I don't think it's that hard to know what will hit. The initial script leaks on Lightyear were very poorly received with the bulk of social media thinking it would be a flop if that was the story they planned to tell. Guess what, it was a massive box office flop that probably lost 100+ million dollars.
Also, early talks about Super Mario Movie were very well received by the fans. The head of Nintendo insisted that they stay very true to the games and must respect that Mario was the hero. Guess what, it is the box office hit of the year right now. They are already talking about spin offs and such.