Some commentary on Southwest's schedule extension patterns in 2020 and how they've varied from prior years:
Southwest has always had a somewhat predictable pattern to their release schedule dating back to 2017 and even prior (I've only kept good records since 2017). For example:
- In both 2018 and 2019, they had 7 schedule extensions.
- Their big holiday release (covering Thanksgiving, Christmas & New Years) occurred right around the end of May
- The other extensions added 1-2 months of flight "inventory" each time as is normal.
Last year however, the typical late June release never happened. It was delayed until August and each release thereafter was delayed approximately 1 month. At the time we surmised that this was due to the ongoing 737 Max grounding but of course COVID then followed on its heels in March of 2020. Southwest completely skipped their late January release in early 2020 but yet they still had their Late-May holiday release.
The net result of all of this is that Southwest will only have FOUR (4) schedule extensions in the calendar year 2020 (Mar/May/Aug/Dec). For people that have suggested that it "feels" like we are waiting longer for Southwest to put out their schedule - that's because we are! Here's some analysis on the "days of inventory" that Southwest is making available:
This figure is calculated as the difference between a point it time (i.e. today) and the last date available for booking. For purposes of these calculations I'm assuming that the 12/10 schedule extension will remain on that date and be the last to occur in 2020.
Average Days Inventory Available:
- 2018 = 217 days
- 2019 = 220 days
- 2020 = 189 days
- So on average, we are seeing approx. 1 month less in flights available to book on any given day
Maximum/Minimum Days Inventory Available:
- 2018 = 263 (max) / 157 (min)
- 2019 = 243 (max) / 144 (min)
- 2020 = 241 (max) / 123 (min)
On December 9, 2020 we will see the smallest amount of Southwest Inventory available since as far back as my records go (close to 4 years) at 123 days. Barely 4 months worth of flights will be showing on the schedule at that time and even after that release we won't have 6 months of flights available (based on what they currently show). Only time will tell if Southwest will hold to this new tighter inventory control or not. Anecdotally, I believe Southwest used to operate this way and gradually over time they actually increased the amount of inventory they made available - so for people who flew SW a lot back in 2007-2010 for example, this might feel a lot like it did then. Many years ago it would've been crazy to see SW have 8+ months of inventory available.
The reason SW has operated this way historically was because they RARELY would adjust their schedule. Of course the 737-Max and COVID environment has completely thrown that out the window. I know we all want things to get back to normal on so many levels, but hopefully one of those "back to normal" things is Southwest getting their schedule process under control so that releases occur in a timely fashion and schedule changes once again become a rarity!
Not sure what dh's did...?
