If crowd calendars are less reliable than they used to be ...

[agavegirl1]

How do you know what's less crowded? Wait times on the app?

A combination of MDE wait times and the “Lines” Ap from touring plans with observed data as well as general knowledge

How do you know what's less crowded? Wait times on the app?

I responded to your quote yesterday on my phone and realize it didn't go anywhere...I use a combination of the MDE App and the "Lines" App from Touring plans with observed wait times from in the park. General knowledge, such as whether MK has a party night (less crowded in the daytime) or which park had EMH the night before but regular hours that day. If I RD an EMH morning park, many times I make my FP+ reservations in the second park as well as dining reservation and know I will at least accomplish those.

ETA: I guess part of the post did...

 

[hsmamato2]

3) Is it Monday? (Don't go to MK)

not 100% sure this is true anymore (tho it's what I always based my plans on in the past) AK is now the BIG draw for that day,and they usually add an emh at Ak on Monday now too I've noticed which adds to the crowds

 

[mdmama76]

A combination of MDE wait times and the “Lines” Ap from touring plans with observed data as well as general knowledge

I responded to your quote yesterday on my phone and realize it didn't go anywhere...I use a combination of the MDE App and the "Lines" App from Touring plans with observed wait times from in the park. General knowledge, such as whether MK has a party night (less crowded in the daytime) or which park had EMH the night before but regular hours that day. If I RD an EMH morning park, many times I make my FP+ reservations in the second park as well as dining reservation and know I will at least accomplish those.

ETA: I guess part of the post did...

Thank you. We always RD so I like the suggestion of FP+ reservations for the second park. Lots of puzzle pieces to put together!

 

[BayouQueen]

As other current threads similar to this one are currently discussing, there is a suspicion that data Disney is gathering using FP+ is being used to schedule park staff in such a way as to disrupt any park planning at all.

I have always been a firm believer in "try to avoid the EMH park". I would wait at buses in the AM and see the long line in the morning for the EMH park and the short line for the park we are planning and would smugly think, "Aha! I am so glad I am not going to the EMH park that day!".

But if Disney has caught onto this using FP+ and staffed accordingly, they can totally ruin this strategy. In fact, they can ruin any strategy by using staffing management to make all lines at all rides be what they think is best for all days at all parks.

I will say that if Disney is in fact doing this, as much as I love WDW, I will either stop going altogether or at minimum cut back on my WDW trips. And whatever anyone thinks of the TP folks, they seem best positioned to tell us if this is happening and provide some kind of analysis. So personally I will keep my eyes and ears open to @lentesta and his staff.

Finally, if all the above is in fact the case, then choosing "best parks" and "best time of year to visit" is pointless. The folks in this thread who say "just choose whatever you want and go with it" will have the right idea.

This idea is jaw dropping, but makes perfect sense. Really food for thought. Thanks, HydroGuy.

 

[momimouse27]

What is the thought around here on MK for a Sunday? We arrive on the 24th of this month and plan for MK on Sunday, EP on Monday. We've been many times before but never this time of year, so I feel almost like a fish out of water....

 

[NH-to-FL]

In reference to the bolded...that's an interesting idea. How well does that work?

The bolded text mentioned is:

I also look for which park had an evening EMH and consider going to that park the following morning.

I have no idea... but it makes me feel like I am doing something smart.

Seriously though, based on a few visits, I do think it makes the first few hours of the park a bit less crowded. Though I have absolutely no scientific data to back it up.

 

[ELLH]

Since I see my post from another thread has been alluded to, I’ll just copy/paste that here rather than reiterate it with different words.

In short, FP+ is all the data Disney needs to properly staff in the manner they see fit. I’m truly surprised people consider my post a revelation but sometimes it takes a little kick to get people thinking. Kind of like my wife reminding me the water valve was shut off and that’s why I couldn’t get the dishwasher to do it’s dang job. (Yep ... I don’t always play with a full deck.)

Anyway... my post below is from this thread:
https://www.disboards.com/members/ellh.389908/

Re: Disney staffing predictions being poor


Disney has all the data they need to accurately (or dang near it) predict crowd levels. I don't buy a) they aren't fully aware of what is going on and b) that it takes them some time to "catch up" to these crowd levels. Since it's inception I've thought, if nothing else, FP+ was just a clever way for Disney to more accurately predict crowd levels and then plan accordingly.

From an analytical POV - as someone who culls and analyzes mounds of data for a living - what could be better for Disney than data that indicates times and dates for various ride reservations. That's exactly what they get when you schedule your FP+. They already had hotel reservations but the variable for where guests would be going was still quite large. With the advent of FP+ they know where guests will be and what those guests plan on doing, practically down to the minute (and the << percentage who change their minds won't affect their analysis/reaction).

Obviously, FP+ doesn't capture ALL guests but it certainly is a strong indication of what they can expect. Considering the FP+ reservation windows guests are permitted, Disney has this information months ahead of time. Disney is staffing *in a manner that suits Disney*. Note the asterisks ...Disney is fully aware of what they are doing. I don't buy anyone saying otherwise. I may not agree with/like the result. It may be part of the learning process for Disney ... I'd be willing to concede that. However, these crowd levels and "understaffing" are certainly not an oversight on Disney's part. I'd bet on that.

 

[Davey Jones II]

The bolded text mentioned is:



I have no idea... but it makes me feel like I am doing something smart.

Seriously though, based on a few visits, I do think it makes the first few hours of the park a bit less crowded. Though I have absolutely no scientific data to back it up.

It makes sense to me. Since a lot of people went to that park yesterday for EMH, it would follow that less people will go today. But wouldn't the same reasoning apply to morning EMH?

 

[NH-to-FL]

It makes sense to me. Since a lot of people went to that park yesterday for EMH, it would follow that less people will go today. But wouldn't the same reasoning apply to morning EMH?

Yes, excellent point! I will add that thought to my equation. Though I also will confess that DW and I are doing fewer rope drops these days, shifting more to picking off a couple of last minute FP's to enhance our Disney walks.

But I still like those less crowded first few hours.

 

[crazedprincess]

I usually don't pay attention to crowd calendars and I plan what we want to do. In the past, I did plan a trip around crowd calendars and it ended up being wrong.

We always like to start with MK and this trip that will be on a Wed. As of right now, it also looks like it will be evening EMH. We don't care and my teenage daughters are super excited to be in the park until midnight. I'm just planning on it being crowded no matter what day and where we go.

 

[KyleAfterAWhile]

My basic strategy is to avoid parks with EMH, avoid MK on Saturdays and Mondays, .

Unfortunately, this no longer holds true like it once did.

 

[Davey Jones II]

Unfortunately, this no longer holds true like it once did.

Please elaborate. These strategies have no validity now, or less validity? And any idea why?

 

[SaintsManiac]

Booked our flights today, so we'll be able to hit MK on Saturday evening after we arrive. *gasp*

 

[ENJDisneyFan]

Unfortunately, this no longer holds true like it once did.

Why do you say that?

 

[OneinThree]

Please elaborate. These strategies have no validity now, or less validity? And any idea why?

Why do you say that?

Two different questions. Why I personally would say that is easy -I have regular access to the parks as an AP-holding FL resident and can easily observe what's actually going on in the parks vs the impression given by a number of sources over the internet. Why the "strategies" don't work? That's more difficult to answer. I think a major component to that is what is being "sold" by the purveyors of these strategies vs what people are expecting from them. Everyone has to do something, and I'm not here to knock these sites. At the same time, I think you give people the wrong impression when you say, "crowd level 3" versus "crowd level 9". Not so long ago, "3 versus 9" was a much more significant difference than it is today, where almost every day is just downright crowded. While "3" is only 1/3 of "9", there's just no way that this translates in any practical sense to the reality in the parks right now.

 

[Satchmo128]

We go against the grain of many here, but honestly we go where we want, when we want. Before I joined this board, I didn't even know there was such a thing as a "crowd calendar". Beyond very broad generalizations there's no way they can have any statistical accuracy. Far too many unpredictable and uncontrollable variables.

So we have always just picked our parks based on what we wanted. Usually sort of a round robin format. A,B,C,D,A,B,C,D, etc... We'll mix it up some, but it's based on our own desires and has nothing to do with MK on a Saturday, or EMH on a Tuesday. We don't even look to see what parks have EMH, it's irrelevant to us. If we want to be in MK on Monday, we're there. We've been to MK so many times, but I have no clue how many were on a Monday or a Thursday, and I couldn't even tell you which days seemed more crowded. Not on our radar. It doesn't make any sense to us to avoid a park you may want to go to simply because someone, somewhere says it may or may not be crowded. Why restrict your vacation like that? If you want to be in MK on Monday, then go. I recognize not everyone thinks that way, it's just our way.

We go where we want, when we want, too. Other than avoiding F&WF on the weekend, we plan our days around ADRs we can get or special occasion celebrations we may have. We change plans fairly easily, too, including hopping.