FP+ "day of" speculation

[magicbob]

I have a reputation as a "doom & gloom" naysayer where FP+ is concerned. That said, I hope this topic will get some civil discussion (even if we disagree).

So, the recent AK "testing" has me thinking that I may have been wrong (I know... hard to believe, right?) in previous predictions concerning availability of FP+ on the "day of."

For a long time, I have maintained that Disney would not "hold back" any FP+ slots for "day of" reservations. As a result, I predicted that "day of" would consist of a few leftover scraps because all of the most popular rides would be pre-booked.

So, it appears that there is at least some "day of" availability. But I don't think that's a result of Disney holding them back.

Here's my theory... Disney said that all guests would eventually have access to FP+. Many of us, myself included, interpreted this to mean that all guests would have the ability to pre-book.

Now it appears that off-site guests will be able to access FP+ on the "day of" but NOT pre-book. Being able to access FP+ on the "day of" even if you cannot pre-book is still technically FP+ access for all guests. However, since FP+ was pitched as "reserve your rides BEFORE you get to the park," I think it's a little disingenuous to play games with semantics.

I think this accounts for the "day of" availability. That's many thousands of off-site guests who I had predicted would be pre-booking their rides and using up all of the FP+ slots. But with off-site guests not eligible for pre-booking, there is apparently "day of" availability without needing to "hold back" any slots for that purpose.

This still leaves several questions unanswered. Among them are:

With as many resorts as Disney has, will on-site guests pre-booking their FP+ take up all of the available slots during busy times? If so, will off-site guests have any "day of" availability?

And do you think that off-site guests will eventually get to pre-book as I originally surmised? If so, how will this impact availability for "day of" FP+? Obviously, it will HAVE to reduce availability. But how much?

To a certain extent, staying on-site has always been part of some people's touring strategy (access to EMH, proximity of monorail/boardwalk resorts, etc.). Will FP+ eventually cause onsite vs. off-site to make a more significant impact on people's touring strategy?

Discuss.

 

[patty57]

My invaluable contribution to the discussion...who the heck knows.

 

[Missyrose]

I have a reputation as a "doom & gloom" naysayer where FP+ is concerned. That said, I hope this topic will get some civil discussion (even if we disagree).

So, the recent AK "testing" has me thinking that I may have been wrong (I know... hard to believe, right?) in previous predictions concerning availability of FP+ on the "day of."

For a long time, I have maintained that Disney would not "hold back" any FP+ slots for "day of" reservations. As a result, I predicted that "day of" would consist of a few leftover scraps because all of the most popular rides would be pre-booked.

So, it appears that there is at least some "day of" availability. But I don't think that's a result of Disney holding them back.

Here's my theory... Disney said that all guests would eventually have access to FP+. Many of us, myself included, interpreted this to mean that all guests would have the ability to pre-book.

Now it appears that off-site guests will be able to access FP+ on the "day of" but NOT pre-book. Being able to access FP+ on the "day of" even if you cannot pre-book is still technically FP+ access for all guests. However, since FP+ was pitched as "reserve your rides BEFORE you get to the park," I think it's a little disingenuous to play games with semantics.

I think this accounts for the "day of" availability. That's many thousands of off-site guests who I had predicted would be pre-booking their rides and using up all of the FP+ slots. But with off-site guests not eligible for pre-booking, there is apparently "day of" availability without needing to "hold back" any slots for that purpose.

This still leaves several questions unanswered. Among them are:

With as many resorts as Disney has, will on-site guests pre-booking their FP+ take up all of the available slots during busy times? If so, will off-site guests have any "day of" availability?

And do you think that off-site guests will eventually get to pre-book as I originally surmised? If so, how will this impact availability for "day of" FP+? Obviously, it will HAVE to reduce availability. But how much?

To a certain extent, staying on-site has always been part of some people's touring strategy (access to EMH, proximity of monorail/boardwalk resorts, etc.). Will FP+ eventually cause onsite vs. off-site to make a more significant impact on people's touring strategy?

Discuss.

Is it bad that when I read your first sentence it left me wondering whether our group shirts should read:
"Doom and Gloomers"
"FP Superusers"
Or
"Immoral rule-breakers"

But to answer your question, it does look like Disney is holding FP+s back until the morning of. Plenty of people have reported being unable to get a FP+ time for a specific ride the day before, but miraculously, on the morning of there was new times available.

 

[magicbob]

Is it bad that when I read your first sentence it left me wondering whether our group shirts should read:
"Doom and Gloomers"
"FP Superusers"
Or
"Immoral rule-breakers"

But to answer your question, it does look like Disney is holding FP+s back until the morning of. Plenty of people have reported being unable to get a FP+ time for a specific ride the day before, but miraculously, on the morning of there was new times available.

Very interesting if they actually ARE holding back a certain percentage. Many people have speculated that this would be the case.

That seems like a PR disaster waiting to happen. If you market a program to reserve your rides up to 60 days early, but hold back some of the availability for release on the morning of, that means you will likely have guests who went to the trouble of getting up early 60 days in advance to make their reservations, but have to settle for their second choice. And then they find out that guests who made NO advance reservations can get that FP+ slot of that they tried to get months ago just by showing up that morning?

 

[Planogirl]

Keep in mind that even if Disney is holding back some for day-of booking that that could change at any time. I'm excited that it looks like booking on the website and MB's will be available for offsite visitors and maybe we're wrong about the prebooking. Maybe some form of that will be available later.

 

[HockeyMomNH]

Obviously it is all speculation at this point, but I think that what is rolling out now is close to what the system will look like when it is fully deployed.

I think that the 60 day fp+ will be for onsite guests only. I think that AP holders will also have some prebooking options. Currently 14 days at a time. I think for other tickets that the system will eventually go back to recognizing only tickets that have been scanned for use in the parks that day. I do think that the app will eventually be open for day of fp+ selections, but only after tickets have been activated in park.

I also think that the number of FP+ selections will vary based on level of resort, similar to what is now happening with free dining, and that the FP+ will be used as a booking incentive just like FD is now. Ultimately, Disney is going to want to discourage people from booking one night stays in the values or FW just to get the perks. There is evidence to support that too. Just look at the changes that have been made to the FD since it was first offered. Requiring multi day tickets instead of just one day, removing the campsites, and tiering the FD options. All of these things are designed to encourage people to book higher category rooms.

 

[michellesydney84]

Are they handling FP+ like dining reservations where you can reserve 60 +10 days in advance? I'm going July 2-11 and couldn't get dining reservations for July 4 even at my 180 day mark. I'm worried that will be the same for FP+ and all the guests that are going to get their Fast Passes before my 60 days open up.

There are pros and cons to this new system like any system. What about if you want to pick a different park the day of? What if there are transportation issues? What if you are feeling sick? There is no wiggle room when you have to plan your park and what times you will be at which rides 60 days out.

 

[Missyrose]

Keep in mind that even if Disney is holding back some for day-of booking that that could change at any time. I'm excited that it looks like booking on the website and MB's will be available for offsite visitors and maybe we're wrong about the prebooking. Maybe some form of that will be available later.

As with almost everything about this new system: Past performance shouldn't be used to gauge future performance. Which is sad.

 

[karenklo]

We were there NYE week and had really no trouble changing things around in the morning at all, even changing to a different park. While in the park I did notice that if FP- times were still available, I could easily change times to any time that FP- had. I will be interesting when FP- is gone to see what that does for FP+ times.

 

[photo_chick]

Are they handling FP+ like dining reservations where you can reserve 60 +10 days in advance? I'm going July 2-11 and couldn't get dining reservations for July 4 even at my 180 day mark. I'm worried that will be the same for FP+ and all the guests that are going to get their Fast Passes before my 60 days open up.

There are pros and cons to this new system like any system. What about if you want to pick a different park the day of? What if there are transportation issues? What if you are feeling sick? There is no wiggle room when you have to plan your park and what times you will be at which rides 60 days out.

This is a little OT but in response to your first paragraph.. some of the July 4th ADRs (most everything in Epcot) just became available the last couple days. They weren't booked at the 180 day mark, just not available right away.

 

[HockeyMomNH]

I sort of hesitate to put this out there too, but if they open up the 60 day window to anyone what would then stop people from buying a ticket, making fp+ reservations for the most desirable times, and then selling them for a big markup? Or offering it as a service? "Buy our tickets and skip the lines" We have seen time and again people looking for ways to take advantage of the system and make money at it too, just look at the DAS. How could they possibly regulate that without ensuring that the ticket purchaser is onsite, or at least at the gate before making FP reservations?

 

[magicbob]

I sort of hesitate to put this out there too, but if they open up the 60 day window to anyone what would then stop people from buying a ticket, making fp+ reservations for the most desirable times, and then selling them for a big markup? Or offering it as a service? "Buy our tickets and skip the lines" We have seen time and again people looking for ways to take advantage of the system and make money at it too, just look at the DAS. How could they possibly regulate that without ensuring that the ticket purchaser is onsite, or at least at the gate before making FP reservations?

I don't think that would be possible. When the tickets are linked to MDE to make the FP+ reservations, I think they would have the ID of the original purchaser associated with the account. Re-selling the tickets (which I think would be legal if they are still unused) would likely void any FP+ reservations attached to the tickets, because they were made with someone else's MDE account.

 

[HockeyMomNH]

I don't think that would be possible. When the tickets are linked to MDE to make the FP+ reservations, I think they would have the ID of the original purchaser associated with the account. Re-selling the tickets (which I think would be legal if they are still unused) would likely void any FP+ reservations attached to the tickets, because they were made with someone else's MDE account.

That's true, but couldn't someone create a "throw away" MDE account and add tickets from UT, or purchased onsite with cash? Seems like a lot of work, but I'm always amazed at what people will sell, and buy.

Maybe I'm wrong, it just seems like opening up FP+ in advance for non resort guests is opening Disney up to other issues.

Also, they are already showing signs of not having enough FP+ reservations available for busy times. Otherwise, why would they be tiering headliners. If they open FP+ to everyone they will have no control over the masses trying to book the busiest days.

 

[quest4dl]

I'm suspecting that fewer FP+ reservations will be available in advance as it gets rolled out to all guests. I don't think recent reports are really helping for planning in the upcoming months as the strategy changes based on FP- availability, KTTW card availability, and FP+ for off-site guests. Though the MK phase should provide better data.

I normally purchased my tickets on the day of arrival on the chance that we had to cancel our vacation and thus minimize our financial outlay. I've been debating about when to get them.

If FP+ are being held back from advance res than I don't see the advantage of buying my tickets in advance. Also, we weren't planning of buy my DH's in advance as there is a possibility he will have to cancel last-minute for work. I'm not clear if we will be able to link his FP+ res to ours if we gets ours earlier.

 

[Missyrose]

I'm suspecting that fewer FP+ reservations will be available in advance as it gets rolled out to all guests. I don't think recent reports are really helping for planning in the upcoming months as the strategy changes based on FP- availability, KTTW card availability, and FP+ for off-site guests. Though the MK phase should provide better data.

I normally purchased my tickets on the day of arrival on the chance that we had to cancel our vacation and thus minimize our financial outlay. I've been debating about when to get them.

If FP+ are being held back from advance res than I don't see the advantage of buying my tickets in advance. Also, we weren't planning of buy my DH's in advance as there is a possibility he will have to cancel last-minute for work. I'm not clear if we will be able to link his FP+ res to ours if we gets ours earlier.

The problem Disney runs into is if at 46 days out, there aren't the FP+ reservations an onsite guest wants, they're much more likely to cancel their package.

 

[magicbob]

That's true, but couldn't someone create a "throw away" MDE account and add tickets from UT, or purchased onsite with cash? Seems like a lot of work, but I'm always amazed at what people will sell, and buy.

Admittedly, I have not delved into the intricacies of an MDE account, but wouldn't the "throw away" account still be associated with a real person's name and other information? Perhaps it would work if the person who buys the tickets is not required to show ID at any point.

Maybe I'm wrong, it just seems like opening up FP+ in advance for non resort guests is opening Disney up to other issues.

Also, they are already showing signs of not having enough FP+ reservations available for busy times. Otherwise, why would they be tiering headliners. If they open FP+ to everyone they will have no control over the masses trying to book the busiest days.

I agree. I'm not necessarily advocating for off-site to pre-book. Initially, Disney implied this would be the case, but that's looking less likely.

I agree that the more people who are eligible to pre-book = less availability. Time and time again we've discussed here that capacity is the real issue.

 

[mom2mickeyfan]

But this is what keeps coming back to me. Disney stated that the goal of this new program was to get guest locked into parks weeks before they ever reach Orlando so as not to be pulled into other attractions around town. It would seem that this statement is geared even more towards those that stay off-site compared to those that stay on-site. I hear so often how one of the perks of staying on-site is that they will pick you up at the airport and/or you never have to get in your car again after you get to your resort. Aren't those guest already locked into to Disney? It is all those off-site guest wandering around Orlando getting swayed by all that wicked advertisements they have to worry about. Not being able to get FP+ until they step inside the gate isn't locking them into anything!

 

[HockeyMomNH]

I'm just playing devil's advocate here... I have not played with MDE enough to know what is possible either. Nor do I really have any inclination to do so.

I don't remember what Disney said about prebooking exactly in the past either. I remember reading the terms of use when the app was first released. Although, prebooking could just mean booking FP in the morning day-of. It is still an "upgrade" from the old FP where you just go to the ride and get what time you are given.

Actually, if the park was not overly busy, and the technology worked quickly and accurately, this would be a real upgrade.

 

[Wood Nymph]

We were there NYE week and had really no trouble changing things around in the morning at all, even changing to a different park. While in the park I did notice that if FP- times were still available, I could easily change times to any time that FP- had. I will be interesting when FP- is gone to see what that does for FP+ times.

I think that your experience should really put some people at ease. The Disney resort guests have been able to book fp+ 60 days in advice for months now. If the busiest time of the year still had fp+ slots open, then I can't see that changing much when it comes to booking fp+'s ahead of time once fp- goes away. I think it shows that the pre-booking window will always have plenty of fp+ slots to choose from, especially since it was shown to be true during the busiest time of year.

As far as off-site guests go, I don't think that they will be able to pre-book fp+'s. The speculation that there won't be any fp+'s available when they walk in the park doesn't seem like a likely event to me, since we already know for a fact that during the busiest time of the year the resort guests had not taken all the fp+ slots by the time the park opened. Since there will no longer by fp- there will be more slots for fp+.

 

[Wood Nymph]

I agree that the more people who are eligible to pre-book = less availability. Time and time again we've discussed here that capacity is the real issue.

If we assume that only resort guests can pre-book, then we have already experienced the maximum number of people who are eligible to pre-book. The resorts were full at Christmas, all resort guests were able to pre-book, and there was still availability during the day. There is not going to be another time when more people are eligible to pre-book, unless of course off site guests get added.