Easy WDW's estimated crowd levels

[sweetnjmom]

Are the estimates usually accurate?

When we were last at WDW (November 12-16 2013) the crowds were all at 3's and 4's (with a 6 our last day) but we had chosen the "wrong" parks for 4 of the 5 days--going with the AM EMH each time. Despite that, the crowds weren't TOO bad, overall. The longest waits for most rides were 25 minutes. We did "test" FP+ an it worked well for us then.

This trip we're staying off site and with the exception of our 1st day in MK on 5/3, we're pretty much hitting Josh's recommended parks and the crowds are mostly 5's with a few 4's. The last time I was there the first week of May was 2009 and the crowds, in our opinion, were lower.

I know that WDW is busier now than it was a few years ago, so I realize early May isn't as slow as it was. But I'm hoping that by picking the recommended parks that we'll have a better shot at shorter standby waits.

 

[LaurenT]

Are the estimates usually accurate?

When we were last at WDW (November 12-16 2013) the crowds were all at 3's and 4's (with a 6 our last day) but we had chosen the "wrong" parks for 4 of the 5 days--going with the AM EMH each time. Despite that, the crowds weren't TOO bad, overall. The longest waits for most rides were 25 minutes. We did "test" FP+ an it worked well for us then.

This trip we're staying off site and with the exception of our 1st day in MK on 5/3, we're pretty much hitting Josh's recommended parks and the crowds are mostly 5's with a few 4's. The last time I was there the first week of May was 2009 and the crowds, in our opinion, were lower.

I know that WDW is busier now than it was a few years ago, so I realize early May isn't as slow as it was. But I'm hoping that by picking the recommended parks that we'll have a better shot at shorter standby waits.

You will be almost guaranteed better of tharm going to a non recommended park ... And no matter what day or park, being at the gate before they open is always the single most important thing if you're looking for short lines.

 

[FencerGirl]

I personally have found his estimates to be fairly accurate. Of course, weather can throw that all out the window. We were there in January 2014 and always went to the most recommended park. Well, the excessive rain for the week we were there resulted in a very crowded MK when it finally cleared up.

 

[Hopefully]

I think Josh's estimates are fairly accurate estimates. They are based on his observations and his personal opinions.
I also think that the recommended park will result in lower crowds on most days.
I also agree with PP, the most important factor is to be there at rope drop

 

[richmo]

I personally have found his estimates to be fairly accurate. Of course, weather can throw that all out the window. We were there in January 2014 and always went to the most recommended park. Well, the excessive rain for the week we were there resulted in a very crowded MK when it finally cleared up.

Good point and it only takes a day. Just a couple of weeks ago, I went to MK on a recommended day. Problem was: the day before it rained quite a bit. The day I went turned into a very busy day at MK.

But overall, I've found the recommendations to be quite good.

 

[sweetnjmom]

Thanks everyone!

Since we have ADRs on most days at specific parks, we'll probably stick with our plans even if weather mixes things up. We changed our 2nd MK rope drop plans (orig. for 5/6) when I got a Star Wars Galactic Breakfast... so two of our three MK "days" start in the afternoon, since we have another HS breakfast ADR on 5/8 at H&V so my son can meet Doc McStuffins. But such is life... the ADR is more important to us this trip.

 

[Smokeyspawn]

There were fastpasses your last visit. You will find now that there are waits for things that never had waits. Being off site hurts.

 

[sweetnjmom]

There were fastpasses your last visit. You will find now that there are waits for things that never had waits. Being off site hurts.

I got most of the FP+ I wanted, even staying off site, with the exception of the 9 PM MSEP. I did have to be flexible, as my SDMT FP is at a 5:45-6:45 slot and I was hoping to have it earlier, but the only FP+ that were not available at any time were the FoF parade and Meet Anna & Elsa. Had I wanted Wishes, there was availability.

And while being off site hurts a bit, a free two-bedroom unit softens the sting a bit.

 

[mombrontrent]

I got most of the FP+ I wanted, even staying off site, with the exception of the 9 PM MSEP. I did have to be flexible, as my SDMT FP is at a 5:45-6:45 slot and I was hoping to have it earlier, but the only FP+ that were not available at any time were the FoF parade and Meet Anna & Elsa. Had I wanted Wishes, there was availability.

And while being off site hurts a bit, a free two-bedroom unit softens the sting a bit.

Totally agree with you! I am going the same time as you and we also got all the FP+ we wanted at the times we wanted. I had to take an evening 7DMT FP+ but we are not going to MK until after 4pm that day anyways.

Staying "off site" at Bonnet Creek in a 2bdrm, 2bath condo hurts my wallet a lot less and we NEED the space to spread out with kids aged 8, 12 and 15.