False wait times in order to increase the cost of the headliners at the parks

[emily nicole]

We found this to be true on our trip earlier this week. Of course the crowds were very low this week. Many rides that were a literal walk-on would have a 15 minute or 20 minute wait posted. Slinky was posted at 40 but I knew it didn't look like a 40 minute wait, so we timed it, and it was 22 minutes. On the other hand, Frozen had a 30 minute posted wait and it was a solid 30 minutes. I am not sure if it's intentional or just not always updated, or what the deal is.

 

[parasail_of_congress]

Simple.

You see posted wait times of 20-30 minutes. Are you going to buy Genie+ or Individual Attraction Purchases?

You see posted wait times of 50-60 minutes. Are you going to buy Genie+ or Individual Attraction Purchases?

That's monetizing higher wait times.

So you're telling me that, according to posters here, Disney has been inflating times all of these years in preparation of selling Genie+? I'll give credit for some of Disney's future thinking, but come on ...

 

[parasail_of_congress]

Even if they wanted to post precisely accurate wait times, exactly how would they do it? They can track when someone enters the line and when they reach the ride, like they did with the red cards, but that wait time might not be the same for someone entering the line at the time that the first person is riding. It’s always going to be a lagging indicator.

I think they intentionally post longer times largely for the psychological reason others have mentioned. Post 20 and wait 30 and customer is upset. Post 40 and wait 30 and customer is happy.

I always refer to the Touring Plans estimated wait times and find them to be a pretty accurate reflection of what the actual wait time will be.

This is the correct response. And when the times are reversed (posted wait time is substantially less than the real wait time) it's usually due to an unforeseen issue with the ride.

 

[Nabas]

So you're telling me that, according to posters here, Disney has been inflating times all of these years in preparation of selling Genie+? I'll give credit for some of Disney's future thinking, but come on ...

I think you are conflating two different topics that have been discussed on this thread.

The first is whether Standby line wait times have been inflated in the past - they have.

The second is whether Disney can monetize wait times - they can.

Previously, wait times were inflated to either improve Guest satisfaction (“I was told I would have to wait 50 minutes but I only waited 35 minutes - that makes me happy”) or to discourage Guests from entering a Standby line near closing time (they want to get the parks closed).

Now, Disney has a financial incentive to continue to inflate times.

 

[Lilsia]

They used to give people those cards on a lanyard to give to the next cast member to check how long you waited. I don't think that they are doing that now so they are probably just guessing the wait times.

 

[parasail_of_congress]

I think you are conflating two different topics that have been discussed on this thread.

The first is whether Standby line wait times have been inflated in the past - they have.

The second is whether Disney can monetize wait times - they can.

Previously, wait times were inflated to either improve Guest satisfaction (“I was told I would have to wait 50 minutes but I only waited 35 minutes - that makes me happy”) or to discourage Guests from entering a Standby line near closing time (they want to get the parks closed).

Now, Disney has a financial incentive to continue to inflate times.

You are right to suggest that there are sort of two semi-related topics. My question regarding how to incentivize was to the OP, who suggested that because they noticed one inaccurate time, this was already occurring.

But regardless, I still think it's a little bit on the tin-foil hat side to assume Disney would inflate times to make guests already inside pay a few extra bucks when everyone outside the park can see those same times and may decide to not visit the park at all (not to mention that Disney expects some portion of the Genie+ and Lightning Lane Passes will be purchased in the morning before the parks even open).

 

[Nabas]

You are right to suggest that there are sort of two semi-related topics. My question regarding how to incentivize was to the OP, who suggested that because they noticed one inaccurate time, this was already occurring.

But regardless, I still think it's a little bit on the tin-foil hat side to assume Disney would inflate times to make guests already inside pay a few extra bucks when everyone outside the park can see those same times and may decide to not visit the park at all (not to mention that Disney expects some portion of the Genie+ and Lightning Lane Passes will be purchased in the morning before the parks even open).

You’re probably right. It probably is a bit tin foil to assume Disney will inflate wait times more than they already do.

The thing is, Disney expects Genie+ to perform at a targeted financial level. What happens if it fails to meet expectations?

Conversely, if Genie+ does meet expectations, it will be expected to perform even better next year.

Upper management will pressure middle management to figure out how to improve performance.

Higher prices? Sure. But you never approach this one-dimensionally. You also want higher sales.

What do you do to increase sales?

Remember, by design, Genie+ is intended to be a spur-of-the-moment purchase. (Advanced sales are limited to length-of-stay.) What does Disney do to make you want to buy Genie+ once you are already at the park?

The answer is obvious.

 

[EPCOT-O.G.]

Regardless of whether Disney is putting a thumb on the scale to increase wait times…

Genie+/LL is only valuable if lines are long.

So, they’re going to have a financial incentive to, say, reduce operational capacity in order to push people over to G+/LL. Wait times too short to push people to LL? Then everyone starts getting their own row in Pirates. I think there’s a lot they can do beyond just messing with posted wait times to push people towards G+/LL.

Put another way, look at how short lines were the last few weeks. Who in their right mind would’ve purchased either of these things?

 

[kniquy]

Inflated wait times have always been a thing. I guess it may be done so that someone doesn't get in line when it is a 30 min posted wait and then ends up waiting 50 minutes. I think since COVID wait times are always inflated. There were very few times on recent trips when the wait times were accurate. We typically waited less. The headliners will always have long waits - that isn't something WDW is creating it is a fact - SDMT, Slinky, FOP - they all have long waits that are not a result of disney but of just the high demand. Will i pay to ride any of them - nope. We have ridden enough to know that if you can hit them at park opening or even better the last ride before closing you won't have a very long wait.

 

[jjb1974]

You are right to suggest that there are sort of two semi-related topics. My question regarding how to incentivize was to the OP, who suggested that because they noticed one inaccurate time, this was already occurring.

But regardless, I still think it's a little bit on the tin-foil hat side to assume Disney would inflate times to make guests already inside pay a few extra bucks when everyone outside the park can see those same times and may decide to not visit the park at all (not to mention that Disney expects some portion of the Genie+ and Lightning Lane Passes will be purchased in the morning before the parks even open).

Disney isn’t worried about day-of/walk up sales, else they’d not have a park reservation system they put in place. Or have a system where you book dining months in advance. Or etc.Thats simply not a business concern for them. And they’ve already cut the Florida locals’ (who would do walk up) value with annual pass changes.

You’re giving a lot of benefit to the doubt to a corporation that is going out of its way to increase park revenue.

 

[cakebaker]

Genie+/LL is only valuable if lines are long.

For IAS, perhaps, but for Genie +? It would still be valuable to me. Given a choice of standing in line for 30 minutes to ride any of the more popular rides or waiting an hour and walking on it? I'll choose the walk on later option, for every ride I can. If lines for popular attractions are short, then the secondary rides should be walkons and Genie+ availability should be good. I can book next available for a ride with a wait, walk on the others while I wait for my return time.

For IAS, not so valuable, but depending on pricing (and during slower times I would expect lower prices) I'm betting there will be plenty of people willing to pay to avoid an hour wait for FOP, even thought that would be considered a fairly short wait time. Nevermind, not everyone studies wait times and historical data to know just how busy a park may be and will just buy Genie + without any consideration of how crowded the parks are- many of them before they ever arrive at WDW.

Of all the things I think Disney stoops to just to increase profits- intentionally increasing wait times to sell Genie + and IAS isn't one of them. That's just a little too far out in tin foil hat territory for me.

 

[Tyler's Dad]

It’s possible, that you are seeing this more because you are waiting in standby lines more now. How many of the rides you eare waiting for now, did you have fastpasses for in the past? Also, do you think that the standby time indicators are still calculating as if there was still fastpasses? You know, if the line reaches this point it should be x number of minutes. Now, without 70% of people being loaded coming from a completely different line, those standby lines are moving faster?

 

[reylas]

I am surprised to make it this far without someone trying to explain how it works. They *used* to hand out red lanyards (my kids would fight over carrying these) when you entered the line (the CM's at the Fast Pass/standby entry point). You would carry these to the point where the standby and fastpass lines would merge. They had a scanner there that they would use to tell how long you waited to that point. Simple math, if your wait was shorter than the posted time, they would average down the posted time but not replace the time with your time. This would smooth out big decreases in time and explain why it was never accurate in the evenings. If your wait was longer than the posted time, the posted time would become your time so that it would be a worst case.

Around 2017 they left the cards and started tracking magic bands. When you went past the initial point, your magic band was scanned (kind of like the ending of IASW) and it would scan you again at the merge point automatically. Same math applies.

Now, with the reduction in magic bands, they just scan your phone. *EVEN IF* you do not have MDE, your phone leaks a ton of information without you having to do anything. You can be tracked the same way without even knowing your information. Phone A enters the queue and Phone A is now on ride. Same math for the posted time. With today's phones, you can be tracked just as easy without the cost of magic bands, or the hassle of stolen lanyards. And I have heard of guests passing them back through the line to screw with the times.

I work in cyber security and have an interest in this stuff. It was how it was explained to me.

 

[lukemorenus]

Sneaky of them to start inflating times decades ahead of time... genius, in fact!

 

[rpfennig]

Of all the things I think Disney stoops to just to increase profits- intentionally increasing wait times to sell Genie + and IAS isn't one of them. That's just a little too far out in tin foil hat territory for me.

I wouldn't say intentionally increasing wait times but it does feel like with the introduction of Genie+, wait times shift from "a problem to be solved" to "a feature to be monetized". What's the incentive to try and improve wait times if the problem just takes care of itself (more people pay for Genie+) and they make more money in the process?

 

[a1tinkfans]

That’s been going on forever. I won’t say they purposely lie but…. We saw signs for 45+ minute waits last visit and Never waited over 15-29 minutes. I think it’s to get people moving thru out the park… but Now that one has to PAY the greedy Disney folks.. Sure Makes One Wonder..

 

[RoyandWalt]

I just discovered Kyle a few days. Got a kick out of him yelling Dad! from Splash and Big Thunder.