I think the experiences you're seen presented on this board are not quite the norm. In general, expect to have an ongoing search and most exchanges are matched at 4-6 months before the trip. II cannot give you a unit until they have one to give. That means an owner at X resort must deposit before you can get one. Many units with II are deposited at the time dues are paid and many at 2-6 months before the week in question. The majoritiy of the posts are about getting exchanges that are not that difficult if you have the exchange power. Smaller units, call at the right time (9-12 months out),
DVC has good trade power. It's all in the flexibility, timing and being realistic. If you ask for a 2 BR for Aruba or HI, not many chances but you might be lucky. On the other hand, a 2 BR in Cancun would the the usual, at least for the DVC exchange list.
Lets take HI summer time. I have a request in for July, 2002. I am looking for 2 weeks back to back with one on Maui and one on Kauia. I would prefer a 2 BR but a 1 BR is workable. I only want the top resorts. I have two searches going on with II and one with DVC. Since most units in HI cannot be deposited before 12-13 months before the week in questions, I don't expect anything until summer. The exceptions that come to mind are Kona Coast, I think they are 2 years out for deposits or there abouts. I was offered a week there but really wanted Kauia and Maui.
I have talked to several of the independent exchange companies, which will likely give us additional options but I hesitate to deposit a unit with them as there are no guarantees and I wouldn't want to have a deposit sitting with them that I didn't use on this exchange. SFX and Trading places are likely the two best additional options but neither do request first on a routing. SFX does request first for those that pay a membership fee. I also have feelers out for direct exchanges as well.
Look at OKW for Adventure and Dream for the same size unit to get a comparable range of points costs. Remember you must generally give up the points for the unit you get even if it's larger than you need. There are exceptions in that if you are searching for a 1 BR and they give you a 2 BR, the cost if for a 1 BR. If you accept a 2 BR instant match, it will cost you 2 BR worth of points.
Hopefully, this will give you a feel for some of the variables involved.
Dean