Disney at the Oscars: 2019!

Discussion in 'Disney Movies, Books, TV and Music' started by Luxurious_Lumiere, Sep 17, 2018.

  1. Luxurious_Lumiere

    Luxurious_Lumiere Earning My Ears

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    Messages:
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    Just as I did last year, I'm compiling a list of Disney's films released this past year (2018) and keeping track of how they might perform at the Academy Awards in February. I cover awards races, including the Oscars, for an entertainment site. And I love combining my nerdiness for the arts with my nerdiness for Disney!

    I've listed each films' category chances with "Good Odds" (in serious contention, likely to be nominated), "On the Bubble" (could go either way depending on how the season plays out), or "Long Shot" (there is a campaign for the category, but chances are currently slim). These are based on my current read of the industry, film performance, and knowledge of awards campaigns. This first list/post will be updated throughout Oscar season to reflect the current state of the race, and I'll continue to post some Disney/Oscar news as well.

    Without further ado, the films!

    ANT-MAN AND THE WASP
    LONG SHOT:
    Visual Effects
    Sound Editing

    AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR
    GOOD ODDS:
    Visual Effects

    ON THE BUBBLE:
    Sound Editing
    Sound Mixing

    BAO
    GOOD ODDS:
    Animated Short Film

    BLACK PANTHER
    GOOD ODDS:
    Costume Design
    Production Design
    Makeup/Hairstyling
    Sound Editing
    Visual Effects

    ON THE BUBBLE:
    Best Picture
    Sound Mixing
    Score
    Original Song
    Director (Ryan Coogler)

    LONG SHOT:
    Lead Actor (Chadwick Boseman)
    Supporting Actor (Michael B. Jordan)
    Supporting Actress (Danai Gurira)
    Film Editing
    Cinematography

    CHRISTOPHER ROBIN
    LONG SHOT:
    Score (Jon Brion)
    Visual Effects

    INCREDIBLES 2
    GOOD ODDS:
    Animated Feature

    ON THE BUBBLE:
    Sound Editing
    Sound Mixing
    Score

    LONG SHOT:
    Best Picture
    Adapted Screenplay

    MARY POPPINS RETURNS
    GOOD ODDS:
    Original Song
    Score
    Costume Design
    Sound Mixing

    ON THE BUBBLE:
    Production Design
    Lead Actress (Emily Blunt)

    LONG SHOT:
    Best Picture
    Supporting Actor (Lin-Manuel Miranda)
    Supporting Actress (Meryl Streep)
    Adapted Screenplay
    Makeup/Hairstyling

    THE NUTCRACKER AND THE FOUR REALMS
    GOOD ODDS:
    Costume Design

    ON THE BUBBLE:
    Makeup/Hairstyling
    Production Design

    LONG SHOT:
    Score

    RALPH BREAKS THE INTERNET
    GOOD ODDS:
    Animated Feature

    SOLO: A STAR WARS STORY
    GOOD ODDS:
    Sound Editing

    ON THE BUBBLE:
    Production Design
    Sound Mixing
    Visual Effects

    LONG SHOT:
    Costume Design

    A WRINKLE IN TIME
    ON THE BUBBLE:
    Makeup/Hairstyling
    Costume Design

    LONG SHOT:
    Original Song
    Visual Effects
     
  2. Luxurious_Lumiere

    Luxurious_Lumiere Earning My Ears

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    As we get underway with awards season, Disney looks to focus on two main contenders as their big Oscar players: "Black Panther" and "Mary Poppins Returns"

    "Black Panther" was a critical and popular smash, and conversation around the film has continued despite its early release. Disney is launching a massive awards campaign for the film in hope to become the first true superhero film to garner a Best Picture nomination. It's too soon to tell if that bid will be successful, but the film looks like it will finally land Marvel in the design categories (Marvel films have previously been contained to the Visual Effects and Sound categories). If the critics push the film to the top with their precursor awards, and the film becomes a design/craft category juggernaut, Ryan Coogler could find himself in the heavily competitive Best Director competition. The main struggle for the film will be acting nominations (Heath Ledger remains the only actor to score a nomination, and win, for a superhero film). Their best bet will be Michael B. Jordan (Kilmonger) for Supporting Actor, though there will be fierce competition from more Oscar -friendly performances for those coveted five slots.

    Early industry world is the Disney brass is over the moon with how "Mary Poppins Returns" has turned out. The confidence in the film is leading to a big awards push. It should easily find itself up for the Score and Song categories, as music is an essential piece of the film (Broadway vets Marc Shaiman and Scott Wittman wrote the tunes). But rumor suggests that Disney's bigger plan is a Lead Actress nomination for Emily Blunt. Despite critically acclaimed performances, Blunt has never been nominated for an Oscar (though she got very close with the likes of "Young Victoria" and "Into the Woods"). Disney will play up the role's the awards history in their campaign (Julie Andrews won for the original, her first Oscar nomination). This will be a tough category to crack. 1.) Blunt will automatically face comparisons to Andrews 2.) Disney hasn't produced an acting nomination since "Into the Woods" in 2014 (for Meryl Streep, a performer most of voters have no problem name checking) 3.) There are a solid 15 women who are highly competitive for Lead Actress. Glenn Close ("The Wife") is already considered a lock, but then you have major plays from Lady Gaga, Olivia Colman, Melissa McCarthy, Nicole Kidman, Viola Davis, Kiki Layne, Saoirse Ronan, Toni Collette, Elsie Fisher, and Kiera Knightley. The Golden Globes could provide a path to victory (The Globes frequently nominate Blunt, and I imagine the Comedy/Musical Actress category will come down to Blunt vs. Gaga). But if they really want her in the mix, Disney will need to screen the movie for SAG voters (their nominating process closes 12/9) to start building momentum with the acting branch of the academy. Fingers crossed for Blunt's first Oscar nom!
     
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  4. old lady

    old lady DIS Veteran

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    I hope they do nominate that wonderful actress from Black Panther since there are so few actress roles out there.
     
  5. BrianL

    BrianL Doom Buggy Driver

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    I don't really get this push for Black Panther as Best Picture. I mean, really? It was good, but it wasn't even the best Marvel movie of the year. Infinity War had more pathos and more serious subject matter. I'd almost want to give a nod to Josh Brolin for the emotion he brought to Thanos, and that was without even seeing his face! I get why they want to include some "popular films" but it's not really necessary. Popular films win the best kind of award: $$$$!
     
  6. dwheaton

    dwheaton DIS Veteran

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    I'm hopeful that Black Panther will receive some attention at the Oscars. I enjoyed it more than Infinity War because it didn't feel so inevitable. Both are achievements in different ways. I'd be okay with seeing Black Panther nominated for Best Picture. As far as acting, the big one would be Michael B. Jordan as Killmonger if any will have a chance. We sometimes see villains from action films in that category (i.e., Heath Ledger in The Dark Knight).

    Sadly, I'm thinking the most likely place where the films will clean up is sound and visual effects. I agree that The Incredibles 2 has a great chance as Animated Film.
     
  7. BrianL

    BrianL Doom Buggy Driver

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    Based on the new Mary Poppins trailer, that thing is almost certain to get some nods. Original Song category better look out!
     

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