How Long do you think it will take for The Grand Floridian Villas to sell out?

[Purrrrfecta]

I'm just sitting here wondering how long it will take for the GFVs to sell out. I would like to have the opportunity to stay in them before I think about buying points at $150 per point.
Since there are so few villas how long do you think it will be before they sellout? Do you think other members will have a chance to stay in them before they are sold out?

 

[AmyB2006]

I'm just sitting here wondering how long it will take for the GFVs to sell out. I would like to have the opportunity to stay in them before I think about buying points at $150 per point.
Since there are so few villas how long do you think it will be before they sellout? Do you think other members will have a chance to stay in them before they are sold out?

It's gonna be a while before they sell out. You're talking about selling out of points??

So yes, I think other members will have a chance to stay in them. Probably a better chance sooner than later. As there are more owners there, it will become more difficult, I think at least.

 

[SpaceMountain77]

Approximately 2.5 million points have been declared by DVC for VGF. Given the size and sales duration of VGC, I suspect it will take approximately 2 years for the resort to sell out. Although there will be plenty of time to buy in, the price per point will likely climb over that time.

 

[DizGirl20]

Approximately 2.5 million points have been declared by DVC for VGF. Given the size and sales duration of VGC, I suspect it will take approximately 2 years for the resort to sell out. Although there will be plenty of time to buy in, the price per point will likely climb over that time.

Just curious, how many points were allocated to BLT? Or any other resort for that matter (if you happen to know)...

 

[wdrl]

Just curious, how many points were allocated to BLT? Or any other resort for that matter (if you happen to know)...

If you look at this article on DVCNews.com, you'll see charts that show the total number of points for all DVC resorts except Villas at Grand Californian and Aulani. The point totals were derived from information filed by Disney Vacation Development with the respective County comptrollers and clerks.

Aulani has either 11,518,422 points or 11,472,073 points. Disney is converting one Grand Villa to a cafe, which should remove 46,343 points from the total points for the resort. However, I have not seen confirmation that Aulani's master declaration has been modified to reflect this change.

 

[wiigirl]

I think it might take a while...

 

[nalajms]

If BLT sold out in 4-5 years at 5.7m points and through a recession, I would think VGF with 2.5m points would sell out within 18months assuming the economy is rebounding for good....

Plus, wouldn't they want to sell out before presales begin for Poly?

 

[lodge]

Oh kill me now... I have Poly to think about next.

 

[DenLo]

I'm estimating three years as I expect they will be raising the price for VGF to be equal to BLT within 6 months. Therefore people will start buying AKV again as a lower price alternative to VGF and that will slow down the sales. Also I expect that the add ons by current DVC members will be smaller than predicted. I think the rumors that there wlll a Poly DVC will keep some members from adding on at VGF. And other current members will buy a lower number of points than they were estimating.

I think people will realize that VGF has nothing to offer as a DVC resort except a room. No pool for DVC members, no community hall. Everything is at the main resort. So you'll pay a higher annual dues than some of the other DVC resorts and get less. After looking at the condo drawings in the declaration, it doesn't even look like the room sizes will be special except for the GVs.

 

[WilsonFlyer]

22-26 months, if we're taking lines.

 

[Carl'n'Ellie'sDad]

If you look at this article on DVCNews.com, you'll see charts that show the total number of points for all DVC resorts except Villas at Grand Californian and Aulani. The point totals were derived from information filed by Disney Vacation Development with the respective County comptrollers and clerks.

Aulani has either 11,518,422 points or 11,472,073 points. Disney is converting one Grand Villa to a cafe, which should remove 46,343 points from the total points for the resort. However, I have not seen confirmation that Aulani's master declaration has been modified to reflect this change.

Off topic, but this implies that DVD will sell VGF for 2.5M * $160 ( after price increases ) or $400 million. Similarly, Aulani will sell for at least $1,200M, and BLT sold for about 5.75M * $110, or about $630M.

The amazing one to me is that SSRs 14 million points, at a conservative average price of $80, sold for over $1.1 billion! With this amount of revenue coming in, the building will certainly continue -- I'm guessing 5M Villas at the Polynesian points for $200 each...

 

[BestDadEver]

I wouldn't be worried about point availability I would be worried about what the price would be after a year . Most likely be much higher from what I have seen they increase the points very fast

 

[tjkraz]

I wouldn't be worried about point availability I would be worried about what the price would be after a year . Most likely be much higher from what I have seen they increase the points very fast

Agree with that.

DVC is eyeing approximately a 2 year sales window. If sales trend ahead of projections, expect the price increases to accelerate.

 

[SpaceMountain77]

I wouldn't be worried about point availability I would be worried about what the price would be after a year . Most likely be much higher from what I have seen they increase the points very fast

I agree with this post as well. It is not a matter of how quickly points sell, but how quickly the price climbs. I would anticipate at least one price increase between the non-member $150 opening presale and resort opening on October 23, 2013.

 

[DaveInCali]

Where can I find info on how long sold out properties took to sell?

 

[tjkraz]

Where can I find info on how long sold out properties took to sell?

There's no master list...and it's a very subjective measure because DVC doesn't come right out and say "OK, we're sold out now!" Usually it's a matter of DVC changing their focus to another property and removing sales incentives.

By the textbook definition, no property is ever truly sold out because DVC can recapture points virtually at will. The first resort built was Old Key West and they'll still sell you OKW points today.

The shortest sell-out periods have probably been Beach Club (around 13 months) and Grand Californian (approx 18 months.)

Saratoga Springs took something like 8 years. Animal Kingdom Villas is still selling after 6+ years.

As myself and other posters have mentioned here regarding GF, it's more a question of how prices will rise rather than how quickly it will sell out. DVC is eyeing a 2 year sales window for VGF. And they'll use price increases to try and maintain that window.

After 6 months, you would expect about 25% of the points to be sold. If DVC has actually sold 30-35% of points in 6 mos, price increases will come much quicker (or incentives will be scaled-back) to help increase profit margins.

$145 is an impressive starting point. I don't recall anyone predicting it would be that low. But if sales are brisk, it's not inconceivable that we could be looking at prices upward of $160 before the end of the year.

The good news is DVC typically announces price increases a few weeks ahead of time so we have some idea of what's coming. We already know it will be up to $150 on June 19th.

 

[RweTHEREyet]

I'm estimating three years as I expect they will be raising the price for VGF to be equal to BLT within 6 months. Therefore people will start buying AKV again as a lower price alternative to VGF and that will slow down the sales. Also I expect that the add ons by current DVC members will be smaller than predicted. I think the rumors that there wlll a Poly DVC will keep some members from adding on at VGF. And other current members will buy a lower number of points than they were estimating.

I think people will realize that VGF has nothing to offer as a DVC resort except a room. No pool for DVC members, no community hall. Everything is at the main resort. So you'll pay a higher annual dues than some of the other DVC resorts and get less. After looking at the condo drawings in the declaration, it doesn't even look like the room sizes will be special except for the GVs.

No pool dedicted to DVC members, but there is a lovely pool with a special water feature for the little ones right beside the building.

Parking will be right outside the DVC building, no hike from parking lot to your villa. Senses Spa with a basketball court and BBQ grills right outside the front of the building. Studios will sleep 5 with two showers, which is huge for families with 3 little ones. And they are gorgeous.

Every DVC resort has advantages and disadvantages.

 

[rlovew]

According to our guide they are processing over 300 contracts at GFV a day. The are still in the midst of a backlog- we have been told they can't get our contract prepared until either Friday or Monday.

Even if the average amount of points was 50(which I suspect is low because that would only be 1-2 nights in a studio per year) that would be 15,000 points per day and they haven't started nonmember sales.

Rebecca

 

[nyck]

According to our guide they are processing over 300 contracts at GFV a day. The are still in the midst of a backlog- we have been told they can't get our contract prepared until either Friday or Monday.

Even if the average amount of points was 50(which I suspect is low because that would only be 1-2 nights in a studio per year) that would be 15,000 points per day and they haven't started nonmember sales.

Rebecca

True. I bought mine May 24 and was told they are so behind on the paperwork and for me not to expect it for 2-3 weeks

 

[DenLo]

We did the tour at VGF on Thursday, May 30, and the rooms are beautiful. But boy were we rushed through the tour. There was always someone else waiting to see it. Even though we were not touring with a group. I expect the frantic sales that are going on now will lessen in 4 - 6 months especially with price increases. Our guide for the tour confirmed that management is stating there will never be lower price for VGF even with the offers on cruise ships. They won't even give a better discount to CM's working for DVC.

The guaranteed week option was very popular but from what we were hearing it was mainly for December weeks. The two GV's allocated to guaranteed weeks 51 and 52 sold very quickly (Christmas and New Years). We were told one woman flew in from the UK to sign a contract for a GW for her family since they could not purchase by phone. Now that is a serious commitment.

I expect that the majority of the guaranteed weeks will never sell and those units will end up being sold strictly as points.