How do crowd levels get calculated by Touring Plans?

[goodeats]

We are travelling to the World between Aug 15- Aug 23. I picked my park days based on historical levels, EMHs (avoiding) or going to the park the day after they had EMH. Kenny the Pirate pretty much agrees with my days (we have some yellows, but are mostly green), but Touring Plan has Aug 21st at the MK being a crowd level 8. Besides Early Morning Magic (which I thought was limited to 200 people or so) why would that be?

I can't switch anything around at this point because we have BBB/CRT/7DMT that day and we have other hard to get FPs the other days (FOP, SDD, FEA) so I guess I'm just tilting at wind mills anyway. Kenny the Pirate also has Tuesday the 21st as Yellow. Any idea why a Tuesday/Wednesday would have higher crowd levels compared to Saturday/Sunday? And why would Kenny the Pirate say HS is the best park for a particular day while TP says it's the worst?

 

[mesaboy2]

We are travelling to the World between Aug 15- Aug 23. I picked my park days based on historical levels, EMHs (avoiding) or going to the park the day after they had EMH. Kenny the Pirate pretty much agrees with my days (we have some yellows, but are mostly green), but Touring Plan has Aug 21st at the MK being a crowd level 8. Besides Early Morning Magic (which I thought was limited to 200 people or so) why would that be?

I can't switch anything around at this point because we have BBB/CRT/7DMT that day and we have other hard to get FPs the other days (FOP, SDD, FEA) so I guess I'm just tilting at wind mills anyway. Kenny the Pirate also has Tuesday the 21st as Yellow. Any idea why a Tuesday/Wednesday would have higher crowd levels compared to Saturday/Sunday? And why would Kenny the Pirate say HS is the best park for a particular day while TP says it's the worst?

Because accurately predicting the future is hard. WDW Planning 101: don’t put too much stock in crowd calendars. Or, at the very least, don’t compare them against each other.

Since your plans are already pretty well set, go with them and don’t look back.

 

[holden]

I don’t find crowd calendars to be very helpful. Just go with your plan and have fun. Expect level 8 crowds. If it feels less crowded to you, awesome! You’ll enjoy it that much more.

Besides, it’s not the crowds you need to be concerned with...it’s the heat.

 

[Randomsoulshine]

I know they use a lot of data and so forth. I have been watching their June predictions and many have been off by 2-3 points and crowd levels were higher. So although I will always look at what crowd levels say when planning dates I won't ever count it as absolute. Could always be higher or lower and with a great plan in place an 8 for MK can be very manageable.

 

[Simba07]

They are based on wait times on key popular rides from about 10am to some time in the late afternoon. They are not related to actual number of people or feel. I am there the same days as you and are hoping they are wrong about the 21st. I think the fact that the MNSSHP starts soon there after is influencing the predicted CLs that week.

 

[goodeats]

Yes, there is a MNSSHP during our week (which we're skipping because thinking about Halloween in August heat is crazy!) which may affect crowds on different days.

Ok, I will go with the flow. Most likely we'll be back at our resort mid-day anyway.

 

[Sarcazm]

I have a TP membership and looked up that Tuesday from last year (which was Aug 22). It looks like a few rides were "offline" which can affect standby lines. This probably increased the "crowd level" even though the crowd level would be the same.

 

[StageTek]

Besides Early Morning Magic (which I thought was limited to 200 people or so)

I thought Early Morning Magic was only limited to guests staying on property. Can anyone confirm?

 

[mesaboy2]

I thought Early Morning Magic was only limited to guests staying on property. Can anyone confirm?

EMH is limited to guests on property, not EMM. They are different events.

 

[StageTek]

So am I understanding that EMM limited to 200 guests?

 

[GADisneyDad14]

So am I understanding that EMM limited to 200 guests?

That would be correct, approximately.

 

[maryj11]

I know Touring Plans changed both our MK days to a 9! Kenny the Pirate has one of those as green. I'm not changing anything because of it though. We are going to go at rope drop then do FP's and go for a break at the resort then go back in the evening. We have managed a 10 with no problems, so I guess we can do a 9. The key is to work that FP system by refreshing. The only problem we had on that 10 day was finding a place to watch the fireworks. It was a nightmare! From now on we book the dessert party.

 

[Randomsoulshine]

I know Touring Plans changed both our MK days to a 9! Kenny the Pirate has one of those as green. I'm not changing anything because of it though. We are going to go at rope drop then do FP's and go for a break at the resort then go back in the evening. We have managed a 10 with no problems, so I guess we can do a 9. The key is to work that FP system by refreshing. The only problem we had on that 10 day was finding a place to watch the fireworks. It was a nightmare! From now on we book the dessert party.

Yes! If they do rope drop as in get there an hour before park opens and rode for a couple of hours and then have fast passes they can take a break in the mid day crowds and heat and have that fourth fast pass scheduled for right after their break. We chose to ride during the fireworks and it was lovely walking around a nearly empty Fantasyland and seeing the fireworks above. If one is smart crowd levels won't stop the magic.

 

[maryj11]

Yes! If they do rope drop as in get there an hour before park opens and rode for a couple of hours and then have fast passes they can take a break in the mid day crowds and heat and have that fourth fast pass scheduled for right after their break. We chose to ride during the fireworks and it was lovely walking around a nearly empty Fantasyland and seeing the fireworks above. If one is smart crowd levels won't stop the magic.

We plan on taking advantage of the lower crowds during the fireworks on one of our MK days. It is a great time to ride! We have done it before and we loved riding around the outside of Splash while the fireworks were going off.

 

[twolittletinkerbells]

Crowd Calendars USED to be pretty useful YEARS ago. Now, I find they are pretty good at predicting feel and walking crowds, but rides not as much. Disney adjust their staff to crowd predictions also so lower crowd doesnt always equate lower wait times.

 

[Spencer Wright]

I am going about that time and have several years before. I personally would just scrap the crowd calender's all together and stick with your plans. Yes, it is busy, but Disney handles the crowds extremely well, in June, July, and August.

One of the reasons (in my opinion), over the past year we have seen complaints about crowds during the holidays and spring break, is that Disney was not able to handle crowds well. This includes one front desk person at resort, closing one or two tracks on an attraction, ect.

I do not put much stock in crowd calender's that time of year.

 

[Cynergy]

One thing I have discovered over the years is that regardless of crowd size, having a plan will put you ahead of the majority of other guests. I wouldn't sweat it and just stick to your plans.

 

[HookPan]

We plan to be there that day too and was also questioning their rating. It is what it is, I can't change my days either. I plan on doing rope drop and a few ride. Getting more in at night. I also like to use ADR and FP availability as an indicator. As far as FP it doesn't seem so bad right now. We will see what happens when we hit the 30 day mark.