How many points today to futureproof against direct resort restrictions over the next 40 years?

[Mouseforward]

Careful, the mouse may get some ideas...they can smell the cheese. If RIV is an Epcot bargain, the mouse may build a second tower after RIV sells out. Key for them would be to build a second tower and sell out before BWV, BCV 2.0 (and maybe YCV 1.0).

See the monorail construction for reference BLT (2009 opening), VGF (2013) , PVB (2015), VGF 2.0 (2022), PVB 2.0 (2024).

Some may say the mouse got lucky, but more than a decade ago, Tikiman nailed their future DVC locations. They may deviate, but wow was Tikiman accurate.

Disney will build a second RIV tower, it is simply too long between now and 2042. I predict it will go where Aruba is now to take advantage of the close Skyliner. They would have to start in about a year to finish the new tower in time to have 40 years left on the contract so it could stay in the same association.

Disney has shown DVC buyers are not afraid of 40 year contracts.

 

[matt and beth]

2042 is 17 years from now. Don’t think in 17 years our family will be too concerned if our BWV gets resold. We will likely move onward and upward to other experiences in the world. WDW while fun, gets monotonous at times. Direct, resale, where, who, what, when, and how.

 

[starsaber25]

If I were to make an educated guess using your money and not mine? I would purchase 1,000 points direct through Disney!

This is a tough question. But looking at point charts right now for Grand Floridian I think you would comfortably need around 600 pts to take into account for some flexibility. As we all know the future resorts will have a much higher point chart.

I only have BLT Resale but this is making me very nervous about the cost of DVC in the future now that I am thinking about it. I'm thinking Riviera and Lakeshore Lodge are going to be the golden resort purchases that everyone will wish they bought in about 20 years.

 

[🍀TwinsMom]

I think 150x3, but I'd do direct. That will get you a studio. I'd shoot for 150+50x3 for lifestyle creep.

 

[UrsulaWantsYourSoul]

And yes of course if you're buying a huge chunk of points it's a good exit strategy to break it up into 100-200 point chunks contracts so you can sell off part of your points w/out having to sell ALL of them. And... smaller chunks of points sell with more ease and a slightly higher value than huge contracts. Plus those who have children often like to have the same amount of contracts as offspring for easy distribution later in life. And... yes you'll get the purchase price discount on total amount of points at once (regardless of how many contracts you break it down into). All the things.

 

[Cfabar1]

This is a tough question. But looking at point charts right now for Grand Floridian I think you would comfortably need around 600 pts to take into account for some flexibility. As we all know the future resorts will have a much higher point chart.

People continue to say this. I continue to wonder how can the points charts become meaningfully higher than VGF and VGC for a few reasons:
1. They are flagship properties that offer flagship amenities that are worth a premium.
2. DVC has lowered the initial buy in to 100 points, and the contract allows DVC to, at their sole discretion, require a 5 night minimum. Future resorts could remove that restriction to be fair.
3. While I do expect BWV and BCV to have a points premium, I think it will be tough to make the points cost more than VGF by too much because the Swan and Dolphin and Swan Reserve will be around for most of that next 50 year contract which will provide a ceiling on prices, and having RIV nearby also negates some of the pressure. While I vastly prefer to walk, and prefer the dining options of the Boardwalk/BC area, having skyliner access is worth something, and of course you can in theory skyline over to the boardwalk.
4. As the Hard Refurbs have shown, there is only so much lipstick you can put on an older building. It is hard for me to imagine Disney demolishing Boardwalk. They could do it, but the impact would be for several years, and I am not sure if the accountants would be eager to go that route when I suspect whatever the price is, people will pay to own BW and BC.
5. DVC has been pretty consistent with points charts having a basis in square footage of unit. BC and BW are a notable exception (as is the CCV points chart).
6. We are also assuming that the constant expansion of DVC will be able to continue unabated between now and 2042 at WDW. I am skeptical of that. There's a reason they keep coming back to (and then backing away from) off-site properties.