I'm in a similar position, going a week later: 2/19-2/26. Lowest fare from any area airport (DTW/TOL/FNT/LAN) is $250, includes a stop. Lowest direct is about $285. For the moment, I'm planning to hold out a bit, maybe until January---spirit has only crept up, but NWA may come back down. NWA fares have come down slightly over the last few months, particularly for the direct flights.
It's a gamble. If $200 is near your "limit", you might want to lock it in now. Or, it might go down later. If I could get anywhere close to $200 for my week, I'd take it. Once my best options all get close to $300, I'll probably give up and bite.