DVC and The Great Recession of 2007-2014

[Lumpy1106]

One other thing to keep in mind is that Disney can reduce SUPPLY to keep rack rates stable (and by association, DVC prices). This happened after 9/11 when Disney shut down POFQ temporarily. Remember that AoA was originally supposed to be Pop Century Generations but Disney temporarily halted construction on this resort too.

 

[DisneyRegulars]

We bought SSR in 2011 for $65 per point. I would love to buy more points if the prices went down again. Have loved every minute of ownership.

 

[emchen]

We bought SSR in 2011 for $65 per point. I would love to buy more points if the prices went down again. Have loved every minute of ownership.

How many points and was it resale? If direct, what sort of incentives brought it to $65 per point? Don't think SSR direct ever even opened that low...correct me if I'm wrong.

 

[DougEMG]

I thought the real price drops for DVC resale happened in the 2010-2012 time period, not 2008, am I wrong about that?

2010-2012 is the time period I am more familiar with as that is when I was buying. The market was flooded with sellers and very few buyers. Back then you could get loaded BWV contracts for $50-60 a point.

doubt that prices will fall that low again as the starting point for direct is so much higher now.

 

[DVC Doctor]

I also consider the 2011-2014 to be the golden period for buying DVC resales as there were SO MANY contracts via Fidelity that is was like shooting fish in a barrel. However, even then, you had to hunt for the best contracts and the best thing was to buy a loaded or even double or triple loaded contract with 2x or 3x points that could immediately be used or rented as they really were priced about the same as stripped contracts.

My only regret is not buying more BLT contracts. I was buying SSR and OKW as the price was about $20pp lower and I remember thumbing my nose at loaded BLT contracts at $80pp to take a loaded SSR for $60.

I also regret NOT buying a loaded OKW 1,000 contract for around $30pp as I originally offered $25 and then someone started a bidding war with me and took it for $29 or $30pp. But I was nervous buying a single 1,000 point contract so I walked away. Most of my resale purchases were in the 200-250 range.

I also am aware of a handful of buyers snatching up several thousand of points to build a huge collection.

Here are a few data points that I have logged in my computer database.

Direct from Disney
Black Friday 2009 - BLT @ $102 (loaded) and after renting bonus and current points, the net price was $82

Resales:
Oct 2012 - SSR @ $60 (loaded) and after renting banked and current points, the net price was $39
Oct 2013 - SSR @ $61 (loaded) and after renting banked and current points, the net price was $39
Nov 2013 - AKV @ $62 (loaded) and after renting banked and current points, the net price was $39
Feb 2014 - OKW @ $63 (loaded) and after renting banked and current points, the net price was $39
August 2014 - OKW @ $55 (loaded) and after renting banked and current points, the net price was $31
Sept 2015 - SSR @ $69 (loaded) and after renting banked and current points, the net price was $55
Jan 2017 - BLT @ $105 (loaded) and after renting banked and current points, the net price was $67

 

[tgropp]

I purchased 150 VWL points in 2007 and 125 BCV points in 2009. I was not affected by the recession and the Canadian dollar was at $1.13 compared to $0.75 now. I paid $76.00 and $81.00 for my contracts. My feeling is that DVC will be reeling from people giving their contracts back to Disney because of job losses, fianacial problems and bankruptcies. Disney’s greed will catch up to them hard. JMHO though.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

I thought the real price drops for DVC resale happened in the 2010-2012 time period, not 2008, am. Wrong about that?

2010-2012 is the time period I am more familiar with as that is when I was buying. The market was flooded with sellers and very few buyers. Back then you could get loaded BWV contracts for $50-60 a point.

doubt that prices will fall that low again as the starting point for direct is so much higher now.

Yes, the low spot was in that 2010-12 range. Especially just before and after the first resale restrictions went into effect in 2011. I could have gotten OKW for $40/pt with no negotiating but instead went for BWV at $50/pt at that time.

 

[emchen]

I thought the real price drops for DVC resale happened in the 2010-2012 time period, not 2008, am. Wrong about that?

2010-2012 is the time period I am more familiar with as that is when I was buying. The market was flooded with sellers and very few buyers. Back then you could get loaded BWV contracts for $50-60 a point.

doubt that prices will fall that low again as the starting point for direct is so much higher now.

Please tell us about some of your best buys during the period.

I also consider the 2011-2014 to be the golden period for buying DVC resales as there were SO MANY contracts via Fidelity that is was like shooting fish in a barrel. However, even then, you had to hunt for the best contracts and the best thing was to buy a loaded or even double or triple loaded contract with 2x or 3x points that could immediately be used or rented as they really were priced about the same as stripped contracts.

My only regret is not buying more BLT contracts. I was buying SSR and OKW as the price was about $20pp lower and I remember thumbing my nose at loaded BLT contracts at $80pp to take a loaded SSR for $60.

I also regret NOT buying a loaded OKW 1,000 contract for around $30pp as I originally offered $25 and then someone started a bidding war with me and took it for $29 or $30pp. But I was nervous buying a single 1,000 point contract so I walked away. Most of my resale purchases were in the 200-250 range.

I also am aware of a handful of buyers snatching up several thousand of points to build a huge collection.

Here are a few data points that I have logged in my computer database.

Direct from Disney
Black Friday 2009 - BLT @ $102 (loaded) and after renting bonus and current points, the net price was $82

Resales:
Oct 2012 - SSR @ $60 (loaded) and after renting banked and current points, the net price was $39
Oct 2013 - SSR @ $61 (loaded) and after renting banked and current points, the net price was $39
Nov 2013 - AKV @ $62 (loaded) and after renting banked and current points, the net price was $39
Feb 2014 - OKW @ $63 (loaded) and after renting banked and current points, the net price was $39
August 2014 - OKW @ $55 (loaded) and after renting banked and current points, the net price was $31
Sept 2015 - SSR @ $69 (loaded) and after renting banked and current points, the net price was $55
Jan 2017 - BLT @ $105 (loaded) and after renting banked and current points, the net price was $67

Love this! Thank you so much for the details! Did you actually rent out banked and current points or was that just a calculation you did? If actually rented out, do you have historical data on what points were renting for those days?

I purchased 150 VWL points in 2007 and 125 BCV points in 2009. I was not affected by the recession and the Canadian dollar was at $1.13 compared to $0.75 now. I paid $76.00 and $81.00 for my contracts. My feeling is that DVC will be reeling from people giving their contracts back to Disney because of job losses, fianacial problems and bankruptcies. Disney’s greed will catch up to them hard. JMHO though.

Great deals! Definitely seems the bottom was 2010-2014. Seems resale market lagged the housing market by a few years.

Yes, the low spot was in that 2010-12 range. Especially just before and after the first resale restrictions went into effect in 2011. I could have gotten OKW for $40/pt with no negotiating but instead went for BWV at $50/pt at that time.

Interesting insight. How many BWV points did you get at that price?

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Interesting insight. How many BWV points did you get at that price?

It was a 150 pt contract.

 

[DougEMG]

Please tell us about some of your best buys during the period.

One of the best deals I got was referred to me by another disboard member. It was 200 points at SSR, price was $50/point, seller paid MF, it came with 600 points which I rented out, so the net cost to me was $21.45/point.

Back then I was making multiple offers per week on contracts. Stupidly I would walk away from contracts that were $1-$2 higher then my original offers. I could cry over those now

 

[DougEMG]

My only regret is not buying more BLT contracts. I was buying SSR and OKW as the price was about $20pp lower and I remember thumbing my nose at loaded BLT contracts at $80pp to take a loaded SSR for $60.

I have the exact same regret as I did the exact same thing. Ended up buying BLT last year for $125/point. If I had of bought it back in 2012 I would have paid way less and of broke even on the purchase by now. Live and learn.

I also sold a couple of my contracts in 2014 thinking I would buy back in for cheaper. Cheaper never happened as prices just kept rising. Another mistake on my part. Trying to time things can be real annoying.

 

[emchen]

One of the best deals I got was referred to me by another disboard member. It was 200 points at SSR, price was $50/point, seller paid MF, it came with 600 points which I rented out, so the net cost to me was $21.45/point.

Back then I was making multiple offers per week on contracts. Stupidly I would walk away from contracts that were $1-$2 higher then my original offers. I could cry over those now

That adjusted-cost per point is the lowest I've seen on the board. Wonder if anyone has seen one lower?

I have the exact same regret as I did the exact same thing. Ended up buying BLT last year for $125/point. If I had of bought it back in 2012 I would have paid way less and of broke even on the purchase by now. Live and learn.

I also sold a couple of my contracts in 2014 thinking I would buy back in for cheaper. Cheaper never happened as prices just kept rising. Another mistake on my part. Trying to time things can be real annoying.

Timing DVC and the stock market is impossible, I reckon.

 

[MICKIMINI]

Recessions come and go...it's what you learned from the last time around that is important so you have the ability to ride it (them) out. In 2008 house prices were inflating widely out of control and people with bad credit and shaky job prospects were being approved for mortgages way over their ability to pay. DH and I made it through 2008 with our home and credit intact as we were putting our son through college (after prep school and before grad school). We all worked hard, cut costs and lived carefully. We continued to vacation at DVC and purposely spent less time in the parks and more resort time to preserve our cash. It was a very scary time and we are grateful we made it. Fast forward to 2019 - we sold our home a few years ago for a good profit and bought a smaller home and paid cash. Our DVC contracts were paid by cash.

I don't see more than a slow down (what do I know?) in the near future, but I am ready for it - whatever "it" is. If there is a good DVC deal out there I would scoop it up - likely from someone who didn't plan for the inevitable... DVC is a luxury not a necessity and if you can't afford it in a recession maybe you shouldn't consider it at all...a hard reality.

 

[DVC Doctor]

Love this! Thank you so much for the details! Did you actually rent out banked and current points or was that just a calculation you did? If actually rented out, do you have historical data on what points were renting for those days?

Back then, $10 was the going rate and if you got $11 that was fantastic. I remember borrowing from the next year as I thought rental prices could drop to $8 as some people were renting just to cover their annual dues. The recession was brutal and if we get another one, with many more DVC owners out there, the prices will drop for resales and rentals.

Back then I was making multiple offers per week on contracts. Stupidly I would walk away from contracts that were $1-$2 higher then my original offers. I could cry over those now

I feel your pain.....me too.

I also sold a couple of my contracts in 2014 thinking I would buy back in for cheaper. Cheaper never happened as prices just kept rising. Another mistake on my part. Trying to time things can be real annoying.

Oopsie...I still own mine and the only contracts I ever sold (for a profit of course) were some original WVL points I bought direct from Disney as I never used the 11 month booking window and wanted to get cheaper SSR points and the longer RTU.

 

[DizzyStitch]

I thought I did ok buying in 2012. I got 200 SSR points for 62.00 per point. I did not know much back then and could not tell you if the contract had points on it or not. I was a value person prior to that and I have never regretted the decision. If the opportunity comes to get more I think I might. Right now I can stay almost two weeks at SSR for under 1200.00 and I do love a long leisurely vacation. Of course I have to survive the signs I see at work. I will call them nervous times for now.

 

[com_op_2000]

My story from the recession:
I only own OKW points.
Originally bought in '93, bought again in '98.
Bought resale in '09.
Paid within $1/point for all my points.

 

[ffcheff]

I bought AKL for 68$ per point for 150 pt contract in 2011.

 

[DisneyRegulars]

How many points and was it resale? If direct, what sort of incentives brought it to $65 per point? Don't think SSR direct ever even opened that low...correct me if I'm wrong.

Sorry it was two separate resale contracts for 150pts each.

 

[luckyman_apd]

We got ours because of the recession. 2011. Closed in 2012. I low balled so many contracts. There was at least DOUBLE the resale listings at that time then you see right now. We snagged BLT for less than SSR was selling direct at the time.... And we got a loaded contract... Like REALLY loaded. I could have gotten an even better price on another contract but this one was everything I was looking for and loaded. After back and forth offer/counter offers... We were pretty much told take we won't go any lower this is our final price. There were big point BLT contracts (300+ points) going for like $80-82 per point!

 

[emchen]

So jealous of all you folks scoring contracts 2010 - 2012... wonder if there will be a repeat in 3 - 4 years time from now. Keep my powder dry for 2022 - 2024 lol.