Hurricane watch 2018

Discussion in 'Disney World Tips' started by Spaghetti Cat, Aug 30, 2018.

  1. Spaghetti Cat

    Spaghetti Cat Earning My Ears

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    No hurricanes in August, fantastic. September looks good so far, I think NOAA NHC is the best source:

    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

    Here's a better view (also linked within the site above) posted by ILoveMyDVC in another thread:

    Here's a scary sounding story from USA Today Posted by Rich M in another thread:

    Good luck to all.


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    Last edited: Aug 31, 2018
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  2. AntimonyER

    AntimonyER Mouseketeer

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    I think we were due for a quiet season, and I am glad that so far it has been one. Looks like one is spinning up off Africa, but will be a couple weeks before it gets near the US mainland, if it does. We go to FL mid Oct, so will be watching closely starting here soon.
     
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  4. SaintsManiac

    SaintsManiac DIS Veteran

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    https://weather.com/storms/hurrican...pment-possible-gulf-of-mexico-florida-bahamas

    At a Glance:

    • A tropical wave emerging off Africa, Invest 90L, is likely to develop.
    • This system may enhance rain in the Cabo Verde Islands.
    • It should remain over the central Atlantic Ocean into next week.
    • A Caribbean tropical wave will move into the Gulf of Mexico next week.
    • There's a very low chance that wave might develop in the Gulf next week.
    • Regardless, rounds of locally heavy rain are expected along the Gulf Coast.

    Despite gaining strength, the majority of forecast model guidance suggests it will eventually curve northward into the central Atlantic Ocean, not posing a threat to any other land areas, including the United States or Caribbean Sea. (Invest 90L)
     
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  5. Klayfish

    Klayfish DIS Veteran

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    Predicting hurricanes more than 24-48 hours out is sort of like predicting crowds at WDW months out...can't be done with any true accuracy value. Keep your eyes open and deal with it as it comes.
     
  6. Nakkira

    Nakkira DIS Veteran

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    I will be watching this thread and holding my breath for the next couple of weeks.
     
  7. DisHmsklMom

    DisHmsklMom Mouseketeer

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    One of our favorite sites is Tropical Tidbits, he gives great explanations on what should effect the storms. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/
    You can sign up to get email notifications every time he posts a new video on YouTube.
    The forcast model section is really nice too.
     
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  8. Pdollar88

    Pdollar88 DIS Veteran

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    Following along, just in case. I travel September 5-10. Thank you for creating the thread! I'm feeling more calm about things after hearing from calmer folks.
     
  9. sjs314

    sjs314 "Laughter is timeless, imagination has no age, and

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    We do not normally travel during hurricane season so this thread will be greatly appreciated as this year we are traveling in October
     
  10. PSUGuy

    PSUGuy Bill From PA

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    Yeah, better start watching this. The last 2 Food&Wine trips we missed major hurricanes by less than a week each time.

    Bill From PA
     
  11. SaintsManiac

    SaintsManiac DIS Veteran

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    That's a good site! I follow Mike's Weather Page on Facebook, too. Good stuff.

    Link: www.spaghettimodels.com
     
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  12. OhDannyBoy

    OhDannyBoy DISdad #850

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    Rest assured, I just paid $ 5000 for storm shutters on my windows, so there will be no hurricanes hitting anywhere near Florida for the next 5 years.

    All joking aside, it's been a very quiet season so far and looks to stay that way.

    Truth.

    I've lived in Broward county Florida my entire life. I remember in '92 (I was 10) when Andrew was supposed to come right over top of Broward but swung south instead hitting Miami and Homestead the last few hours.

    Same sort of thing happened last year with Irma. It was supposed to come right over top of us here in Broward, but shifted and the brunt of it went more west coast. We still took a beating as did Miami and the Keys but nothing like we expected.
     
  13. Spridell

    Spridell Mouseketeer

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    I am a Floridian that lives in South Florida and studies meteorology.

    - Yes it has been quiet so far

    - From the looks of things on the long range computer models YES September we will see an uptick in storms in the Atlantic. DOES NOT mean a storm will hit anywhere though.

    now that being said, it is extremely hard to predict where and how strong these storms will be more than 5 days out. Things change DRASTICALLY in weather very fast (Irma last year completely changed course within 5 days until landfall)

    We can take a look at the long range computer models and we can look at the upper atmosphere and the steering flow which can give us an "IDEA" of where storms MIGHT go.

    From what long range models are showing, For the first 10 days of Sept storms should be steered North and OUT TO SEA. There MIGHT and I say MIGHT be a period from Sept 15 until around Oct 1 where storms could be pushed closer to the coast.

    It is a wait and see game.


    FWIW: Next week there will be a Tropical Wave that will pass through Florida into the Gulf. It will be very rainy in Disney and most of FL Monday and Tuesday of next week.
     
  14. Rich M

    Rich M DIS Veteran

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    Thank you for joining this thread. Your knowledge will be much appreciated. I will be there Oct 8th to Oct 20th with a Caribbean Cruise on Oct 11th. Thinking good thoughts with something completely out of my hands.
     
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  15. GirlDreamer

    GirlDreamer DIS Veteran

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    There’s also an app from the National Hurricane Centre called NOAA Now whete you can keep an eye on it.
     
  16. AntimonyER

    AntimonyER Mouseketeer

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    We thank you for your sacrifice!

    I live in the savannah area now, and after years of avoiding just about everything, to get hit with two so close together was a wake up call. Thankfully impacts were relatively minor compared to what could have been. I grew up in c. Fla, and same kind of thing, years of near misses and then 2004 happened. My parents have homes in marathon and Bradenton, too, so Irma pretty much hit my entire family on its way by.
     
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  17. emmabelle

    emmabelle Crazy cat lady who loves Disney

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    this is what I was talking about on the MNSSHP thread.



    Monday is my HS day, I was planning on rope dropping SDD, hopefully that will still happen. Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday are passholder events from 7am to 9am at HS and even though we have AP's, I wasn't fast enough to secure a spot. I'm nervous to switch my HS day because I think that TSL will already be crowded at opening because of this. :scratchin:scratchin:scratchin
     
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  18. carseatguru

    carseatguru Earning My Ears

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    Following, although I think my Sept. 2-7 trip should be ok.
     
  19. princess_jamie

    princess_jamie Mouseketeer

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    Following along from Canada as we are headed to WDW Sept 15-22. Just glad its not snow :P I am having faith that everything will be okay weather wise!
     
  20. emmabelle

    emmabelle Crazy cat lady who loves Disney

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    These are our dates too.

    I think we'll be out of FL before anything substantial coming off Africa. Hoping the tropical wave currently over Puerto Rico goes way south. ::yes::::yes::
     
  21. MikeNamez

    MikeNamez Mouseketeer

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    You and me both... Sept 11th cant come soon enough lol.
     
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