Asia Disney Parks closed due to Coronavirus (SHDL, HKDL, TDL)

[TwoMisfits]

And almost all of those were elderly or had other health issues. So, I'll clarify, in the young, healthy population, it's a typically mild illness.

Just an FYI for info - it updates every day. Current death rate for totally healthy people is .9%...BUT even if you have something simple like hypertension, that soars the death rate to 6%...so, if you have no health issue of any type anywhere, then you are at risk at the level of seasonal flu deaths for old people (which is still much higher than your actual risk of dying from the flu if you are in perfect health)...and if you aren't...well, you might want to be more concerned...

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/
PS - They now have had deaths in the 10-19 range, and 20-29 range...although still none under 10...

 

[Itsnotmykitchen]

Just an FYI for info - it updates every day. Current death rate for totally healthy people is .9%...BUT even if you have something simple like hypertension, that soars the death rate to 6%...so, if you have no health issue of any type anywhere, then you are at risk at the level of seasonal flu deaths for old people (which is still much higher than your actual risk of dying from the flu if you are in perfect health)...and if you aren't...well, you might want to be more concerned...

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/
PS - They now have had deaths in the 10-19 range, and 20-29 range...although still none under 10...

That’s also a bit misleading though because it doesn’t give the age breakdown for the conditions. Based on all the numbers given, it seems like the majority of those with pre-existing conditions were still older. That’s also true for the flu, older people tend to have far more chronic health problems which the flu can exacerbate.

Also this is based on China only so it remains to be seen how this would compare to the US. A number of the younger deaths are from Chinese healthcare workers who have been overwhelmed with caring for these patients. Maybe that would be the case here but seems less likely - we are a much wealthier country.

 

[TwoMisfits]

That’s also a bit misleading though because it doesn’t give the age breakdown for the conditions. Based on all the numbers given, it seems like the majority of those with pre-existing conditions were still older. That’s also true for the flu, older people tend to have far more chronic health problems which the flu can exacerbate.

Also this is based on China only so it remains to be seen how this would compare to the US. A number of the younger deaths are from Chinese healthcare workers who have been overwhelmed with caring for these patients. Maybe that would be the case here but seems less likely - we are a much wealthier country.

Age is here...https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

Again, you start doing badly at 50, worse at 60 and even worse 70, and just forget it at 80...under 50 probably mimics flu death rate risk so far...

And this covers all the world numbers so far...

 

[Itsnotmykitchen]

I’m not saying age isn’t there, I’m saying the pre-existing conditions isn’t broken down by age so it’s entirely possible that the majority of patients presenting with any of those conditions who died were also over 65+.

 

[Farro]

Age is here...https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

Again, you start doing badly at 50, worse at 60 and even worse 70, and just forget it at 80...under 50 probably mimics flu death rate risk so far...

And this covers all the world numbers so far...

You start doing "badly at 50" if possibly you have a pre-existing condition most likely.

The numbers you are showing are the death rates overall - does not specify between healthy and non-healthy people.

 

[TwoMisfits]

You start doing "badly at 50" if possibly you have a pre-existing condition most likely.

The numbers you are showing are the death rates overall - does not specify between healthy and non-healthy people.

Healthy people (zero health issues) is .9% - but they don't distinguish age on them...

 

[DLgal]

Healthy people (zero health issues) is .9% - but they don't distinguish age on them...

It's also worth noting they say "no KNOWN health issues." A lot of people are walking around with undiagnosed hypertension, heart disease, diabetes, etc.

 

[Itsnotmykitchen]

It's also worth noting they say "no KNOWN health issues." A lot of people are walking around with undiagnosed hypertension, heart disease, diabetes, etc.

Right but this data is based on people who have already been diagnosed with these conditions so the no known health conditions would include people who are not aware of any pre-existing conditions. It states that the healthy death rate is based on patients who “reported” no pre-existing conditions. It’s not like they are testing everyone who comes in with coronavirus for all of these additional problems.

 

[DLgal]

Right but this data is based on people who have already been diagnosed with these conditions so the no known health conditions would include people who are not aware of any pre-existing conditions. It states that the death rate is based on patients who “reported” no pre-existing conditions. It’s not like they are testing everyone who comes in with coronavirus for all of these additional problems.

My point was simply that a lot of people HERE (in the USA) are probably saying to themselves "well, I'm completely healthy...I don't need to worry about this." And those same people probably haven't had a physical in 5 years.

A lot of people will end up caught off guard by this virus and end up very sick, not knowing it is because they weren't as healthy as they thought.

 

[Itsnotmykitchen]

My point was simply that a lot of people HERE (in the USA) are probably saying to themselves "well, I'm completely healthy...I don't need to worry about this." And those same people probably haven't had a physical in 5 years.

A lot of people will end up caught off guard by this virus and end up very sick, not knowing it is because they weren't as healthy as they thought.

Right but those same individuals in China still have a death rate under 1% and it’s unclear from this data whether the problem is pre-existing conditions or age PLUS pre-existing condition.

Edited to add; There are a lot of factors at play here so I don’t want to simplify anything; it’s entirely possible that diabetes and coronavirus don’t mix well but these numbers don’t say anything about that.

It’s difficult to use these numbers and compare China and the US. In one sense China most likely has way less younger people with diabetes and other chronic health problems but it’s also more densely populated and poorer so diseases spread easier and overall health and hygiene is lower. Just look at the wet market this probably started in - that would never exist here.

 

[Searc]

Just an FYI for info - it updates every day. Current death rate for totally healthy people is .9%...BUT even if you have something simple like hypertension, that soars the death rate to 6%...so, if you have no health issue of any type anywhere, then you are at risk at the level of seasonal flu deaths for old people (which is still much higher than your actual risk of dying from the flu if you are in perfect health)...and if you aren't...well, you might want to be more concerned...

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/
PS - They now have had deaths in the 10-19 range, and 20-29 range...although still none under 10...

People in those age ranges have pre-existing conditions that make them more susceptible.

 

[Searc]

Right but those same individuals in China still have a death rate under 1% and it’s unclear from this data whether the problem is pre-existing conditions or age PLUS pre-existing condition.

Edited to add; There are a lot of factors at play here so I don’t want to simplify anything; it’s entirely possible that diabetes and coronavirus don’t mix well but these numbers don’t say anything about that.

It’s difficult to use these numbers and compare China and the US. In one sense China most likely has way less younger people with diabetes and other chronic health problems but it’s also more densely populated and poorer so diseases spread easier and overall health and hygiene is lower. Just look at the wet market this probably started in - that would never exist here.

To put it in perspective, the population of China in 2018 was 1.4 billion people. The US population was 327 million.

 

[travelgirl77]

So the CDC announcement yesterday freaked me out a little, but then I decided to go back and look at the news from the swine flu pandemic in 2009. It was virtually the same. This could very well become a pandemic much like the swine flu (which we were completely ill prepared for...it was literally at the U.S. doorstep before we knew what was happening, unlike this one). CDC warned schools about closings, stockpiling medical supplies, etc. It is difficult to keep up with statistics in the middle of an outbreak, try as we may. Looking back at what has historically been reported, as in the swine flu, really gave me perspective about this. And, although I know many will say "we cannot trust what comes out of China," it has been consistently reported that infected cases and deaths there have plateaued and even started to decline, at the center of the outbreak and throughout the rest of China. I read that there were empty beds for the first time at a lot of the hospitals which just has not been the case in previous weeks. While the Chinese were completely blindsided (no conspiracy theories please) by this, at least the rest of the world and especially those of us on this board, have governments and health officials who are better prepared for what may come.

 

[Fido Chuckwagon]

The problem is they don't plan to start the test until end of April with results in August. I understand they want to do it right, but I really don't get why it'll be two months before they start the test.

Because it takes time to manufacture vaccine.

 

[Fido Chuckwagon]

This is wrong. The CDC has extraordinary emergency powers to shut down mass gatherings in the event of an emergency. It doesn’t have to be end of the world bad. It also doens’t have to be nationwide the can do it in areas experiencing outbreaks.

 

[Farro]

This is wrong. The CDC has extraordinary emergency powers to shut down mass gatherings in the event of an emergency. It doesn’t have to be end of the world bad. It also doens’t have to be nationwide the can do it in areas experiencing outbreaks.

Such a key statement.

I think people are envisioning being blockaded in their houses.

Most likely, at worst, you'll tele-commute for work, schools may close for a bit. Museums may close, sporting events may be cancelled. Only in areas experiencing an outbreak.

Grocery stores should be open (unless of course everyone panics and calls in sick to work), utilities would stay on, etc.

Look to the rest of the world now and see how cities with outbreaks are coping.

Although I will say, part of me isn't feeling so bad anymore that we had to postpone this year's early May trip to next year!

 

[Brianstl]

The health ministry in Japan yesterday asked that businesses which have events with large gatherings of people to consider there necessity before continuing with them. It is just question of how soon now before we will hear about the Tokyo parks being shut down.

 

[DLgal]

Coronavirus has been spread at one US military base in Korea as of yesterday. A woman who is the widow of a US Servicemember visited 2 stores on base and she is now hospitalized with the virus. 2 civilian employees of those base stores are also infected. Korean Military bases are now on high alert and some are on lockdown due to 15 cases among Korean troops.
Currently, our government and theirs are discussing suspending some scheduled joint training exercises and they are considering revoking leave and liberty for US troops stationed at US bases.

My husband was supposed to go to Korea next week for a training exercise. It has been pushed back a week so far, and it may be cancelled altogether. He just told me "pretty sure I'm not going to Korea."

 

[IanDLBZF from MCMagic]

https://www.wftv.com/news/local/ora...ed-cases-reported/E7DKOBONFBBULLLG27X4PBSVZM/CMs who traveled to Italy asked to stay home.

 

[QueenElinor]

A number of the younger deaths are from Chinese healthcare workers who have been overwhelmed with caring for these patients. Maybe that would be the case here but seems less likely - we are a much wealthier country.

According to Bruce Alyward, head of the WHO mission to China that just returned, the thinking is that the HCW who caught coronavirus got from home. How they know this is unclear (to me it's just more CYA talk from China) but that's what he said.

China has a pretty modern health-care system. In fact, they have more beds per capita than the US does. Now, whether or not they have the skill level is debatable, but they are far from a third-world country in terms of their medical care.

I think we can attribute the higher death rates in Hubei to them being overwhelmed- I don't think we can attribute it to being incompetent. Which means the same high death rates can happen here.