Is DVC a good buy for someone who usually stays in moderates?

[aceshigh73]

as we long decided that financial security and enjoying life had to be balanced.

This is really the answer to every question about if DVC makes financial sense. You take care of other debts first (minus mortgage), pay off your credit cards, keep the car loans and leases in check and save for future expenses (including retirement), then DVC makes sense if that’s what you want to do.

 

[reddog21]

Of course to truly get that return you're keeping it all invested / reinvesting any distributions. Who needs a vacation!?

I think some far more interesting math would be investing the $25k & earmarking distributions for travel (say a high-yield dividend or interest strategy) = how much cash would you have to put in out of pocket to stay x nights in a moderate
vs.
the $25k tied up in DVC and then dues owing = how many nights' accommodations for the negative cash flow

Kind of like treating the $25k as sunk either way and then seeing what your negative cash flow becomes each year for the same nights of vacations.
I think first you peg the "how many nights" part based on the 150pt mark, to provide the X nights for the cash side of the comparison. Then you keep those dates apples-to-apples. This would ignore the capital gains potential on either side (which is possible, like in your case, for DVC, but eventually actually amortizes to zero), but could be fun to just look at on a cash basis.

Your definition of fun is entirely different than mine.

 

[Brian Noble]

The reason "investing" comes up is not to compare investing vs. going on vacation. The reason it comes up is to compare two different ways of paying for the same vacations:

1. Buy and use a DVC membership, which costs $B to buy and $D in dues each year.
2. Put $B in a separate account, invested in a low-fee index fund. Each year add $D to that fund. Pay for your WDW lodging out of that account.

If in Scenario #2 you have money left over when the DVC deed expires, then renting is cheaper than buying. If you run out of money in Scenario #2 before the deed expires, then owning is cheaper than renting.

 

[Genie+]

Paying cash for Moderates gives more flexibility to pick and choose with less lead time. DVC is tighter in that regard though it has more choices to open.

Rates on moderates can vary wildly. At 12-13 days per year I assume you have an annual pass. I stayed recently at Coronado for about $180 with an AP discount. Even after taxes it was cheaper than maintenance fees for one night in many DVC studios. DVC is not an obvious yes.

Yes you can. That’s about as cheap as it gets, doubles and triples from there.

At 10 months out DH decided we’d visit the week before Christmas since kids will be out of college. Rack rates are eye watering! Plus as a cash party of 4 we’d be paying for the extra 2 guests 18+. All the moderates start at over $450/nt for just the standard view before those extra fees.

This is WDW high season (along with spring break), offers go nowhere near something like 35-40% off. The best offers will be on more expensive room categories like preferred view with 5th sleeper and lucky to find 20% off. The best offer will be the least popular rooms in the pack. Moderates for Dec 16-23 are looking at minimum $2,500 and easily can go over $3k.

These are the 2 ends of the spectrum. The lowest mod rates during slow season vs highest cash season that intersects DVC’s lower than average point season.

We booked a week split stay just under 150 pts DVC Poly and BWV in the highest view categories, 7 Seas Lagoon Lake View and Boardwalk View. Even taking a high estimate of TVM where we plump up our $12pp VGF direct points to $20pp to make up for lost opportunity, It’s costing us $1800 for that week (or $3000 at the plumped up $20pp).

I don’t know if anybody even got a moderate Dec 16-23 under $2500* total, probably not. I checked the deals for the rooms we booked, Poly was $1400/nt for what we booked, $1100/nt was the best deal. BW $1100, and $850 with the best deal. Neither include extra adult head beyond 2 fees that would apply to cash.

We would’ve never paid the discounted $7,000 rate. The moderate for $3k? Maybe. With DVC I’m paying somewhere between $2k and $3k depending how you look at it for Poly Lakeview and Boardwalk View.

I’m not saving money. I’m getting access to more exciting inventory within my budget. DVC also opens more frugal options like OKW is only 80 points that week. AKL or SSR 95pts. Those will cost much less than any moderate.


*If anybody has a similar moderate booking I’d appreciate sharing the real world price.

 

[Brian Noble]

If anybody has a similar moderate booking I’d appreciate sharing the real world price.

There is a Winter discount on right now, through 12/25. The lowest Mod I can find for 12/16-23 is a Standard room at CSR. With tax sleeping 4 adults it is just a shade under $2700.

 

[Brian Noble]

You are also cherry-picking the dates. It the second highest nightly cost in cash (all in Holiday), but it is a below-average season for DVC points---this week is one of the (if not the single) best value(s) in the DVC system.

 

[SheSingsAlong]

I'm not saving money. I’m getting access to more exciting inventory within my budget. DVC also opens more frugal options like OKW is only 80 points that week. AKL or SSR 95pts. Those will cost much less than any moderate.

This is my rationale for the value of DCV, better said than I could put it, so thank you. I'm not saving money, but my money is getting me more value.

 

[Genie+]

You are also cherry-picking the dates. It the second highest nightly cost in cash (all in Holiday), but it is a below-average season for DVC points---this week is one of the (if not the single) best value(s) in the DVC system.

Yes. I did try to make that clear but it‘s within a lengthy post.

These are the 2 ends of the spectrum. The lowest mod rates during slow season vs highest cash season that intersects DVC’s lower than average point season.

The $180 Coronado was the other end of this spectrum. Pretty much the lowest cash room in the lowest cash season.

 

[Genie+]

This is my rationale for the value of DCV, better said than I could put it, so thank you. I'm not saving money, but my money is getting me more value.

Yes and it‘s fun to do so!

 

[Brian Noble]

I've not done this before, but I might look at my "normal" week--late Feb/early Mar, between the President's Week and peak spring break waves, comparing an SSR Standard studio to a water view Mod (which seems about as fair a room comparison as you could make).

 

[Genie+]

I've not done this before, but I might look at my "normal" week--late Feb/early Mar, between the President's Week and peak spring break waves, comparing an SSR Standard studio to a water view Mod (which seems about as fair a room comparison as you could make).

We stayed moderates many times between POR, CSR and CBR. Totally enjoyable, always with some discount. What held me back from DVC was the commitment. Years of renting points convinced me to buy. We keep going back regardless.

 

[kilik64]

What’s been said a couple of times is where we landed, not saving over what we would normally book, but getting into the deluxe resorts for around the same. If not for dvc we’d never pay to stay at any of the deluxe resorts on cash.

 

[Jack Kerouac]

I ran spreadsheets on this subject for years. I could never align the lifetime cost of dvc with my values, my cash on hand, or my moderately sized brain.

Last trip in 2022 we paid an outrageous amount of money to stay at CBR. We got a discount too but discounts were small last summer. We enjoyed the resort very much, but I knew for the price we paid I would be a quarter of the way through a small resale contract. I wanted boardwalk but 100 point contracts were too high. I set my sights on okw. Lovely resort and can swap out at 7 months for now for 1 beds

I saved my pennies, stalked the boards, and closed on a 100 point okw contract this month. Paid cash. Booking next month for next summer. 100 points gets me a week in a studio every year, a one bed every other year, manageable dues, current ability to try different resorts, and doesn't lock me into anything unmanageable for 50 years if renting dissolves or I can't go anywhere other than okw for any reason.

I had a lot of doubt and uncertainty while navigating the resale process but I am good now. Every time I have a bad day at work (every day) I sail on over to my dashboard and look at that promise waiting.

I have also unlocked the potential to purchase a smaller direct contract. I might find I want to secure a tiny bwv contract or 50 points at a restricted resort in 3 years when my child is 18 and can go on the deed.

We live in upstate New York so a resale contract i could afford with cash on hand made the most sense.

The universe is literally rubbing my face in the idea that life is short. This is what I want. I did it. I the end, the only break even isn't math related for me.

Good luck.

COVID broke me.

We bought a Poly resale contract in late 2022 after looking to book AoA for ten days and finding the price tag a bit high. The $33,000 for our contract was a lot to swallow, but we had the benefit of not needing to finance it. We stayed at the Poly LV and AKV-Kidani 1BR Savanna View for a total of ten days earlier this month. We saved about 80% over rack rates. Created a ton of memories and my kids can’t wait to go back. We will do BRV for six nights and Poly LV for three nights in 2024. Aulani in 2025 for my 40th. DVC is one of the best decisions we have made. Once you arrive on property, any doubts about your purchase will vanish.