GF Villas

[mjc2003]

While I don't see us adding on, my wife and I were talking about GF DVC and wondering aloud what the pricing is going to be. I think with only 147 units that they will sell out rather quickly, and for awhile it will be quite difficult to get a room anywhere near the 7 month window. We will probably just use the points we have at BCV and try to get lucky at some point at the 7 month window.

I was curious what others thought about the following: What will the starting price be? Will there be an initial offer at a discount, or will DVD forego that this time b/c of the unique nature of GF (desirability)? Another consideration is, if they price it as high as many think (lets say $175 per point, just for kicks), will people who buy at that price even want to use their points elsewhere? I wouldn't. This got us thinking, is it possible that they would exclude anybody from using points at GF DVC?

If you paid $175 for points at GFV, would you be ok using them elsewhere, or would you always want to use them at GFV?

 

[drusba]

Since it is still a long time before they will even begin sales, it is hard to predict price per point but I am guessing $175 is way too low considering that BLT which is now $150 was only $112 before incentives only two years ago. Better guess would be $200 or more if sales were to begin late 2013. The second factor is number of points needed per room per night because, like at BLT, an increase over other resorts in that figure is just another way of increasing the sales price but not doing it in hard dollars.

From drawings it appears a lot of the rooms will have what they will be able to call an MK view. BLT point cost per room category for MK view was about a 33% increase over any other great views at other resorts -- such as boardwalk view at BWV and savanna view at AKV. Other BLT room categories represented about a 15% to 20% increase. One should assume that GF's percentage increase over BLT will likely be at least those percentages. For example, a GF MK view studio for a week in Magic Season will likely cost at least 240 points.

One issue is whether the annual dues will be lower than other resorts like BLT is now and the answer is likely yes if they have such a higher point per night structure since far more points per unit will be sold than other resorts and that means dues will be spread among more points per unit making them lower per point like BLT even though overall costs per unit may not be lower.

New owners that buy there will mainly be those who buy because it is the big boy that will be on sale at the time. I don't think members there will be more "stay at home" oriented than members at the other near the park resorts (BWV, BCV, BLT, and even VWL) as the years progress but will definitely be so in the early years. As years progress, they will view places like BCV, VWL and BWV, which still give them the near-park experience, as desired bargains for their points and thus you will see demand at the 7 month window increase for those.

As to offering incentives, DVD undoubtedly will. Those discounts off the price per point for new units are simply marketing tools to convince people to buy thinking they are getting a discount and that the lower price per point could disappear at any moment. In reality all DVD is actually doing is selling the points at the price it wants to sell them in the first place; in creating discounts, DVD simply takes that price, increases it and then offers the discount to achieve the price it wanted the buyer to pay in the first place.

 

[kenny]

From drawings it appears a lot of the rooms will have what they will be able to call an MK view.

Isn't the GF resort rooms blocking the view of the MK? When I looked at where they were placing the villa's it looked to be to the right of the resort itself. Thought that would block the MK views but maybe I am looking at it wrong.

 

[drusba]

^It looks like it will have two more floors than the other GF buildings and thus higher floors should be able to look over the other buildings. Moreover, there will be enough distance between GFV and the hotel buildings that even a couple more floors down from top two will be able to see something from MK, which if they follow BLT, which has rooms as low as third floor as MK view, is enough for DVD to charge you the outrageous number of points for an MK view.

 

[mjc2003]

Since it is still a long time before they will even begin sales, it is hard to predict price per point but I am guessing $175 is way too low considering that BLT which is now $150 was only $112 before incentives only two years ago. Better guess would be $200 or more if sales were to begin late 2013. The second factor is number of points needed per room per night because, like at BLT, an increase over other resorts in that figure is just another way of increasing the sales price but not doing it in hard dollars.

I thought somebody earlier had suggested a mid-2012 start for selling, about a year prior to the suggested opening of mid/late 2013. I don't think they will wait until 2013 to be selling, but what do I know.

Based on the BLT point structure, any increase would mean nearly 400 points for a 1 BR for a week (for MK views, which I agree will be most of the rooms). That means it's going to be $80,000 to get enough points to stay a week in a 1BR, plus MF's. I'm not saying you are wrong with your projection, but I do wonder who would pay that? Where's the value? Even with low MF's of $4pp, that's another $32,000 in MF's over the first 20 years. $112,000 for 20 weeks? That's $5600 for a week for a 1BR, about 40% more than what a regular GF room would cost you with the same sleeping capacity. If you get into 2BR's, the pricing would be appreciably more than getting a regular suite at GF.

Again, I'm not saying you are wrong. I just wonder if there is a breaking point where it simply doesn't make sense? I guess with only 147 units, they'll find enough people who don't care about crunching numbers....but in this economy, I'm not so sure.

 

[Desnik]

I remember before the point charts became available for BLT everyone here was speculating how many points it would be for such and such room/date/view. They were all higher than what it actually turned out to be. Same thing with the price per point, most people here guessed higher than what it turned out to be.

I do plan on adding on here because I want that 11 month window to stay there in the summer. But what I think everyone is forgetting is yes the GF is the flagship resort, and it's on the monorail, but it is NOT in walking distance to any parks. This is where I think BLT has the upper hand. It's on the monorail but you can walk to the MK & the views & TOW lounge do give it an edge over GFV. I'm sure DVC knows this. Now I do think points will be priced slightly higher than BLT but they will offer an incentive. As for dues, I also think they will be similar to BLT.

 

[GrnMtnMan]

But what I think everyone is forgetting is yes the GF is the flagship resort, and it's on the monorail, but it is NOT in walking distance to any parks. This is where I think BLT has the upper hand. It's on the monorail but you can walk to the MK & the views & TOW lounge do give it an edge over GFV. I'm sure DVC knows this.

Bingo! Well said...

My money is sitting at the title company waiting for notarized closing docs to arrive, so I'm a current DVC buyer (resale, at BLT) and I suspect my reasoning represents a typical buyer.

I knew of the semi-confirmed rumors of this DVC resort when I was buying...but GF Villas had no appeal for me given the locational advantages of BLT mentioned above. I've been on that monorail when nobody got off at the GF, and all those folks had to wait for the next one...and the next one...and the next one. The GF is all good-looks and little substance. And it will be priced a little higher, but people will catch on pretty quickly to its short-comings.

Now if they put a bridge over the canal and complete the walkway from the GF to the MK, that's another story. Might be worth it for DVD to do it just to simulate DVC sales.

 

[drusba]

I thought somebody earlier had suggested a mid-2012 start for selling, about a year prior to the suggested opening of mid/late 2013. I don't think they will wait until 2013 to be selling, but what do I know.

Based on the BLT point structure, any increase would mean nearly 400 points for a 1 BR for a week (for MK views, which I agree will be most of the rooms). That means it's going to be $80,000 to get enough points to stay a week in a 1BR, plus MF's. I'm not saying you are wrong with your projection, but I do wonder who would pay that? Where's the value? Even with low MF's of $4pp, that's another $32,000 in MF's over the first 20 years. $112,000 for 20 weeks? That's $5600 for a week for a 1BR, about 40% more than what a regular GF room would cost you with the same sleeping capacity. If you get into 2BR's, the pricing would be appreciably more than getting a regular suite at GF.

Again, I'm not saying you are wrong. I just wonder if there is a breaking point where it simply doesn't make sense? I guess with only 147 units, they'll find enough people who don't care Personally, I believe about crunching numbers....but in this economy, I'm not so sure.

The announcement at the annual meeting said GFV would likely open late 2014 not 2013. A newspaper reported 2013. I was going by the announcement at the meeting but obviously there is unclarity. Pre-sales began at BLT 10 months before opening and that is the longest pre-sale period DVD has had for any WDW resort and we should not expect pre-sales to begin at GFV much longer than that before opening.

Economy could be better in two to three years. GF has always been considered the premiere resort which has always demanded a higher price for a room than the Contemporary. The GFV will likewise be able to demand a higher price in dollars and points than BLT. A 1BR, if they stick with AKV/BLT concept, will be much larger than the hotel rooms, will have its own w/d and two bathrooms. Your 40% analysis does not apply because of that and also because 40% less than $5800 is $3480 and you cannot even get a standard garden view room for anywhere near that at GF during magic season for a week at the regular rates plus taxes.

I actually believe I am being conservative in price and point predictions if we are looking at a 2014 opening (they could be lower for a 2013 opening) and believe that because it is GF, buyers will flock to buy it even at higher numbers than i am suggesting.

 

[WilsonFlyer]

That's funny because when I claimed the prices and points would be outrageous (outrageously higher than BLT) in a thread a few months ago, virtually everybody said I was crazy.

I'm gonna find that thread.

 

[Desnik]

The email I received from DVC said GFV will be open late 2013, not 2014 and I know the 2014 date was announced at the meeting. I would assume 2014 was incorrect.

I also want to add that we really can't compare GFV to BLT in terms of how DVC is going about announcements and sales. BLT was already built and they were still denying it was DVC. This time they have nothing built, don't expect it to be done until 2013 and already announced it. I wouldn't be surprised if they start selling a year in advance.

 

[Desnik]

To answer your question op, I'm going to throw out a guess and say GFV will be for sale late 2012 at $165-$170 per point with a discount of a small amount off per point. We plan on adding on there & using those points specifically for the GF.

Maybe my guessing so low is wishful thinking since I'm adding on there.

 

[rlovew]

I believe that their will be a lounge in the GF DVC building- the bartender at TOTWL mentioned that to me a few weeks ago when we were there- she was mentioning that she felt many of the staff at TOTWL may try to move there because it is supposedly going to be open to more people and therefore provides a better earning potential.