Financially Savvy People - Would you go?!?!

[2TxAgs]

I too am financially conservative, and we make a good salary, but I still would consider $4k too much for a family of 3 and a toddler if our jobs were the slightest bit at risk. Especially as I know that our trip for 5 nights, for 5 people, including airfare and a moderate resort stay was quite a bit less than that.

I'm *DYING* to go back (we went in August for the first time in 6 yrs), but I
don't see it happening until 2009, when my oldest two are finished with middle school. I keep wondering if they'll still enjoy it and want to go. But common sense tells me that it's best to hold off, and that a long weekend out at the lake with canoes and hot dogs will still be a great time (and much cheaper) for our family.

Best of luck in your decision. If I *HAD* to go, it would be in a value resort, with a Ding fare and no dining plan - we can eat much cheaper than that!
But if the reason for another trip is to stay in the WL with the discount, then no, I would not go.

TxAg

 

[neatokimmo]

GO if your mortgage is paid off.

But I think the little voice in your head is saying no or you wouldn't of asked us

 

[Darcy03231]

Another no vote here and I know exactly where you are coming from. DH also works in the building industry (commerical construction) and while it isn't likely he'll be laid off, you never know, as things are very slow now. My job is very secure. The only way I'll ever be laid off is if the company closes (and since I do the books I know that isn't happening). We have two homes and four cars with only one mortgage and one car loan, both of which have small balances left on them. We also have substantial savings, retirement savings and no credit card debt. We live way below our means and contribute to savings and retirment every month, along with our children's college funds. We are not taking a big vacation this year. While the possibility is slim that DH will be laid off I'm saving every extra dime I can, just in case. Once things are more secure we'll go on vacation. WDW will always be there. I'm planning for the "just in case" even though it may never happen. Even substantial savings can be eaten up quickly if you both lose your jobs and have to start paying for your own health insurance. If you get laid off it may take quite some time before you're able to find employment. I just wouldn't chance it.

 

[MinnieMom]

Thank you all for your good and honest advice. Although I can't bring myself to cancel the trip just yet, I am preparing myself for the fact that I may have to. I haven't even told the kids yet that I booked it just in case I had to cancel, so I have had that gut feel that it would have to be done

I have until September to cancel, so I'm going to wait it out, but not have my hopes up. If things turn around for our jobs and we have the cc paid off with a good bit still in savings then maybe I'll consider it, but only if our jobs seem stable and the economy is more secure (though I doubt that will be the case . . . a girl can hope, can't she?!?!)

Although I said DH and I are in the building industry (and we are), most of our work comes from remodeling and I know that is down too, but I'm still hopeful that it will pick up somewhat. I work for a window manufacturer and DH works for a tile/linoleum manufacturer. So, I am still hopeful that come Spring people may need new windows!

Anyway, thanks for all the positive input. I am now bracing for the worst (because it is the smart, practical thing to do)!

 

[englishteacha]

Hmmm....I've got mixed feelings here. If I were you, I probably would plan a vacation, but maybe cut back on what I'd spend. I'd rent a condo offsite, get a cheap rental car, eat some in the condo, etc. Our past 2 vacations were terrific, and with condo rates around $50-75 a night, a whole lot less than any Disney property. I know some say that there's less "magic," but I can't see spending extra for magic! I feel magic when I see the castle, or ride the monorail, or stand and look at the Epcot golf ball (oops, I mean, geodesic sphere...).

So...if I were you, I'd look into other options. I know WL must be a lovely place, but if you do a cost analysis, will you have any less fun staying elsewhere?

 

[EthansMom]

Thank you all for your good and honest advice. Although I can't bring myself to cancel the trip just yet, I am preparing myself for the fact that I may have to. I haven't even told the kids yet that I booked it just in case I had to cancel, so I have had that gut feel that it would have to be done

That's what I've been considering doing also if I can get Free Dining.... Making the reservation and then cancelling if things aren't looking good later in the year. As long as you aren't out any money for cancelling, it isn't such a bad plan.

Good Luck!

 

[tycopj]

My gut response is YES go, life is short! BUT, after reading all the posts, I'm more in the group of NO don't go.

Discounts do come out often.
Disney will still be there.
Job security is not there.
Christmas next year, will it put you in debt again?
$4000 for a trip could pay off the $5000 cc.
You have been many times, so it's not a once in a life time opp.

Pay off the cc instead of the trip. Save the money you would have spent on the trip for a trip the first of 2009. You will get past the Holidays, have the cc paid off, and a better outlook on the job situations.

I wouldn't book a trip with the thought of "I can always cancel". For me it would be next to impossible to cancel a trip that is right there waiting for me.

Like I said, my heart would tell me go..go..go, but my DH has helped me to be a bit more pratical ( I have helped him to be a bit LESS practical ) Of course my DH would say absolutely do NOT go.

You know what is best for your family, I hope you are able to go. If you can't go during the 40% discount, just tell yourself and plan on a trip in 2009.

 

[HM]

If you can pay off the CC and save for the trip beforehand, yes. I would also make the trip a bit shorter as well and look for other ways to economize the trip. For three of you to spend $4400 and have one flight free, seems like a lot to me (with a 40% room discount). I'd go ahead and book and if you have to, just cancel before there is a penalty if need be.

 

[mickeyfan2]

Home Depot and Lowes are seeing huge turn downs in their businesses. One needs to get home equity loans to afford to remodel. Those are very hard to get a hold of right now.

 

[dvcgirl]

Sorry, but this is a little melodramatic. I don't see anything so dire in her circumstances. No need to scare her.

I wasn't trying to scare her. I was just shocked that she was considering it to be honest. If you *both* work in the building industry, and housing starts aren't expected to bottom until late this year (if we're lucky)....wouldn't you be padding your emergency fund and pay down debt instead of taking a vacation? It's not exactly like builders are going to go gangbusters when we hit 2009 as if it was 2004 again. It will take years for that industry to come back.

It would be one thing if one of them is in the building industry and the other one is say...a tenured teacher or another recession-proof job. Even though the financial situation isn't dire right now, one job loss and that emergency fund will go quickly. How long would it take for them to find a job in that industry in the current environment?

What is the harm in waiting one more year? Disney World isn't going anywhere, and the idea that Disney will never offer discounts like this again is ludicrous. Get through 2008 and reevaluate in 2009.

I make no secret out of the fact that I'm a fiscal conservative. So clearly, I'm on the other end of the scale from this person. My DH works in the software industry and was laid-off in 2003. He was *the* last person to go...literally, there were 80 people in his office and he was the lone employee in that building for a few months at the very end. So...we've BTDT.

The difference for us that year was that we padded our emergency fund, cancelled a Disney trip that was booked even though we had absolutely no debt (not even a mortgage). When the layoff happened my husband didn't have to panic and take the first thing available. And yet the job he did take was 20% less than he was making when laid-off...and had taken two pay cuts in the previous year in that job.

 

[dvcgirl]

Thank you all for your good and honest advice. Although I can't bring myself to cancel the trip just yet, I am preparing myself for the fact that I may have to. I haven't even told the kids yet that I booked it just in case I had to cancel, so I have had that gut feel that it would have to be done

I have until September to cancel, so I'm going to wait it out, but not have my hopes up. If things turn around for our jobs and we have the cc paid off with a good bit still in savings then maybe I'll consider it, but only if our jobs seem stable and the economy is more secure (though I doubt that will be the case . . . a girl can hope, can't she?!?!)

Although I said DH and I are in the building industry (and we are), most of our work comes from remodeling and I know that is down too, but I'm still hopeful that it will pick up somewhat. I work for a window manufacturer and DH works for a tile/linoleum manufacturer. So, I am still hopeful that come Spring people may need new windows!

Anyway, thanks for all the positive input. I am now bracing for the worst (because it is the smart, practical thing to do)!

Again, I'd probably wait. A lot of business in the home remodeling business came from the 5 trillion dollars pulled out of houses in the form of home equity loans in the past five years. Things don't come to a total stop, I get that. My own sister and family are buying a real fixer-upper (dirt cheap I might add) and will be pouring money into it in the next year. But things are going to continue to slow, fairly significantly.

Why not pay down the debt, and pad that emergency fund. If you get through 2008 without a job loss (and I sincerely hope you do!), you use some of that extra padding for a great trip to Disney.

 

[StephMK]

My only advice is never assume your job is safe. DH's former employer went through several layoffs over the years & on shaky ground. DH & his fellow dept members *thought* they were safe because they were reduced down to 4 people covering a 24/7 operation. Well, that January one of them was let go anyway. It should have been DH if they went by seniority but another had a much worse attendance record & didn't pitch in to cover shifts like DH.

That was the final straw for us & he started job hunting & left a few months later. The laid off person was diagnosed with cancer shortly after and not sure what happened because DH lost touch, I hope she is ok.

 

[MinnieMom]

dvcgirl,

You didn't scare me. Although I appreciate CheshireVal's sentiment, I was actually expecting (and hoping for) a candid response from you It was what I needed to hear.

I read your comments on the financial topics often and think "I need to be more conservative like that!" So, I didn't get scared - just had my eyes opened to reality!

 

[harleyquinn]

Sounds like this may be a good year to go to WDW if everyone around here is staying home!

OP, I think you are doing the right thing. Keep the ressie for now and see how things pan out. Good Luck!

 

[LoveBWVVBR]

No way would I go! You guys have credit card debt and are in a very shaky industry. I'd be working hard to pay off the credit card and to up the amount I saved every month right now. It sounds like a layoff is inevitable Disney will always be there, and good rates will always be there. When the economy turns around and your job situation is more stable, you could rent DVC points and stay in a VWL studio for a very economical rate off-season.

 

[LSchrow]

you've received some great advice
my $.02:
as long as you can cancel without penalty, keep the ressie until the last few days. at that point reassess where you are (the CC debt should be paid off by that time tho). use the next 7 months to earn a little extra money (do O/L surveys for a few dollars each, sell some things on craigs list, etc), figure different ways to trim some costs (as much as we enjoy the DDP, i would seriously reconsider it; use CC to pay bills & use accumulated "points" for rainforest, etc; get base passes instead of hoppers). keep a change jar, & just add what you've accumulated onto a disney GC every few weeks or so (that way, it won't be touched. & since the GCs never expire or lose value, you can always use it on another trip if need be).

since WL is really important to you, that is the one thing i wouldn't change tho .


if things seem stable, go.
if not, as others said, WDW will be there next year
best of luck with whatever you decide tho

 

[Irin997]

Has anyone checked out her signature? Here it is:

1991 - off-site
2001 - off-site
2002 - POR
2003 - Disney Magic Cruise
2004 - Disney Magic Cruise
2005 - FW
2006 - off-site
2007 - off-site

They have gone to Disney or cruised every year for the past 7 years. Is it REALLY necessary to go again, just to make it 8 years in a row? Sorry, it just seems awfully extravagant at this time and particularly with the possibility of layoffs and obviously the continual housing slump.

 

[HenDuck]

I'll vote wait and see . Sorry, that doesn't really help, does it?

I don't see the CC debt as a red flag, since the OP has the cash to pay it off and it's on a zero interest CC.

JMHO, but I wouldn't stay at a deluxe resort. I'd hop off-site and do a real budget vacation. Run through the exercise of seeing how cheap you can go without sacrificing your comfort level. Maybe it's doable for $3k or less (?)

If the only reason you want to go is to stay at WL, I'd say stay home and reassess.

Despite the fact that we are not in MY IDEAL financial condition, we are planning a budget WDW trip in '09, but I already have the cash set aside for it, we've shaved $2k off the initial budget, and I have aging parents who can go NOW but maybe not in another year or two, KWIM? These are all considerations which weighed heavily in favor of us going next year and not having any regrets. But if it all goes to you-know-where in a handbasket within the next 12 months, I will not hesitate to cancel the whole thing.

Sorry so long and indecisive. Life is not so easily planned, eh?

Good luck with your decision. I hope you both stay employed and get to go to WDW soon!

 

[DiznEeyore]

Has anyone checked out her signature? Here it is:

1991 - off-site
2001 - off-site
2002 - POR
2003 - Disney Magic Cruise
2004 - Disney Magic Cruise
2005 - FW
2006 - off-site
2007 - off-site

They have gone to Disney or cruised every year for the past 7 years. Is it REALLY necessary to go again, just to make it 8 years in a row? Sorry, it just seems awfully extravagant at this time and particularly with the possibility of layoffs and obviously the continual housing slump.

Um, if you'd read her post, you'd have seen that she made note of the fact that they've taken all of these trips. So we really have no need for the "trip-counting signature police" to call her out. Seriously, that gets SO old.

To the OP, we also have some CC debt but are still planning a trip for this year. It will be a *big* trip because it's our last planned family trip with our teenager. That being said, we are also fully prepared to cancel if the unthinkable should happen.

Also, 3 years ago, my husband's company was laying off people right and left. The owner told my husband to his face that he had no reason to worry -- he was the sole IT support for the company and they needed him. However, we didn't have a good feeling about it and immediately cancelled our planned trip (that was still 6 months out) and began saving all that we could. Sure enough, not two months later, dh was let go with NO notice and NO severance.

So, my thought is to trust your gut and start pulling in the reins, but there is no reason not to put a refundable deposit down on the trip should things turn out better than you hope. Good luck!

 

[ceecee]

Sorry, I would have to vote no too. There will be other deals at Disney and WL isn't the end all trip of trips! Save the money, if I thought there was a chance of one or both incomes being lost I just couldn't do it. The CC needs to be paid off too.