Help with my Disney Math!

[taximomfor4]

ok, I am making myself crazy trying to plan SOMETHING for a vacation --

I am eligible for AP discount. Want to go to WDW with the family this August. We are 2 adults, 1 junior, and 3 kids. If we get AP discounted room, we need 2 rooms.

If I were going to try for a moderate resort or WL/AKL standard rooms, what would probably be the best deal? AP discount, or Free Dining. (we normally would spend about $90/day on food/beverages without DDP).

HELP! I am all math-ed out now!

Beth

p.s. I KNOW Free Dining might not happen, and I know AP discounts might not happen, and at this point the amount of the AP discounts can only be guessed...just wondering based on educated guesses

 

[robinb]

Your dining would cost $147 per day, or approximately $73 per room. Your AP discount would have to be at least $65 to break even after taxes.

For instance:
A $200 room with free dining would cost $224 with taxes.
A $135 room (AP discount) with taxes would be $151, plus the $73 in dining would be a total of $224.

ETA: I am shocked that you can feed your family of 6 for only $90 per day at WDW! That's amazing.

 

[taximomfor4]

Your dining would cost $147 per day, or approximately $73 per room. Your AP discount would have to be at least $65 to break even after taxes.

For instance:
A $200 room with free dining would cost $224 with taxes.
A $135 room (AP discount) with taxes would be $151, plus the $73 in dining would be a total of $224.

ETA: I am shocked that you can feed your family of 6 for only $90 per day at WDW! That's amazing.

Especially in August, nobody gets hungry much. There were days that we did an 8:30am CP breakfast, then nobody was hungry till after 5pm!! (So we do that on our final day...dont' need to stop and eat till we're through North Carolina, lol). Mostly, though, we bring cereal bars, fruit, etc for breakfast on the go, and bring water bottles. (oh, and dde helps too, lol).

And 3 CS meals goes really far, with a popcorn snack later.

SO at the values and moderates, the free dining would still probably be better. Oh, but wait.....

I was getting lost in the math, because I would save money ordering tickets from a ticket broker, too, which factors in , also. Like for 5 parkhoppers (7-day: 2 adult, 3 child, and I have AP already) is $1128. To add 6 1-day base tickets then upgrade 5 of them upon arrival to 7-day hoppers......aaaahhhhhhhh....that is when my brain fries out.

Beth

 

[beth_cam]

Well if your budget for dining without the dining plan would be $90 a day then you probably need to compare that for you savings.

according to mousesavers the current ap savings are as follows

Travel dates: 2/15/07-3/30/07. Discounts are $40 off per night at Value resorts, $61 off per night at Moderate resorts and $131 off per night at Deluxe and DVC resorts. Book by 3/30/07. Use code FCQ.

Travel dates: 1/1/07-2/14/07. Discounts are $23 off per night at Value resorts, $46 off per night at Moderate resorts and $80 off per night at Deluxe and DVC resorts. Book by 2/14/07. Use code FCC.

I'd be sure (check out allearsnet.com for prices) that you really are going to be able to stay at $90 per day. Even if you have been able to in the past it might have changed. We only eat 2 meals a day when there and only have 2 kids (ddp costs us 100 a day) and not doing the dining plan doesnt save us much by the time I pay for 2-3 character meals and a steak dinner.

 

[beth_cam]

Also some people experienced problems with upgrading some tickets but not all during free dining. I dont have time to find links but you might want to look that up. I think basically it was if you go to the right desk you were fine but anywhere else made you upgrade the entire party.



mod
2 rooms ap - 46X2 = 92/night savings * 7 nights = 644 savings
Verses
Free dining 90 (dining budget) per night * 7nights = 630 savings - cost of extra tickets

I screwed up my previous post. gotta edit it out of time now.

 

[robinb]

Oh shoot! I forgot about the 1-day passes. And I've done the DDP twice with APs. We love to eat at TS restaurants, so it makes it worthwhile for us.

An adult 7-day PH is $264. A child's PH is $232. We got the "advance" price when we upgrade out 1-days from our August trip in December. 2 Adults and 3 children would be $1224, so you're saving $96 on passes. So ... I would say that you are saving another $48 on the AP rate v/s rack rate and the DDP.

BTW, it just occurred to me that you cannot purchase the DDP with an AP discounted room.

It seems to me that you are one of the families where the DDP just doesn't make sense.

ETA: I need to use a spreadsheet! You would also have to pay $71 for the 1-day ticket that you would not use (but could upgrade later) if you get the DDP.

 

[taximomfor4]

Well if your budget for dining without the dining plan would be $90 a day then you probably need to compare that for you savings.

according to mousesavers the current ap savings are as follows


These savings are typical of what has been being offered recently but don't guarentee the trend will continue. So from value season to peak the discount for a mod ranged from 61-80 per night per room. So even at 61 per room savings X 2 rooms total is 120 per night compared to your dining budget of 90 saves you 30 per night. However I have seen the Ap rate be 40 off mods. What you will have to do is wait until the discounts are offered. you can get your ap ressie without actually having an ap, you just have to have it when you check in. There is no guarentee if either of these will be offered. But ap should atleast be close to your 90 budget. Especially when adding in you dde savings.


I'd be sure (check out allearsnet.com for prices) that you really are going to be able to stay at $90 per day. Even if you have been able to in the past it might have changed. We only eat 2 meals a day when there and only have 2 kids (ddp costs us 100 a day) and not doing the dining plan doesnt save us much by the time I pay for 2-3 character meals and a steak dinner.

So right now the Moderate AP discounts are $61 and $46. Especially if the $46 is about where August's AP discount for a moderate is, that would be about $92/night savings...for 6 nights, that would be about equal to our food estimate...so a wash. In that case, I'd take the free dining just in case we DID eat extra a few times! Of course, the tickets would cost about $90 more (no ticket broker discount), too. That is only about $12/night extra expense. Basically, that would be like paying $12 extra per night and elimating worry about food budget.

When those AP rates come out, I'll be all over my calculator, lol.

Beth

 

[taximomfor4]

ok: did I make any obvious omissions?

With AP discount (say $50/night/room) for 7 days, 7 nights
________________________________

$1128.75 (2a, 3c 7-day hoppers from broker)
$2284 (2 standard rooms at Mod resort)
- $700 (estimated AP discount x 2 rms)
=$2712
+770 (7 days of food x $110/day)
=$3482



With Free DDP (7 nights/7 days at standard mod room)
_________________________________________

$1869.56 (room #1, 1a 2c with 7-day hoppers)
$1903.64 (room #2 2a 1c with 7day hoppers)
=$3773
-$71
=$3702


Hmmm....if I estimated somewhat accurately, about $220/7 days, or about $31/day to eat way more food.

If the AP discount is better than $50/night, we're probably much better off with AP discount. If it is less than $50/night, we're probably close to even either way but the free dining would be better. I upped the food budget JUST IN CASE, lol. Yikes, I guess I should be fair, though, and say that if I do the free ddp I will end up with one 1-day ticket ($71 value) to apply toward a future ticket. So I subtracted that outta the cost of the free dining one.

OK, I have homework I am supposed to be doing today, NOT THIS!!

So, Disney Math Specialists, did I mess up anything?

 

[beth_cam]

that's kind of how I looked at ddp when we decided to do it. We figured we would probably end up spending an extra 150. BUT we could eat what we wanted, I wouldn't ALWAYS be saying "you have to share that drink with your brother" "one popsicle is enough for the two of you" when really they often share but it can be a battle and this is vacation. I wouldnt be constantly figuring how to get the most food for the least money. and we could do a character meal every day if we wanted. (no ap consideration for us though as I would have had to purchase for the trip)

 

[taximomfor4]

that's kind of how I looked at ddp when we decided to do it. We figured we would probably end up spending an extra 150. BUT we could eat what we wanted, I wouldn't ALWAYS be saying "you have to share that drink with your brother" "one popsicle is enough for the two of you" when really they often share but it can be a battle and this is vacation. I wouldnt be constantly figuring how to get the most food for the least money. and we could do a character meal every day if we wanted. (no ap consideration for us though as I would have had to purchase for the trip)

We haven't ever had arguments about sharing at WDW -- in regular restaurants, the kids sometimes want their own stuff, but don't get dessert or snacks. At WDW, they get snacks so don't care about the meals so much.

We tend to only do one or 2 character meals, but I upped the estimated food budget anyway because on the days we do the character meals, that meal alone is like $90. Throw in a few snacks here and there, and we probably will be able to average about $110/day.

Beth

 

[robinb]

OK ... I did some math for you.

Assumptions:
(1) Value Season
(2) AP rates, $29 off Value, $46 off Moderate (these were very close to the rates last year)
(3) 2 Rooms
(4) 7 nights
(5) $110 per day food, non-DDP

Moderate Resort:
Free DDP
Room = (2 * $145)*1.12 = $325.00
Passes = $71 (one-day) + $1224 (2 A, 3C) = $1295 total or $185 per day
Total = $510 per day
Total 7 Nights: $3570

AP Discount
Room = (2 * ($145-46))*1.12 = $222
Passes = $1128 or $161 per day
Food = $110
Total = $493
Total 7 Nights: $3451

$119 Less With AP Discount.

Value Resort:
Free DDP
Room = (2 * $82)*1.12 = $184
Passes = $71 (one-day) + $1224 (2 A, 3C) = $1295 total or $188 per day
Total = $372 per day
Total 7 Nights: $2604

AP Discount
Room = (2 * ($82-23))*1.12 = $132
Passes = $1128 or $161 per day
Food = $110
Total = $403
Total 7 Nights: $2821

$217 Less With Free Dining.

 

[beth_cam]

We haven't ever had arguments about sharing at WDW -- in regular restaurants, the kids sometimes want their own stuff, but don't get dessert or snacks. At WDW, they get snacks so don't care about the meals so much.

We tend to only do one or 2 character meals, but I upped the estimated food budget anyway because on the days we do the character meals, that meal alone is like $90. Throw in a few snacks here and there, and we probably will be able to average about $110/day.

Beth

We never had before and honestly they didnt argue about what they had to share at Disney - to excited about being able to drink sprite every day to worry about having to share I guess. But especially the second trip we went they had started arguing a lot at home about sharing. And after our first trip where they were tired or cranky at times I thought it was great they were always going to get their own drink atleast. Sharing the meal has never been an issue that is just standard policy...their plate goes to me and I split it. We have a few times let them each order a meal when out at home but they still end up sharing what they have and leaving half of it. It's just nice to know that they can have their own some. My mom always insists on ordering each of them their own then seems dismayed at how much they leave for how much it costs. There is a family joke about my sons reaction when I wasn't around and they gave him a can of soda that he got to have all to himself....I bet that's the night he wet the bed.

 

[robinb]

Now that I look at my numbers ... Free Dining would only cost you less than $20 a day over the AP rate and your regular food budget. I would take the free dining for the ease of use alone. You can double-up on a couple of the table service dinners and do a Dinner Show or CRT .