does the number of points ...What about ANNUAL DUES HOW MUCH DO THEY RISE??

[hellokitty]

eDITED QUESTION:
WHAT ABOUT ANNUAL DUES HOW MUCH DO THEY GO UP EACH YEAR??
tHE WAY i SEE it If i purchase 200 pts. I have about $1100 dollars a year to spend on resorts including
annual fees....
so in 41 yrs. it would cost me $45,000 w/DVC i pay about 36,000 total (if fees remain same)
saving me only $9000???




ORIGINAL QUESTION:

we are wondering about buying into dvc, but unless you can lock in your points for the rooms
it doesnt seem worth it?

does disney change how many points needed for each resort every year? or are you locked in for the year you
purchased?

ie. if i buy 200 pts. today and it cost 108 today to rent a small wlv place, in 10 yrs. can i still get this same rate of
108 or will it be more by then?? making me have to purchase more points?

make any sense?

 

[* Potential DVC'er *]

Your question makes COMPLETE sense - and I'll try to answer it the best I know how as we also are looking into purchasing DVC.

FROM WHAT I GATHER and UNDERSTAND SO FAR: Although the number of points TOTAL for the YEAR required to stay at the resorts is GUARANTEED ** NOT ** to change. They can "mix and match" them around for example:

Generally Summer requires a bit more points because everyone wants (or usually wants) to travel then. Fall is the "off season" usually speaking and so points required are generally lower.

HENCE: If Disney sees a sudden, and steady increase in the people vacationing suddenly in the FALL because of the better point structure etc., - they reservce the right to "shift" where they want to.

PLEASE SOMEONE CORRECT ME IF I'M WRONG - but that's how it was explained to me.

At any rate - it's the steady increase of dues that keeps things comparable to "not" purchasing - that is if you are happy to stay in Disney's "Value" resorts (ie ASMovies, ASMusic and ASSPorts) - then you should NOT buy into DVC - you can stay there for probably less than the dues - or at least equivalent to the dues.

Then - if you like the "moderate" or especially if you like DELUXE resorts - this is where the comparsion begins to make sense. Why pay "deluxe" prices for a "hotel room" - when you can pay potentially over the long run LESS and stay in a "home away from home" - (and believe me once you try out say - OKW especially - there is no turning back!) - Now for us - BWV and WVL are SHOEBOXES compared to OKW so I wouldn't be so eager into buying anything but OKW (which is what we've been looking into). But certainly - to each his own!

Hope that helped shed some light in fo you.

 

[caverill]

One small addition to the above comments...

DVC does have the ability to change the given points per night, but the total yearly points must remain the same. So if they want to require more points for one thing, they must reduce points for another.

I believe that has only happened once in 10 years, but I could be wrong.

The points to stay at a non-DVC resort can change yearly, since those points must be exchanged out of DVC.

I think DVC is a good deal if you meet the following criteria:

- Visit DVC resort at least every three years.
- Like to stay on-site at WDW.
- Prefer to stay in Deluxe or Moderate resorts.
- Plan on vacationing for the next 41 years.
- Require flexability

Thanks,

 

[Towncrier]

An additional clarification which I think is necessary. If you intend to use your points outside of DVC, those rates are negotiated each year and will most likely increase. The number of points necessary, for example, to book a cruise will most likely increase each year until 2042. The only guarentee that we have as DVC members is that the total number of points to stay in any particular accommodation for an entire year can NEVER increase (as was pointed out by Potential DVCer).

 

[Caskbill]

DVC has only changed the point structure once. I put it together into a chart once for a previous posting, so here it is again. I believe the change was 1996.

This was at OKW resort. A <b>plus sign (+)</b> indicates the increase in number of points required for the indicated accommodation during the indicated day of week and season.

A <b> minus sign (-) </b> indicates the decrease in number of points for an accommodation.

As you can see, the adjustments were fairly minor. Note, do not just add up the pluses and minuses, they will not match.

To get the total <u>resort</u> adjustment, you would actually have to multiply each + for each room type by the number of units of that type, and then by the number of days for that particular season, to get the total number of "unit-days", and then add all these together. You would need to do the same for the minuses. Those total plus and minus figures would then be the final fugures that would match, showing that there was no <b>net</b> change in the total number of points for the entire OKW resort.

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FACE="Arial">Sun-Thu</FONT></TD><TD BGCOLOR=#FFFF99 ALIGN="center" STYLE="vnd.ms-excel.numberformat"><FONT FACE="Arial">nc</FONT></TD><TD BGCOLOR=#FFFF99 ALIGN="center" STYLE="vnd.ms-excel.numberformat"><FONT FACE="Arial">+ 1</FONT></TD><TD BGCOLOR=#FFFF99 ALIGN="center" STYLE="vnd.ms-excel.numberformat"><FONT FACE="Arial">+ 1</FONT></TD><TD BGCOLOR=#FFFF99 ALIGN="center" STYLE="vnd.ms-excel.numberformat"><FONT FACE="Arial">+ 1</FONT></TD></TR><TR VALIGN="bottom"><TD BGCOLOR=#FFFF99 ALIGN="right"><FONT FACE="Arial"><B> </B></FONT></TD><TD BGCOLOR=#FFFF99 ALIGN="left"><FONT FACE="Arial">Fri-Sat</FONT></TD><TD BGCOLOR=#FFFF99 ALIGN="center" STYLE="vnd.ms-excel.numberformat"><FONT FACE="Arial">nc</FONT></TD><TD BGCOLOR=#FFFF99 ALIGN="center" STYLE="vnd.ms-excel.numberformat"><FONT FACE="Arial">- 1</FONT></TD><TD BGCOLOR=#FFFF99 ALIGN="center" STYLE="vnd.ms-excel.numberformat"><FONT FACE="Arial">- 1</FONT></TD><TD BGCOLOR=#FFFF99 ALIGN="center" STYLE="vnd.ms-excel.numberformat"><FONT FACE="Arial">- 1</FONT></TD></TR><TR VALIGN="bottom"><TD BGCOLOR=#FFFF99 ALIGN="left"><FONT FACE="Arial"><B>Dream</B></FONT></TD><TD BGCOLOR=#FFFF99 ALIGN="left"><FONT FACE="Arial">Sun-Thu</FONT></TD><TD BGCOLOR=#FFFF99 ALIGN="center" STYLE="vnd.ms-excel.numberformat"><FONT FACE="Arial">nc</FONT></TD><TD BGCOLOR=#FFFF99 ALIGN="center" STYLE="vnd.ms-excel.numberformat"><FONT FACE="Arial">nc</FONT></TD><TD BGCOLOR=#FFFF99 ALIGN="center" STYLE="vnd.ms-excel.numberformat"><FONT FACE="Arial">nc</FONT></TD><TD BGCOLOR=#FFFF99 ALIGN="center" STYLE="vnd.ms-excel.numberformat"><FONT FACE="Arial">nc</FONT></TD></TR><TR VALIGN="bottom"><TD BGCOLOR=#FFFF99 ALIGN="right"><FONT FACE="Arial"><B> </B></FONT></TD><TD BGCOLOR=#FFFF99 ALIGN="left"><FONT FACE="Arial">Fri-Sat</FONT></TD><TD BGCOLOR=#FFFF99 ALIGN="center" STYLE="vnd.ms-excel.numberformat"><FONT FACE="Arial">- 1</FONT></TD><TD BGCOLOR=#FFFF99 ALIGN="center" STYLE="vnd.ms-excel.numberformat"><FONT FACE="Arial">- 2</FONT></TD><TD 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BGCOLOR=#FFFF99 ALIGN="right"><FONT FACE="Arial"><B> </B></FONT></TD><TD BGCOLOR=#FFFF99 ALIGN="left"><FONT FACE="Arial">Fri-Sat</FONT></TD><TD BGCOLOR=#FFFF99 ALIGN="center" STYLE="vnd.ms-excel.numberformat"><FONT FACE="Arial">- 2</FONT></TD><TD BGCOLOR=#FFFF99 ALIGN="center" STYLE="vnd.ms-excel.numberformat"><FONT FACE="Arial">- 4</FONT></TD><TD BGCOLOR=#FFFF99 ALIGN="center" STYLE="vnd.ms-excel.numberformat"><FONT FACE="Arial">- 5</FONT></TD><TD BGCOLOR=#FFFF99 ALIGN="center" STYLE="vnd.ms-excel.numberformat"><FONT FACE="Arial">- 8</FONT></TD></TR></Table>

 

[DisneyKidds]

We took the tour a couple of weeks ago. The way it was put to us was that the points required at the DVC resorts per night are fixed for the life of the contract. However, dates for the seasons may change. For example, Easter is always different so the dates for this most expensive season have to change. I guess it could also mean that the dates for the next most expensive season (now summer) could change to, say, the fall - but the salesperson didn't really hint at that, probably on purpose. If they lowered the points for other times of the year I guess it would satisfy their model. She did indicate that the points at DVC resorts have only changed once in 10 years.

If you use points to stay at other (non DVC) Disney resorts the points are subject to change on an annual basis. It takes a lot of points to stay in non DVC Disney resorts - you'd be better of paying cash and saving the points (IMO). Also, the points required for Concierge Collection resorts are negotiated annually and subject to change.

As for maintenance, 2-3% is what DVC says is the expected annual increase in dues. This is what it has averaged to date. If you are comparing to what you would spend on hotel rooms you have to figure this in. What you would also have to do is figure in some inflation in room rates in your comparison. Don't be shocked when you see your estimates of $36,000 and $45,000 go up significantly - inflation is a !@#$%^. However, in the long haul DVC is a good deal if the rooms you'd otherwise rent would be moderate and above. At least that is how we figured it before we made an offer on a VWL resale yesterday - still waiting to hear.

 

[mikek]

DisneyKidds-

Your understanding of the points is pretty accurate typically. The number per night stays the same in each season, they only move the dates of the season around (for example- thanksgiving is a different date every year.)

BUT, you should understand that they can shuffle the amount of points. See caskbills post right before yours, it is an example of how they shuffled the points in the past and might do so again in the future.

Also your point about inflation is HUGE.

HelloKitty
- inflation is a major factor involved in the math. A very simple way to estimate is called the rule (or law- i forget) of 72. Basically for inflation or interest effects on things, you divide 72 by the percentage rate and you get the number of years till the amount DOUBLES.

For example if you estimate that its 1100 a year now for cash reservations, and guess that inflation will average 3 percent. 72/3= 24 years. So in 24 years what cost 1100 today would cost 2200. If you quickly estimate that the first 24 years are 1100 (26400) and the remaining 17 years are 2200 (37400) you come up with 63,800 or about 18k more then your quick estimate.

ITs actually a lot bigger than that when you actually do the math for each year. You should also assume the dues increase at the same rate of inflation to get a reasonable estimate. Search the posts for a topic with more accurate numbers where people have done all the complicated math for you already. Theres one right now about breaking even. I'm sure if you do the fancy math like many of us have you'll find that if you would have stayed at the resort anyway it is a great savings over the life of the investment.

 

[PamOKW]

For the last few years there has been almost no change in the dues. They went up a little/down a little. In the beginning of DVC when it was only OKW the dues went up about 5% per year. Then there was this long period of relatively no change. For 2002, all the resorts have seen an increase of 2%-5% over 2001 dues. Here's a look at the last three years.

2000 2001 2002
OKW = $3.16 $3.13 $3.22
BWV = $4.02 $3.83 $3.92
HH = $3.26 $3.32 $3.49
Vero= $4.08 $3.98 $4.17
VWL = N/A $3.63 $3.80

 

[PamOKW]

I just wanted to stress as others have done that your $1,100 vacation is not going to be $1,100 until the year 2042. Unless going out to lunch will be your vacation in the later year.

The last two years have been unusual in that Disney is begging for business. However, in the recent past, room rates went up approximately 6% per year and those were years when there was little real inflation.

By your calculation, if you spend $1,100 every years from 2001 until 2012, you'll spend $13,200. If you use an inflation rate of 6%, you'll actually be spending $17,705 over the years to maintain the same vacation. Keep spreading that out until 2042 and you've spent a lot more than $45,000.

 

[Towncrier]

As pointed out at the OKW member's meeting in November, OKW dues have remained essentially flat for the past 5 years. This year's 2.8% increase is only the 2nd increase that we've seen since becoming members in 1995. The average increase in OKW dues has been 1.8% over the 10 year history of the resort. Keep in mind that OKW can legally raise dues by as much as 15% per year, but that has not been the case nor is it likely to be the case in the future.

 

[Granny]

Good points Towncrier....

It's important to remember that the dues go to pay actual maintenance and reserve expenses. Disney CANNOT legally make a profit on them. So we don't have to worry about dues increasing due to Disney trying to increase profits.

On the other hand, they will increase resort accommodation prices as often and as much as the market will bear. My guess is this will far outstrip the dues increase rate over the next few decades.

The proof is in PamOKW's post with the point history. You can see that some years, the dues actually go down! I don't think we'll ever see that with rack rates at the resorts!