I say they low-ball the figure, and if it doesn't work out put that money to better use installing new attractions at AK (making it a full-day park) as well as additions at the existing parks. Taking on a 5th gate in this economy is suicide, and at the same time cannibalism, particularly when you consider most families visiting Disney from around the country and the globe only spend an average of 5-7 days in Orlando. There simply isn't enough time to do that much. 10-15 years from now it may be worth it. Now... I think it would backfire. My opinion.
I guess I understand, intellectually at least, why you and others consider AK a half-day park, but the last two years, our family has spent at least 1.5 days there and still not done everything. Maybe it's just the sheer size of the place. But I agree that I would like to see more investment in the existing gates -- Beastly Kingdomme, anyone? An Australia or South America land in AK would be nice, also.
I don't, however, think that purchasing SW would be suicide. In fact, competitively it would make a lot of sense:
As visitors arrive at Universal for the new WWoHP, there's an entire park in their faces reminding them which brand created Orlando as we know it.
Removing SW, Aquatica and Discovery Cove from the Orlando FlexTicket would be a blow to Universal.
Having SW as a 5th gate in the MYW w/Park Hopper option would create a value-added bonus for WDW visitors. For example, our last two trips to Orlando have been exclusively WDW. Our next trip, the wife wants to do Sea World, Universal, et al -- exclusive of Disney. She's not really jazzed about Universal, but financially it makes more sense than combining Sea World and WDW.
Just as InBev is looking to unload Busch Entertainment in order to offset the purchase cost of AB, I could see Disney then selling off San Antonio and San Diego to offset the Sea World purchase.
Regarding the economy as a whole, it's likely to turn around after the election. Until then, there'll only be talk of what to do without any real action.
All that being said, if the purchase of SW means no new attractions/lands at the existing gates over the next 5-10 years, then I say pass.
I'm pretty well versed though on the history of it. I know that Walt was very frustrated that he couldn't purchase the land around the Disneyland complex to prevent it becoming a tacky tourist trap, like it did for decades. He actually called the surrounding area a "second rate Vegas" and wasn't happy how the vision of his park was tainted by some of the lodging and tourist offerings. One of the reasons why he bought so much land when planning the Florida project, was to control the quality and prevent what happened in Anaheim, happening to the Florida project. Some people don't know that there wasn't any Disney owned hotels in that area in until the late 1980's when the Disney corporation finally purchased the Disneyland Hotel. Really the only true Disney designed, planned, and built hotel in that area is the Grand Californian. The other two Disney owned hotels started life as non Disney owned properties. They really had no choice to do what they did and their hands were tied.
A Spanish company, Parques Reunidos, seems a likely suitor as well, tho.
