Glut of Inventory Developing?

[disneylandtour]

In early 2023 when I was looking to buy, there were around 2,000 contracts listed in the resale listings. Right now there are about 1,350. I wouldn't call this a glut now.

In 2022 and 2023, there were some pretty amazing deals, as people were exiting after the pandemic (partial banking) rules. I think some people lost a lot of points back then.

 

[disneylandtour]

I mean, it could be anyone. 'Tis the season when the timeshares "for sale" go up. We've got another month or so before we flip from a buyers' market to a sellers' one, and this cyclic behavior happens ever year.

Then, layer macroeconomic forces on top of that. Inflation is unexpectedly sticky, and the chatter is not only the Fed pausing rate cuts, but whispers of rate increases. The VIX has been higher YoY, the stock market is "frothy", options volumes are going up---all signs that the market is getting nervous.

It's rarely any One Reason, even though The One Reason is a compelling story line.

Completely agree with this. Historically, the market flips right around spring break. If I had to put it down to a couple of things, it's this: post christmas, people are cash shy and aren't thinking about vacations. Spring break, christmas is in the rear-view (maybe a tax refund arrives) and vacations are on their minds.

 

[808blessing]

I wonder who could be selling…. …..

I told ya!

 

[808blessing]

The ticket prices are also through the roof. Sadly.

 

[Jwaire]

The ticket prices are also through the roof. Sadly.

And now they're rumored to be switching to demand-based-pricing like DCL and DLP for park tickets. How high can a Magic Kingdom Christmas week ticket go? We shall see.

 

[disneylandtour]

And now they're rumored to be switching to demand-based-pricing like DCL and DLP for park tickets. How high can a Magic Kingdom Christmas week ticket go? We shall see.

I've had an AP for decades (minus the year or so of the pandemic). Trust me - whenever ticket prices are high with surge pricing, you probably don't want to be there anyway. I usually go the second week of December--around Dec 10--and then leave by the third week. It's very chill and pleasant second week of December--but you couldn't pay me to be in the Magic Kingdom the week of Christmas as it would packed with crowds and miserable.

 

[Jwaire]

I've had an AP for decades (minus the year or so of the pandemic). Trust me - whenever ticket prices are high with surge pricing, you probably don't want to be there anyway. I usually go the second week of December--around Dec 10--and then leave by the third week. It's very chill and pleasant second week of December--but you couldn't pay me to be in the Magic Kingdom the week of Christmas as it would packed with crowds and miserable.

Yeah, I wasn't advocating for it. However, my point was we might see $400-500+ per day 1-day pricing for Magic Kingdom that week once they switch to demand-based pricing. It's already $200.

 

[disneylandtour]

Yeah, I wasn't advocating for it. However, my point was we might see $400-500+ per day 1-day pricing for Magic Kingdom that week once they switch to demand-based pricing. It's already $200.

It's hard for me to imagine anyone who goes regularly (and lives out of the area) really wanting to go that week--or easter--or July 4th (except to see the fireworks) or Jersey Week or the weekend after Thanksgiving. So this whole flex pricing seems to be to an up-charge people who don't understand the WDW calendar (which kinda sucks) but will have zero impact on my life. If I understand the proposal correctly, it just means that middle-class people will likely buy tickets far in advance now--it'll only be those who buy tickets in December for the week after Christmas who will see most of the up-charge, as prices go up slowly as supply runs out. People who plan will still be fine.

 

[Sprinkles&Sprints]

It's hard for me to imagine anyone who goes regularly (and lives out of the area) really wanting to go that week--or easter--or July 4th (except to see the fireworks) or Jersey Week or the weekend after Thanksgiving. So this whole flex pricing seems to be to an up-charge people who don't understand the WDW calendar (which kinda sucks) but will have zero impact on my life. If I understand the proposal correctly, it just means that middle-class people will likely buy tickets far in advance now--it'll only be those who buy tickets in December for the week after Christmas who will see most of the up-charge, as prices go up slowly as supply runs out. People who plan will still be fine.

We go that week because we love going during the holidays but can only travel during school breaks. Many DVC families fall into this category - we’ve met several during our stays. But we also have Incredipass - absolutely no way we would pay the per day ticket price for that week.

 

[Bmramaut]

I’m in the thinking that prices are going down and inventory is going up. I think a lot of people are rethinking Disney with a new administration, planes crashing, and overall affordability.
I’m also wondering if ticket prices will correct or not.

 

[SL6827]

The prices will rise when temps are more comfortable and decrease when it is horribly hot. Disney has taken note of the guest distain of the heat over the past few years now.

 

[The Jackal]

The ticket prices are also through the roof. Sadly.

Get ready to pay more. Disney is doing dynamic pricing soon for both Disneyland and Disney World. The CEO needs bigger bonuses even though the stock is worth a lot less than pre pandemic. While virtually a lot of other stocks are up a bunch. The board needs to pick a new CEO that is focused on the business not themselves. Netflix is up about 200%. Disney is down almost 30%.