Disney at the Oscars: 2019!

Discussion in 'Disney Movies, Books, TV and Music' started by Luxurious_Lumiere, Sep 17, 2018.

  1. Luxurious_Lumiere

    Luxurious_Lumiere Earning My Ears

    Joined:
    Oct 6, 2017
    Messages:
    65
    Just as I did last year, I'm compiling a list of Disney's films released this past year (2018) and keeping track of how they might perform at the Academy Awards in February. I cover awards races, including the Oscars, for an entertainment site. And I love combining my nerdiness for the arts with my nerdiness for Disney!

    I've listed each films' category chances with "Good Odds" (in serious contention, likely to be nominated), "On the Bubble" (could go either way depending on how the season plays out), or "Long Shot" (there is a campaign for the category, but chances are currently slim). These are based on my current read of the industry, film performance, and knowledge of awards campaigns. This first list/post will be updated throughout Oscar season to reflect the current state of the race, and I'll continue to post some Disney/Oscar news as well.

    Without further ado, the films!

    (updated odds: 1/4/2019)

    ANT-MAN AND THE WASP
    LONG SHOT:
    Visual Effects
    Sound Editing

    AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR
    GOOD ODDS:
    Visual Effects

    LONG SHOT:
    Score (Alan Silvestri)
    Sound Editing
    Sound Mixing

    BAO
    GOOD ODDS:
    Animated Short Film

    BLACK PANTHER
    GOOD ODDS:
    Best Picture
    Costume Design
    Production Design
    Makeup/Hairstyling
    Sound Editing
    Sound Mixing
    Score
    Original Song ('All the Stars')
    Visual Effects

    ON THE BUBBLE:
    Director (Ryan Coogler)
    Cinematography
    Film Editing
    Adapted Screenplay

    LONG SHOT:
    Lead Actor (Chadwick Boseman)
    Supporting Actor (Michael B. Jordan)
    Supporting Actress (Danai Gurira)

    CHRISTOPHER ROBIN
    LONG SHOT:
    Visual Effects

    INCREDIBLES 2
    GOOD ODDS:
    Animated Feature

    ON THE BUBBLE:
    Sound Editing
    Sound Mixing

    LONG SHOT:
    Adapted Screenplay

    MARY POPPINS RETURNS
    GOOD ODDS:
    Lead Actress (Emily Blunt)
    Original Song ('The Place Where Lost Things Go')
    Score
    Costume Design
    Production Design
    Visual Effects

    ON THE BUBBLE:
    Best Picture
    Sound Mixing
    Original Song ('Trip a Little Light Fantastic')

    LONG SHOT:
    Lead Actor (Lin-Manuel Miranda)
    Supporting Actress (Meryl Streep)
    Director (Rob Marshall)
    Adapted Screenplay
    Sound Editing

    THE NUTCRACKER AND THE FOUR REALMS
    ON THE BUBBLE:
    Costume Design

    LONG SHOT:
    Production Design

    RALPH BREAKS THE INTERNET
    GOOD ODDS:
    Animated Feature

    ON THE BUBBLE:
    Original Song ('A Place Called Slaughter Race')

    SOLO: A STAR WARS STORY
    GOOD ODDS:
    Visual Effects

    ON THE BUBBLE:

    Production Design
    Sound Mixing
    Sound Editing

    LONG SHOT:
    Costume Design

    A WRINKLE IN TIME
    LONG SHOT:
    Costume Design
     
    Last edited: Jan 8, 2019
  2. Luxurious_Lumiere

    Luxurious_Lumiere Earning My Ears

    Joined:
    Oct 6, 2017
    Messages:
    65
    As we get underway with awards season, Disney looks to focus on two main contenders as their big Oscar players: "Black Panther" and "Mary Poppins Returns"

    "Black Panther" was a critical and popular smash, and conversation around the film has continued despite its early release. Disney is launching a massive awards campaign for the film in hope to become the first true superhero film to garner a Best Picture nomination. It's too soon to tell if that bid will be successful, but the film looks like it will finally land Marvel in the design categories (Marvel films have previously been contained to the Visual Effects and Sound categories). If the critics push the film to the top with their precursor awards, and the film becomes a design/craft category juggernaut, Ryan Coogler could find himself in the heavily competitive Best Director competition. The main struggle for the film will be acting nominations (Heath Ledger remains the only actor to score a nomination, and win, for a superhero film). Their best bet will be Michael B. Jordan (Kilmonger) for Supporting Actor, though there will be fierce competition from more Oscar -friendly performances for those coveted five slots.

    Early industry world is the Disney brass is over the moon with how "Mary Poppins Returns" has turned out. The confidence in the film is leading to a big awards push. It should easily find itself up for the Score and Song categories, as music is an essential piece of the film (Broadway vets Marc Shaiman and Scott Wittman wrote the tunes). But rumor suggests that Disney's bigger plan is a Lead Actress nomination for Emily Blunt. Despite critically acclaimed performances, Blunt has never been nominated for an Oscar (though she got very close with the likes of "Young Victoria" and "Into the Woods"). Disney will play up the role's the awards history in their campaign (Julie Andrews won for the original, her first Oscar nomination). This will be a tough category to crack. 1.) Blunt will automatically face comparisons to Andrews 2.) Disney hasn't produced an acting nomination since "Into the Woods" in 2014 (for Meryl Streep, a performer most of voters have no problem name checking) 3.) There are a solid 15 women who are highly competitive for Lead Actress. Glenn Close ("The Wife") is already considered a lock, but then you have major plays from Lady Gaga, Olivia Colman, Melissa McCarthy, Nicole Kidman, Viola Davis, Kiki Layne, Saoirse Ronan, Toni Collette, Elsie Fisher, and Kiera Knightley. The Golden Globes could provide a path to victory (The Globes frequently nominate Blunt, and I imagine the Comedy/Musical Actress category will come down to Blunt vs. Gaga). But if they really want her in the mix, Disney will need to screen the movie for SAG voters (their nominating process closes 12/9) to start building momentum with the acting branch of the academy. Fingers crossed for Blunt's first Oscar nom!
     
  3. Avatar

    Advertisement


  4. old lady

    old lady DIS Veteran

    Joined:
    Mar 15, 2007
    Messages:
    2,001
    I hope they do nominate that wonderful actress from Black Panther since there are so few actress roles out there.
     
  5. BrianL

    BrianL Doom Buggy Driver

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2013
    Messages:
    8,567
    I don't really get this push for Black Panther as Best Picture. I mean, really? It was good, but it wasn't even the best Marvel movie of the year. Infinity War had more pathos and more serious subject matter. I'd almost want to give a nod to Josh Brolin for the emotion he brought to Thanos, and that was without even seeing his face! I get why they want to include some "popular films" but it's not really necessary. Popular films win the best kind of award: $$$$!
     
  6. dwheaton

    dwheaton DIS Veteran

    Joined:
    Dec 13, 2006
    Messages:
    677
    I'm hopeful that Black Panther will receive some attention at the Oscars. I enjoyed it more than Infinity War because it didn't feel so inevitable. Both are achievements in different ways. I'd be okay with seeing Black Panther nominated for Best Picture. As far as acting, the big one would be Michael B. Jordan as Killmonger if any will have a chance. We sometimes see villains from action films in that category (i.e., Heath Ledger in The Dark Knight).

    Sadly, I'm thinking the most likely place where the films will clean up is sound and visual effects. I agree that The Incredibles 2 has a great chance as Animated Film.
     
  7. BrianL

    BrianL Doom Buggy Driver

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2013
    Messages:
    8,567
    Based on the new Mary Poppins trailer, that thing is almost certain to get some nods. Original Song category better look out!
     
  8. Luxurious_Lumiere

    Luxurious_Lumiere Earning My Ears

    Joined:
    Oct 6, 2017
    Messages:
    65
    I have been swamped with a busy holiday and Oscar season, but wanted to post in here again for anyone interested in awards season analysis.

    The Golden Globe and SAG nominations have been unveiled, and Disney is poised for perhaps its biggest Oscar year in a long while. Their two dominant films in the awards race are Black Panther and Mary Poppins Returns, both of which have legitimate shots at Best Picture nominations.

    Mary Poppins Returns is surging right now, at the perfect time for awards voting. It was a hit with Globe voters who nominated it for Comedy/Musical Picture, Comedy/Musical Actress (Emily Blunt), Comedy/Musical Actor (Lin-Manuel Miranda) and Best Score. Some prognosticators thought it could just be a fluke because the Globes have a penchant for musicals, but Disney has launched a robust campaign for Blunt. She then showed up with double SAG nominations: Lead for Mary Poppins and Supporting for A Quiet Place. She also netted a nomination from the Critics Choice Awards, where the film itself landed in Best Picture. The National Board of Review also named it one of the top 10 films of the year.

    I'm currently predicting it for Best Picture, but there is a chance it is just edged out in the final voting. Why? Well its hard to see it landing in Director or Adapted Screenplay unless the race shifts considerably over the next couple weeks. Those are two important groups of voters to win over. But it seems like the actors support it (the largest voting branch in the Academy), and it will do well in the design categories. Emily Blunt definitely looks poised for her first ever Oscar nomination. So while it is vulnerable as a Best Picture contender, it is currently showing up everywhere it needs to. And the film's sense of nostalgia and its "feel good" nature has viewers in love. Its a movie they will feel good about casting a vote for.

    Black Panther is performing remarkably as well. The Globes nominated it for Drama Picture, along with Score and Song. It too has made the NBR top ten list and the AFI top ten list, and a Best Picture nomination from Critics Choice. And though it didn't score any individual acting nominations at SAG, it was named as one of the five Best Ensemble nominees. The category is sort of the actor's version of Best Picture. Its an important category because 99% of the time, a movie needs a SAG Ensemble nomination to win Best Picture. (Only two films in the history of SAG have broken this stat: Braveheart and last year's The Shape of Water).

    The SAG Ensemble nominees this year are Black Panther, BlackKklansman, Bohemian Rhapsody, Crazy Rich Asians, and A Star is Born. Bohemain Rhapsody and Crazy Rich Asians are seen as BP longshots. So stats wise, that positions the Oscar Best Picture race as a battle between frontrunner A Star is Born, Black Panther and Blackkklansman. I think the only two films that could break the stat and win Best Pic without the ensemble nom are Roma (a foreign film with first time and no name actors. It was never going to do well with SAG anyway, but is already seen as a cinematic masterpiece) and The Favourite (could ultimately be too weird for the win, but it landed 3 individual SAG noms for its actresses. That is missed ensemble was a huge shock).

    What could position Black Panther as a Best Picture winner? Lookout for the DGA (directors guild) nominations. Ryan Coogler hasnt been nominated at the Globes (a huge miss) or the Critics Choice. He will need the guild to come out and support him. That would position him similar to George Miller in the year of Mad Max Fury Road: that film was the leader of the below-the-line awards (design, sound, effects, etc) and Miller was recognized with a nomination for bringing all those pieces together. If Disney cant get Coogler nominated for director, I have a hard time seeing Black Panther taking down A Star is Born. A film unlikely to net any acting noms or writing nom needs its director present to have a fighting chance.

    For the record, here are my current Best Picture Rankings:

    1. A Star is Born
    2. BlackKklansman
    3. Roma
    4. The Favourite
    5. Black Panther
    6. Vice
    7. Green Book
    8. Mary Poppins Returns
    9. If Beale Street Could Talk
    10. First Reformed

    Possibilities/Next in line:

    11. First Man
    12. Bohemian Rhapsody
    13. A Quiet Place
    14. Eighth Grade
    15. Can You Ever Forgive Me?
    16. Leave No Trace
    17. Crazy Rich Asians
    18. Boy Erased
    19. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
    20. At Eternity's Gate

    Elsewhere for Disney: Incredibles 2 and Ralph Breaks the Internet are showing up everywhere and look solid for nominations in Animated Feature (though I do worry that with the Academys dislike of sequels, they could split support if theyre both nominated. That would pave the way for something like Isle of Dogs or Spiderman Into the Spider-verse to win in an upset).

    Disney has also decided to only actively campaign Avengers: Infinity War for Visual Effects, so that it wont steal focus from Black Panther in the sound and design categories. I think its a worthy sound nominee, but I only expect it to show up in Visual Effects now.
     
    pigletliz likes this.
  9. edistasiofa09

    edistasiofa09 Earning My Ears

    Joined:
    Dec 13, 2018
    Messages:
    10
    It also helps the oscars are shown on their own network and they buy the oscar nominations every year
     
  10. Luxurious_Lumiere

    Luxurious_Lumiere Earning My Ears

    Joined:
    Oct 6, 2017
    Messages:
    65
    Disney doesn't buy Oscar nominations. To think so is to fundamentally misunderstand the process. Disney has actually done quite poorly at recent Oscars compared to other major studios. The last time they had a Best Picture nominee was in 2010 with Toy Story 3. They had Up in Best Picture the year before, but then you'd have to go all the way back to Beauty and the Beast to find another Disney BP nom. If they're "buying" nominations, then theyre quite terrible at it. The net work also has nothing to do with what nominations or wins are handed out. Those are decided on by Academy voters, not ABC employees.

    The opposite of what you suggest is actually happening. Disney hasnt been in the major Oscar race in years because they havent been playing the Oscar game much at all in recent years. They aren't putting in nearly as much time and money into Awards Campaigns as other studios. This year is different, they are campaigning in major ways that we havent seen in years. That's why they have two bona fide contenders in Black Panther and Mary Poppins Returns.
     
  11. edistasiofa09

    edistasiofa09 Earning My Ears

    Joined:
    Dec 13, 2018
    Messages:
    10
    No they just have sjws. Campaigning for them
     
  12. Luxurious_Lumiere

    Luxurious_Lumiere Earning My Ears

    Joined:
    Oct 6, 2017
    Messages:
    65
    ...cool well thought out reply. Makes no sense.

    For those that want to have real discussion and are interested, the Academy announced shortlists for 9 different categories. Disney performed very well.

    Black Panther is shortlisted for Score, Makeup/Hairstyling, Visual Effects, and Original Song.
    Mary Poppins Returns is shortlisted for Score, Visual Effects, and Original Song (x2).
    Avengers: Infinity War is shortlisted for Visual Effects and Score.
    Christopher Robbin is shortlisted for Visual Effects.
    Ant-Man and the Wasp is shortlisted for Visual Effects.
    Solo is shortlisted for Visual Effects.
    Ralph Breaks the Internet is shortlisted for Original Song.
    Bao is shortlisted for Animated Short.

    Several categories create these sort of "bakeoff" shortlists to whittle down contenders before nominations. For some, the next step is a presentation or screening for members of the relevant branch. For instance, the Visual Effects shortlist contenders will create a visual effects reel from their film, with the team leading a presentation about the work. The visual effects branch of the academy watches all the presentations and then votes for their desired nominees. In this particular category, there were some shocking omissions (most notably, Mortal Engines, Mission Impossible Fallout, and Aquaman). So it is feasable that Disney films could net 3-4 nominees in that category. I'd say Black Panther and Avengers Infinity War are pretty locked. But Mary Poppins and Solo now have legitimate shots.

    The biggest surprise to me was Alan Silverstri's score for Avenger's Infinity War appearing as a finalist for Score. As mentioned before, Disney chose only to actively campaign the film in Visual Effects. But the music branch of the academy loves to reward familiar names, and Silvestri is a well known composer and previous Oscar nominee for Forrest Gump and Polar Express. I don't ultimately see him making the final five nominees, but it was a nice surprise.

    Besides Silvestri, which ones wont ultimately make the cut? I can't see Christopher Robbin making it into Visual Effects (the film didnt have much staying power, the effects are nothing we havent seen before) and ditto Ant-Man and the Wasp (they ultimately snubbed the first one, so it stands to reason theyll do the same with the sequel). The Ralph song "A Place Called Slaughter Race" is lots of fun, but it will likely be shoved out to make room for songs from A Star is Born, Mary Poppins (which could have 2 songs nominated), Black Panther, and RBG.

    Are you happy or mad about any of the inclusions/omissions? The announcements are certainly a bad sign for Nutcracker and Wrinkle in Time fans, neither of which are likely to score nominations (outside maybe surprise Costume Design or Production Design bids...but people dont seem to be fans of these two films). Odds in the first post have been updated.

    For the record, the 9 categories that announced shortlists are: Visual Effects, Makeup/Hairstyling, Score, Original Song, Foreign Language Film, Documentary Feature, Documentary Short Subject, Live Action Short Subject, and Animated Short Subject.
     
    pigletliz likes this.
  13. BrianL

    BrianL Doom Buggy Driver

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2013
    Messages:
    8,567
    Hey, Lumiere, I actually like this thread, but I am not very savvy about the process. I do find it educational though so don't let the silence dissuade you. I just don't know that I could to add much to a discussion.

    I do hope Mary Poppins gets some love at the Oscars though - well, that is I hope it deserves to - I'll find out tomorrow night!
     
  14. Luxurious_Lumiere

    Luxurious_Lumiere Earning My Ears

    Joined:
    Oct 6, 2017
    Messages:
    65
    Glad you enjoy reading this Brian =)
    I was very happy with how Mary Poppins turned out. Watching it feels like getting a visit from an old beloved friend. I hope you enjoy it!
     
    BrianL likes this.
  15. Luxurious_Lumiere

    Luxurious_Lumiere Earning My Ears

    Joined:
    Oct 6, 2017
    Messages:
    65
    And if anyone is curious, here are the full shortlists (for sake of brevity I only included the one's Disney films are listed in)

    Makeup and Hairstyling
    “Black Panther”
    “Bohemian Rhapsody”
    “Border”
    “Mary Queen of Scots”
    “Stan & Ollie”
    “Suspiria”
    “Vice”

    (^for reasons unknown, this category still only lists 3 nominees instead of the usual 5)

    Original Score
    “Annihilation”
    “Avengers: Infinity War”
    “The Ballad of Buster Scruggs”
    “Black Panther”
    “BlacKkKlansman”
    “Crazy Rich Asians”
    “The Death of Stalin”
    “Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald”
    “First Man”
    “If Beale Street Could Talk”
    “Isle of Dogs”
    “Mary Poppins Returns”
    “A Quiet Place”
    “Ready Player One”
    “Vice”

    Original Song
    “When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings” from “The Ballad of Buster Scruggs”
    “Treasure” from “Beautiful Boy”
    “All The Stars” from “Black Panther”
    “Revelation” from “Boy Erased”
    “Girl In The Movies” from “Dumplin’”
    “We Won’t Move” from “The Hate U Give”
    “The Place Where Lost Things Go” from “Mary Poppins Returns”
    “Trip A Little Light Fantastic” from “Mary Poppins Returns”
    “Keep Reachin’” from “Quincy”
    “I’ll Fight” from “RBG”
    “A Place Called Slaughter Race” from “Ralph Breaks the Internet”
    “OYAHYTT” from “Sorry to Bother You”
    “Shallow” from “A Star Is Born”
    “Suspirium” from “Suspiria”
    “The Big Unknown” from “Widows”

    Animated Short Film
    “Age of Sail”
    “Animal Behaviour”
    “Bao”
    “Bilby”
    “Bird Karma”
    “Late Afternoon”
    “Lost & Found”
    “One Small Step”
    “Pépé le Morse”
    “Weekends”

    Visual Effects
    “Ant-Man and the Wasp”
    “Avengers: Infinity War”
    “Black Panther”
    “Christopher Robin”
    “First Man”
    “Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom”
    “Mary Poppins Returns”
    “Ready Player One”
    “Solo: A Star Wars Story”
    “Welcome to Marwen”
     
    pigletliz likes this.
  16. old lady

    old lady DIS Veteran

    Joined:
    Mar 15, 2007
    Messages:
    2,001
    Two words. Black Panther.
     
  17. karly05

    karly05 DIS Veteran - "I found the Snipe!"

    Joined:
    Mar 7, 2009
    Messages:
    3,365
    Dear Academy: Please do NOT give Disney or Pixar the Animated Feature award this year. Do not reward them for two solid years of their major animated releases being nothing but sequels. (Incredibles 2 and Ralph 2 this year; TS4 and Frozen 2 next year.)

    Six months before Coco opened, I had no idea that I would fall totally in love with it and it would be a close 2nd to Up (another amazing, unexpected surprise) as my favorite Pixar movie. Six months before Zootopia opened, I'm not sure I even knew it existed, and it was another major "life altering multiple trips to the theatre" experience. I miss that "joy of the new" experience when I go to a Disney or Pixar film.
     
    kbmartin likes this.
  18. pigletliz

    pigletliz DIS Veteran

    Joined:
    Apr 28, 2001
    Messages:
    771
    Thanks so much for this detailed information! I am actually excited this year because there are so many good movies and performances, especially best actress.
     
    Luxurious_Lumiere likes this.
  19. Luxurious_Lumiere

    Luxurious_Lumiere Earning My Ears

    Joined:
    Oct 6, 2017
    Messages:
    65
    @karly05 Most pundits have Incredibles 2 out front for Animated Feature...but I think the stage is set for a massive upset in that category.

    Since the category's inception in 2001, Toy Story 3 remains the only sequel to ever win. And that was a major event, a film with multiple nominations including a rare animated film in Best Picture. The voters of the animated branch are generally averse to sequels. Other that TS3 the other sequels nominated are: Shrek 2 (riding a wave of support after Shrek won the inaugural animated feature Oscar), Kung Fu Panda 2, Despicable Me 2, and How to Train Your Dragon 2. I suppose you could also count Puss in Boots, though its technically a spinoff rather than a sequel.

    So toy Story 3 is the ONLY Disney or Pixar sequel to ever contend in this category. This year was a weaker one for animated films, so I suspect both Incredibles 2 and Ralph Breaks the Internet get nominated. BUT they could split support of the voters and allow something else to come up the middle for the win. Some argue that Incredibles 2 didnt change the formula enough from the first film, and Ralph just doesnt appeal to the Academy's main demographic well enough (they chose Brave over the first Wreck it Ralph, so its unlikely they will be won over by the second installment.

    This makes room for Isle of Dogs (helmed by Academy favorite Wes Anderson. This movie is also likely to show up in Score thanks to Alxandre Desplat) or Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (a truly original superhero film which will lie in stark contrast to the familiarity of Incredibles 2. It also has 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and is peaking with buzz right when it needs to during awards season). Perhaps Im over thinking an easy category, but I can definitely see Spider-Man overtaking the Parr family.
     
  20. Luxurious_Lumiere

    Luxurious_Lumiere Earning My Ears

    Joined:
    Oct 6, 2017
    Messages:
    65
    The Producers Guild of America (PGA) announced their nominations today! This guild acts as an important precursor to the Oscars because they vote on a winner using the same preferential ballot system as the Academy. There is also crossover between voting members of the guild and Academy.

    The nominations:

    Picture
    Black Panther
    BlacKkKlansman
    Bohemian Rhapsody
    Crazy Rich Asians
    The Favourite
    Green Book
    A Quiet Place
    Roma
    A Star is Born
    Vice

    Animated Picture
    Dr. Seuss' The Grinch
    Incredibles 2
    Isle of Dogs
    Ralph Breaks the Internet
    Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse


    So for us Disney folk, this is great news for Black Panther. It has shown up absolutely everywhere it needs to: NBR top 10, AFI top 10, SAG Ensemble, Golden Globes, and now PGA. I think it is positioned as one of 4 films that can actually win Best Picture: Black Panther, BlacKkKlansman, Roma, and A Star is Born. The test for Black Panther will be getting Ryan Coogler a nomination at the upcoming Directors Guild awards. This is a major contender and I predict Black Panther will be one of the top nomination getters at the Oscars.

    On the flipside, Mary Poppins Returns missing out here is a huge deal and knocks it down a peg. The producers are a branch that really should have backed this film, but apparently it didnt score high enough. So despite also showing up at NBR, AFI, and the Globes, its possible not enough voters are listing this as their number one choice. You can find many detailed articles on the convoluted math of the Oscar Best Picture category. But basically, the preferential ballot system rewards passion. That's because films need to pass a threshold of number one votes to advance in the vote tallying. So when you are looking for Best Picture nominees, you are looking for films where at least 330 voters are going to choose that film as their #1 for the year (the number is roughly the number of academy members divided by 25). Is Mary Poppins just not inspiring that much passion? Or perhaps its really being lifted up by the acting and design branches, rathre than the producers who prefer films that made a bigger dent at the box office.

    As for animated film, the nominees are mostly what was expected. I think the Academy will swap out The Grinch for Mirai (a Japanese film that's much to indie and artsy for the PGA) or Early Man (which got mediocre reviews but is the same creators as Wallace and Gromit, and the Academy adores them).

    In most years, the PGA nominees predict 7-8 of the eventual Oscar best picture nominees. Art house fare often fails to register with the PGA, so there is still some hope for Barry Jenkins' If Beale Street Could Talk, but it is in serious jeopardy after missing here and with SAG. Also keep in mind that the Oscar voting procedure makes it improbable (but not impossible) to have 10 best picture nominees (more convoluted math I dont have the space to bore you with). So we are probably looking at 8-9 Best Picture nominees. So you have to look at which couple PGA noms are likely to fall out, and which artsy/indie/smaller films the Academy will choose instead. I'd say there are 7 locked for nomination, with the last 2-3 slots up for grabs.

    My current Best Picture prediction lineups after this guild announcement:

    1. A Star is Born
    2. BlacKkKlansman
    3. Black Panther
    4. Roma
    5. The Favourite
    6. Green Book
    7. Vice
    8. Bohemian Rhapsody
    9. If Beale Street Could Talk
    10. Mary Poppins Returns

    next in line:
    11. First Reformed
    12. A Quiet Place
    13. Eighth Grade
    14. Crazy Rich Asians
    15. First Man
    16. Can You Ever Forgive Me?
    17. Leave No Trace
    18. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
    19. Mary Queen of Scots
    20. Widows
     
  21. pigletliz

    pigletliz DIS Veteran

    Joined:
    Apr 28, 2001
    Messages:
    771
    As much as I loved Incredibles 2, I thought that Spider-Man was a MUCH better movie. The Incredibles 2 story line was predictable and the best interaction was between Edna and Jack-Jack.
     

Share This Page