I don't have insight for that (in late June we walked up with no problem), but if it's a must-do I would recommend planning earlier in the day to give options in case things don't pan out as hoped.
I went at 3:40 for the 4 p.m. show on Saturday and due to technical issues, they didn't run the last two shows of the day. That was my one shot to see it. I went to EE instead (rain was approaching) of Lion King first after hopping and missed out. I wished I'd done Lion King first.
We walked into the 12:30 show on September 16th around 12:20. There were still seats available - I’d say it was about ⅔ - ¾ full by the time it started.
Went the weekend of July 4th and waited in line 15 to 20 minutes. Had good seats BUT wish the show would come back in its entirety. Went to Frozen at HS and it was one of the best productions ever. They did the entire show and snow.
We were there yesterday, around 11AM, and were the 5th in line. The wait was about 15 to 20 minutes. It was about 80% full. I do miss the Tumbling Monkees and the trapeeze act. The 2 trapeeze artist do a lovely dance, but it is not airborn. The show is still excellent.
I walked up on 9/20 and got in 5 minutes prior. They had cancelled the 9:30 performance so the 10:30 was pretty full. If you are going at a busier time then you could get there earlier but it does fit a lot of people.
Have there been any rumors about if or when the Lion King Show Festival will return? It's nice to have the modified show, but it is simply not the same as the original!
Have there been any rumors about if or when the Lion King Show Festival will return? It's nice to have the modified show, but it is simply not the same as the original!