How many years before V1 DVC resale is worthless?

[mjr0483]

I probably will hang onto my OKW until 2042. But was curious how long there will be a resale market before there just aren't enough years left.
It has to be getting there.

 

[Sandisw]

My guess, I’d say 10 years and it will be substantially reduced. Within 5 years, of ending. it will be hard to get much.

I have one BWV contract left and like to convince my hubby to sell it in the next few years and rebuy at VGF or BLT.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

DVC should compare to the cost of paying for a room onsite via Disney direct. There also will be some comparison to other DVC resorts. Anyway I'd expect it to start declining once the comparison to cash rooms means it's a higher cost but that still will leave value with it until much closer than the expiration.

It's all just a guess though for any of us. Back when I joined the boards very knowledgeable DVC and timeshare owners were stating it was going to start declining. IMO Location and Disney's own price increases have kept the base value of ownership with the product.

 

[Brian Noble]

As long as dues are substantially less than it costs to rent from an owner, I suspect there will be at least *some* residual value. Not much but some.

 

[paults]

we are selling when we hit 20 yrs left on our BWV

 

[minthorne]

My expiration dates are when I am 72 for BWV and 84 for SSR. I hope they expire before I do

 

[jerseyduke]

I suspect 8-10 years.
Once you get under 10, there is not a lot of time to make up savings, plus closing costs eat into that, then there is ROFR. Plus I dont know how well maintained the rooms will be. BRV is getting a hard goods refresh, will it be the last one? 22 years is a long time.

My guess is, under 10 years, you would be better off just renting the points out as opposed to selling the contract, I think that is where better value will be, because that market is not affected by years remaining on a contract. If I was to stay at boardwalk in 2041 renting points is just as good as an option as it is today.

 

[BillPA]

From today...22 years.

 

[nicki.momof3]

This is a great point. Why would someone pay less to rent today than 2041? To them the expiration date doesn't matter.

My guess is, under 10 years, you would be better off just renting the points out as opposed to selling the contract, I think that is where better value will be, because that market is not affected by years remaining on a contract. If I was to stay at boardwalk in 2041 renting points is just as good as an option as it is today.

 

[MBTigger]

I suspect that the "back of the envelope" estimate of value will tend to get closer to the rental point cost.

That would be (Purchase price per point / Years on Contract + Yearly dues < $15).

Here I am going make the assumption that all rental points are roughly equal and are worth $15 on the open market. That's not quite true, but this is all estimates anyway. Let's look at "desirable properties" like BCV and BWV.

If we say dues are $7/yr, and the years are 10, this gives us a MAXIMUM value of $80 in TODAYS dollars. Lets call this the "Rental Price"

If the sell price is close enough to the "Rental Price", owners who no longer use or need their proprieties will sell instead of finding renters for the next 10 years. People will buy contracts for the ability to make reservations themselves and to "own the magic" - even for just a short time. With a shorter term commitment people can buy confident they they will be using DVC for the next 10 years. How close to the rental price will that be? I would guess within 10% of that $80. $75?

OKW has dues of $8/yr and has a "Rental Cost" of $70 per point 10 years out. I doubt OKW will be near $70 per point., but I suspect it will be closer to the rental cost than it is now. I might hazard a guess between $55 and $60 (once again in TODAYS $$ - not accounting for inflation or Disney above inflation price hikes.

In the last few years, I think the equation will hold, but there will be less incentive to sell. Renting points a few times is easier than selling. I suspect it will not be a matter of value, but whether it is worth the trouble to sell a contract
with 5 years left on it....

MB

 

[Sandisw]

As long as dues are substantially less than it costs to rent from an owner, I suspect there will be at least *some

Yes, for the owners to keep. But if trying to sell, the selling price plus the dues would need to stay well below renting or cash stays to entice a buyer.

 

[thanxfornoticin]

I might be in the minority, but we're looking to continue using our OKW and BC ownership right up until it runs out in 2042! I guess I've never really looked closely at the resale concerns. I hope I still have my health and walking legs in another 22 years!

 

[Bearval]

I probably will hang onto my OKW until 2042. But was curious how long there will be a resale market before there just aren't enough years left.
It has to be getting there.

I would guess at 5 years out it would be worthless. Most likely the resale brokers are going to demand a fixed commission or a larger percentage for the listing and selling of your timeshare since they would make less selling a property close to the expiration date and the buyer will still have to pay the same costs for title search and other closing costs regardless of the purchase price.

 

[Bearval]

I would guess at 5 years out it would be worthless. Most likely the resale brokers are going to demand a fixed commission or a larger percentage for the listing and selling of your timeshare since they would make less selling a property close to the expiration date and the buyer will still have to pay the same costs for title search and other closing costs regardless of the purchase price.

One other thing to add here is that small contracts (50 points or less)which now command a premium would definitely have few offers due to closing costs for a buyer which could add up to very large part of the purchase price for a small contract.

 

[Sandisw]

I would guess at 5 years out it would be worthless. Most likely the resale brokers are going to demand a fixed commission or a larger percentage for the listing and selling of your timeshare since they would make less selling a property close to the expiration date and the buyer will still have to pay the same costs for title search and other closing costs regardless of the purchase price.

I am not sure I’d see a reason for a broker doing this. Years ago, contracts were selling for $50 to $60 a point and the commission was the same for those as ones selling more,

However, if a broker doesn’t think the contracts will sell, I could see them just Turing down the option to list.

 

[Pooh12863]

Anyone concerned about resale value should probably sell now, no one knows what tomorrow brings.

 

[Heather07438]

I've wondered too. Is it possible that 10-15 years from now DVC offers contract extensions for resorts that expire in 2042? I get the feeling something will change and make the scenario different from how we see it today.

 

[Bearval]

I've wondered too. Is it possible that 10-15 years from now DVC offers contract extensions for resorts that expire in 2042? I get the feeling something will change and make the scenario different from how we see it today.

No they will not. They most likely will sell Vero Beach and Hilton Head off then do major remodeling to the other ones that expire in 2042 then jack up the points needed and resell them.

 

[RobDoc]

From today...22 years.

Actually, it was 22 years on January 31, 2020.

We are now 21+ years and counting!

 

[RobDoc]

IMO, there will be a HUGE challenge regarding AT LEAST the final 2 years (2040 and 2041) where banking and borrowing will be paramount. I won't be surprised if DVC reduces (or removes) that ability during the last few years as there is no way those who have banked into 2041 will be able to use all of their points and 2040 won't likely be any better.

No one will even have any 2042 points EXCEPT those who purchased the OKW extension or purchased contract since that extension was offered in 2007. (The OKW extension added another 15 years into 2057 - but, to date, no extensions have been offered for any of the other 2042 resorts.)

Stay tuned!