DVC Waitlist Question

[Disneyx6]

We have been using our DVC each year for 1 trip to Orlando, but this year and next year we are trying to plan a few bigger trips. I have waitlisted 3 nights at HH in July of this year, what are my chances of that happening? I need to make some decisions by April 30th. Also looking to book Aulani at my 7month window for Spring Break 2016, do you think I'll have trouble securing a 2 bedroom villa for 6 nights?Thanks for your help!