How Much Longer Will We Have to be Quarantined? (Please educate me on COVID-19)

MaddieB223

Mouseketeer
Joined
Mar 20, 2020
Hi all,
I just had some thoughts/questions regarding the COVID-19 madness. Please feel free to educate me on this subject!
In your opinions, how much longer do you think Americans will need to be quarantined for/adhere to social distancing/isolate for? It's been about 2 weeks so far and things haven't improved, in fact it feels as though they've gotten worse. Multiple people say it will still be 12/18/24 months before a COVID-19 vaccine is available. Do they really expect us to live like this until then? How much longer until we can be in public again? My extroverted self is really having a tough time mentally dealing with all of this :sad1:
 
Hi all,
I just had some thoughts/questions regarding the COVID-19 madness. Please feel free to educate me on this subject!
In your opinions, how much longer do you think Americans will need to be quarantined for/adhere to social distancing/isolate for? It's been about 2 weeks so far and things haven't improved, in fact it feels as though they've gotten worse. Multiple people say it will still be 12/18/24 months before a COVID-19 vaccine is available. Do they really expect us to live like this until then? How much longer until we can be in public again? My extroverted self is really having a tough time mentally dealing with all of this :sad1:

Well, I'm an introvert so I'm doing okay, but I too get bored!! I like to be out and about but not necessarily talking to people. :)

Anyway, just in my own mind, I think we need to be social distancing through the end of May. Our military agency told us to prep for 8-12 weeks (and we are finishing week 2). I think that's the only way to get real data on the behavior of the spread and to let the hospitals keep up as best they can. At that point, it is summertime. Maybe time to see how the virus fares in heat (although they should know that from Singapore and other places in Asia that were dealing with this during their summer). Many colds/viruses/influenza slack off during the summer months because heat/humidity seem to make it harder for them to survive in the air. But who knows. Just being outdoors keeps people less "hudled" and helps. So I'm thinking we ease up a bit in the summer. But people who can still work from home should and large gatherings should still be stopped. Just my two cents.
 
The outbreak originated in China in December. They are just now slowly getting back to normal life. NYC currently has the biggest outbreak in the US. It is expected to peak there in about 20 days. Peak, not be done. Other areas of the country aren’t far behind. Find a reputable news agency & follow their updates.
 
They knew it was going to get worse than what it was. They slowed it up. It’s bad out there but it’s not as bad if they wouldn’t of did anything.
 


In the UK, we've only just completed our first week of lockdown, and cases have been climbing up, yet there's hope it's working. All I can say is that you follow your government's advice and restrictions, and it should blow by the time Summer comes around.
 
Tests are taking up to 8-10 days to come back so the numbers we are seeing aren't current.
IF, and that's a big IF, we had a country-wide shelter in place, we could slow this down in 2-3 weeks. However, we don't. And plenty of selfish, entitled people, even on the DIS, are still going to friend's houses, stores to shop, parks to play basketball etc.
So, we could be at this for a LONG time unless our federal government puts down a COUNTRY-WIDE shelter in place.
 


One thing to remember is that the results of social distancing and isolation aren't (and were never expected to be) immediate. The incubation period for COVID-19 can be two weeks or so, meaning that lots of the people who are starting to show symptoms now were first exposed to it back before the shutdowns and social distancing started. Part of the reason that isolation is so important is because it's impossible to know if you've already been exposed, since you could be in the incubation period or even asymptomatic (lots of people are testing positive without showing any symptoms, although they can still pass it on to other people). Any impact from isolation this week will come into play in the next couple weeks, not right away.

Also, while, yes, the numbers keep getting worse each day, they're not getting worse *because* of the isolation - by isolating we're trying to make the numbers go up more slowly. We knew the numbers were going to go up, and we know they will continue to go up for a while, but by avoiding other people in order to avoid transmitting it to lots of others, we are hoping to slow down the increase so that some of the people who are sick now can start getting better before others get sick, so that we don't overwhelm our hospitals. If a few people at a time get sick, we can handle it, but if everyone gets sick at the same time, we don't have enough space, equipment, or healthcare workers to manage them all at once. If all our hospital beds are full with COVID-19 patients, we won't be able to treat more as they keep getting sick, and we also won't be able to treat people with other sicknesses and injuries. So it's really important to try to prevent contact with others as much as possible so that the disease will not spread as quickly.
 
Hi all,
I just had some thoughts/questions regarding the COVID-19 madness. Please feel free to educate me on this subject!
In your opinions, how much longer do you think Americans will need to be quarantined for/adhere to social distancing/isolate for? It's been about 2 weeks so far and things haven't improved, in fact it feels as though they've gotten worse. Multiple people say it will still be 12/18/24 months before a COVID-19 vaccine is available. Do they really expect us to live like this until then? How much longer until we can be in public again? My extroverted self is really having a tough time mentally dealing with all of this :sad1:

We are being told 12 weeks
 
The short answer is, we have no idea. Watch what happens in China (but with a grain of salt, since they're now admitting that they're not counting mild/asymptomatic cases in their counts) as they start to relax restrictions. Keep an eye on Italy for the trajectory we're likely to follow with primarily voluntary restrictions in place. Right now, no country can honestly claim to be on the other side of the outbreak I don't think, but China is closest so whether or not the virus resurges there as life returns to normal will tell us a lot about what comes next.

ETA: Only China and South Korea have managed to produce a sustained drop in daily cases identified, and they've both done so via measures that are exactly the opposite of what the US is doing - they did mass testing and targeted containment, we're attempting mass containment with targeted testing. None of the other nations that took a lockdown path seem to be making much headway. Italy's new case reports are down somewhat from peak but are still in the thousands per day and don't appear to be trending downward, and they've had a national lockdown order in place for 18 days now.

I can't take credit for this, but here's the best info I've seen;
Link from another thread

That site only charts peak medical system demand based on lockdown conditions. And it assumes those conditions will spread nationwide and continue for the entire duration of the simulation/projection period. It doesn't attempt to forecast an end to those measures.
 
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I agree with the 6-8 weeks before we can relax some of the restrictions. But we are still many more months away from business as usual.
 
The short answer is, we have no idea.
^^^^^This.

Don't forget, we are just getting started with testing, and we're only testing people who meet certain criteria. So we're basically only identifying those people who appear to have some symptoms who are positive for covid-19.

Here's a chart that shows total identified US cases. If you follow the link below and look at the actual interactive chart, you'll see that one week ago, March 20, the US had 19,367 reported cases. Today's number is 100,972 and you can see the trend from the chart.

Also, look at the trend line from Feb 15 - March 15 -- and then look at the trend since March 15. Just getting started.

483786

Here's a link to this site, which has numerous other charts on the subject.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
 
Well, here in California it was a week ago that the stay at home order went into effect. So it really has just begun. I started working from home Monday. I work for a major corporation and today they extended our work at home time frame until April 17. Considering we did almost zero work at home as recently was a week ago in an essential service business, it has been eye opening how easy the transition has been. Actually, the handful of folks who are still having to report to work are kind of upset that they haven't been transitioned to work from home. I kind of wonder after this if they will rethink whether they need a huge building or whether it would make more sense to permanently have much of the staff work from home.

My wife works for a competitor, that I think everyone would have expected them to be 10 times more prepared to deal with this situation, and they aren't. Very few of their employees are working from home.

They keep comparing this to a war time situation. The last real war time situation we had was World War II and that impacted people's lives for years. I don't think this will go years, but it will be more than the week or two it has been. And to be honest, we're saved hundreds of dollars in the last two weeks just buying basics, and not blowing money on movies, entertainment and non-essentials.
 
Hi all,
I just had some thoughts/questions regarding the COVID-19 madness. Please feel free to educate me on this subject!
In your opinions, how much longer do you think Americans will need to be quarantined for/adhere to social distancing/isolate for? It's been about 2 weeks so far and things haven't improved, in fact it feels as though they've gotten worse. Multiple people say it will still be 12/18/24 months before a COVID-19 vaccine is available. Do they really expect us to live like this until then? How much longer until we can be in public again? My extroverted self is really having a tough time mentally dealing with all of this :sad1:
Tons of free content accurate information here:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive...show&region=TOP_BANNER&context=storyline_menu

and here:

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/summary.html
and here too:

https://www.who.int/health-topics/coronavirus#tab=tab_1
Read, think about it, and repeat;).
 

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