildren don't really like Disney, can't afford the trips etc? Was that an asset? Especially if near the end it becomes next to impossible to sell. (And that's not outside the realm of possiblity. Happens to lots of timeshares!)

I think this is a great point. My DMIL and DFIL purchased a timeshare about 18 years ago. They purchased enough weeks to leave one to each of their children and grandchildren. We have vacationed there with them before, and let's just say it is not up to DVC quality. We have absolutely no desire whatsoever to have this given to us, so we will either have to sell it or just give it to another family member.

We also bought DVC for our own enjoyment. We knew that it would be an expiring investment, but we will be in our 90's if we live that long. We looked at it kind of like purchasing a new car, which we typically keep for about 7 years. For about the same price, we get 50 years of prepaid vacations. It just made sense to us.

 

[CarolA]

I
We also bought DVC for our own enjoyment. We knew that it would be an expiring investment, but we will be in our 90's if we live that long. We looked at it kind of like purchasing a new car, which we typically keep for about 7 years. For about the same price, we get 50 years of prepaid vacations. It just made sense to us.

I never thought of that way but you are right. Most folks spend more on a car then thier DVC. And we know the value of car after 10 years or so......

 

[spiceycat]

I never thought of that way but you are right. Most folks spend more on a car then thier DVC. And we know the value of car after 10 years or so......

completely depends upon the car - I drive a honda for several reasons - one being the resale value.

 

[DisDaydreamer]

I am in agreement with most here. The value will surely go down. I have considered selling since we bought at $65 and might be able to sell at $85 and get something newer to pass on. But as Carol suggests, by the time they inherited this it might not be a good thing to own. We might have to sell because of the economy, but otherwise, we're happy to keep it for now and take what if gives us.

 

[CarolA]

completely depends upon the car - I drive a honda for several reasons - one being the resale value.

Just looked

1998 Honda Accord basic 4 door sedan, assuming 10,000 miles per year

Current value $5,000

My Saab (8 years, 80,000 miles is worth around 6 to 7)

Neither of them are exactly "investments"

 

[DVCPAT]

I am also wondering at what year DVC will dramaticly decrease in value due to the pending end of contract.
I think that once we get with in about 25 years the value will drop.
WHa thappens to us when contract expires ?

DVC value will always correlate with WDW resort rack rates. If Disney is still going strong in 10 or 20 years, it’s value will reflect the cost of a Disney resort vacation. I actually think a ten or fifteen year contract would be attractive to some people who don’t want a long term commitment.