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WAIT -
Was Beach Club only a 40 year Life of Contract ?? :earboy2:
If so, I stand corrected, but would still think that after 2022, the resale price would depreciate some ??
Yes, OKW was the first DVC and originally had a 50-year contract, to 2042. The ones that came after - HHI, VB, BWV, VWL (now BRV), and BCV all expire in 2042 as well. SSR was the first DVC after OKW to have a 50-year contract span from its inception.

BTW, it seems that for the last five or even ten years, people have been expecting BWV and BCV prices to drop due to short contract length. So far they haven't dropped much. That old adage, location, location, location, may have something to do with it.

PS we paid $62.50 pp in 1997 after incentives. That's roughly $100 pp today. So if we sold now (we're not planning to, at all) we'd make a profit no matter how you look at it.
 
WAIT -
Was Beach Club only a 40 year Life of Contract ?? :earboy2:
If so, I stand corrected, but would still think that after 2022, the resale price would depreciate some ??

I mean in reality why would it though?

Most people front load the value of the contract to the first 10 years. When you account for anyone buying at BCV only staying there it then becomes a math equation as to which is a better deal.

Example:
October 7 nights
Rack Rate: $609/$632/$703 = $4474 for a week ($2684.40 with a 40% discount)
Maintenance Fees: 114 (with MFs) = $804.84
Difference = $1,879.56
Additional discount (on top of 40%) I would want for buying DVC of 25% = $1409.67
Point Cost Per Year = $12.3655
20 years = $247.31/point
10 years = $123.65/point

Thing is just between last year and this year that same week in October for cash went up 6.3% in cost from 4207 to 4474 flip side MFs only went up 3.6%. So when I look down the road in I will be saving money.

You can go way more in depth but I think this is fairly easy to show why contracts likely won't start going down until around that 10 year mark. Hotel prices keep going up and my math is VERY generous when talking about what essentially is a 55% discount off rake rate (40% and then another 25%).
 
I’ll just put out here that FWs 1-3, 35-45,47-50 are all only 118 points at CCV in a studio.
Week 1: runDisney Marathon
Week 43: Halloween about 2/3 of the time
Week 44: runDisney Wine & Dine, Halloween sometimes
Week 47: Thanksgiving most years
Weeks 48-50: Christmas holidays (week after Thanksgiving most years to week before Christmas most years)


To add to this: for the runDisney weekends you can get a special event FW at CCV that will allow you to do wed-wed or even less days than 7
 
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This definitely makes me happy that I pulled the trigger on the summer incentives!


Me three!

Reading that incentive thread made me realize how good they were. I kept getting the promo emails from Disney, but the value didn't click for me until I saw it in chart form, checked out the previous incentive threads and read everyone's insightful analyses.

Now that I qualify for member level incentives it's still kinda tempting to buy more direct (a FW at Copper Creek) but I think I'll go resale in the future instead.
 


so why didn't you catch that this morning? mea culpa; my two excuses:
  1. I was distracted by the Rise of the Resistance boarding pass process (got em!)
  2. had to get five of us fed, dressed, and driven to Hollywood Studios to make use of said boarding passes
Wow. I admire your dedication to performing these analyses and keeping us informed!
 
Me three!

Reading that incentive thread made me realize how good they were. I kept getting the promo emails from Disney, but the value didn't click for me until I saw it in chart form, checked out the previous incentive threads and read everyone's insightful analyses.

Now that I qualify for member level incentives it's still kinda tempting to buy more direct (a FW at Copper Creek) but I think I'll go resale in the future instead.
If only purchasing during an incentive period allowed us to stay locked into that incentive!
 


Seriously! That would be a great way for Disney to get what they want - repeat direct buyers who don't turn to the darkside resale side.

Just no real good way for them to do that as just the ROFR math wouldn't work.

VGF - $145/point
BLT - $112/point
AKV - $104/point

People in theory could just be buying direct points and flipping them lol.

Maybe they could do it while a resort has not sold out but their goal is to get you to buy as many points as possible all at once. They don't want you buying 100 RIV now, 100 RIV next year, 100 RIV the following year. They want you to buy 300 RIV now and take their financing.
 
Just no real good way for them to do that as just the ROFR math wouldn't work.

VGF - $145/point
BLT - $112/point
AKV - $104/point

People in theory could just be buying direct points and flipping them lol.

Maybe they could do it while a resort has not sold out but their goal is to get you to buy as many points as possible all at once. They don't want you buying 100 RIV now, 100 RIV next year, 100 RIV the following year. They want you to buy 300 RIV now and take their financing.

Of course, but how nice would it be if they allowed you to lock in a price for say 1 year for any add ons of the same amount.
 
Just no real good way for them to do that as just the ROFR math wouldn't work.

VGF - $145/point
BLT - $112/point
AKV - $104/point

People in theory could just be buying direct points and flipping them lol.

Maybe they could do it while a resort has not sold out but their goal is to get you to buy as many points as possible all at once. They don't want you buying 100 RIV now, 100 RIV next year, 100 RIV the following year. They want you to buy 300 RIV now and take their financing.

Of course, but how nice would it be if they allowed you to lock in a price for say 1 year for any add ons of the same amount.

It's nice to dream Lol
 
Just no real good way for them to do that as just the ROFR math wouldn't work.

VGF - $145/point
BLT - $112/point
AKV - $104/point

People in theory could just be buying direct points and flipping them lol.

Maybe they could do it while a resort has not sold out but their goal is to get you to buy as many points as possible all at once. They don't want you buying 100 RIV now, 100 RIV next year, 100 RIV the following year. They want you to buy 300 RIV now and take their financing.

Not necessarily the same buy-in price (like maybe a cruise) but the same buy-in $/point off the current price.

But even that is problematic because it's unfair to, say, early Riviera Burts buyers who would be locked into a higher price than those of us who purchased in summer. What might work is locking into highest $/off that was offered at time of contract *or any time after.* This wouldn't punish people who buy in before a bigger discount. This doesn't mean people are price protected if discounts increase but would allow the large discount for an add-on off what ever the current price is.

Anyway, it's a pipe dream!
 
So I do have an idea which is discounts based on direct points purchased either overall or at that resort for discounts.

So if you bought 150 points you do the discount calculation from 150 points. Add on 50? Then get the 200 point discount on those points.

Some benefit for buying direct more often in that model then.
 
So I do have an idea which is discounts based on direct points purchased either overall or at that resort for discounts.

So if you bought 150 points you do the discount calculation from 150 points. Add on 50? Then get the 200 point discount on those points.

Some benefit for buying direct more often in that model then.
I love this idea! It also helps make that direct purchase more tempting as each purchase gets you closer to qualifying for a higher tier discount.
 
So I do have an idea which is discounts based on direct points purchased either overall or at that resort for discounts.

So if you bought 150 points you do the discount calculation from 150 points. Add on 50? Then get the 200 point discount on those points.

Some benefit for buying direct more often in that model then.
I have another idea.

How about they arbitrarily discount the latest resort, yank those discounts, partially bring them back, pull them again, then jack up prices every year irrespective of macro economic conditions, so people will frantically panic buy with the their guide at the 11th hour?

It’s a winning formula that invariably sells out WDW resorts. Why on God’s green earth would they change that? To benefit owners? I think it’s pretty clear what the current regime thinks of owners.

Any model, like offering summative discounts, that would benefit owners buying in is fantasy.

If the restrictions illustrate anything, it’s that whether or not current, loyal, direct owners are incentivized to buy in is inconsequential to DVD. If that owner doesn’t buy in, there will be 5 more people who will fomo in their place at the right price. And as soon as the parks open, there will be 12 more people to take their place.
 
I think the current incentive for Riviera is pretty decent. I would consider a 200 point contract there and split it into 2 100 point contracts.
If my math is correct, it comes out to $175 pt. That would be a pretty decent amount of points and not that bad of a price. No restrictions and 50 years of vacations. When I bought at VGF it was $165 and I was a little nervous, but I never looked back in over 5 years of being part of DVC.
 
I have another idea.

How about they arbitrarily discount the latest resort, yank those discounts, partially bring them back, pull them again, then jack up prices every year irrespective of macro economic conditions, so people will frantically panic buy with the their guide at the 11th hour?

It’s a winning formula that invariably sells out WDW resorts. Why on God’s green earth would they change that? To benefit owners? I think it’s pretty clear what the current regime thinks of owners.

Any model, like offering summative discounts, that would benefit owners buying in is fantasy.

If the restrictions illustrate anything, it’s that whether or not current, loyal, direct owners are incentivized to buy in is inconsequential to DVD. If that owner doesn’t buy in, there will be 5 more people who will fomo in their place at the right price. And as soon as the parks open, there will be 12 more people to take their place.


Because there is a chance this other model actually sells out the resort faster?

You act like Disney does it the best way and no way to improve it. I would say that is a false claim. Is this better probably not, could aspects be used possibly, who knows.

In theory based on your post they shouldn't offer a previous owner any discount.

In reality they do recognize some of the previous purchase hence why current member incentives start at a lower threshold.

Their pricing model would change for sure though and possibly they remove the direct member pricing all together as an example if they went toward the option I outlined.

All I know in sales is there is always a better way you just are not always aware of it.
 
Because there is a chance this other model actually sells out the resort faster?

You act like Disney does it the best way and no way to improve it. I would say that is a false claim. Is this better probably not, could aspects be used possibly, who knows.

In theory based on your post they shouldn't offer a previous owner any discount.

In reality they do recognize some of the previous purchase hence why current member incentives start at a lower threshold.

Their pricing model would change for sure though and possibly they remove the direct member pricing all together as an example if they went toward the option I outlined.

All I know in sales is there is always a better way you just are not always aware of it.

I will add that the language that is in the document of RIV POS regarding the restrictions specially mentions the option of a future incentive where one purchases to potentially give restricted points access,

So, changes to getting at least resale buyers to purchase has obviously been on the table, so having some level of incentive for direct purchases to lock in incentives seems plausible too.
 
Because there is a chance this other model actually sells out the resort faster?

You act like Disney does it the best way and no way to improve it. I would say that is a false claim. Is this better probably not, could aspects be used possibly, who knows.

In theory based on your post they shouldn't offer a previous owner any discount.

In reality they do recognize some of the previous purchase hence why current member incentives start at a lower threshold.

Their pricing model would change for sure though and possibly they remove the direct member pricing all together as an example if they went toward the option I outlined.

All I know in sales is there is always a better way you just are not always aware of it.
You’ve argued repeatedly that Disney is in no rush to sell out Riviera in the absence of an eminent new resort, but suddenly selling out more quickly is a motivator?

Your point was that crediting owners with previous purchases is a model that may help move product more quickly. But doing so would come at the cost of profit, in favor of those expedited sales. My point is that if that owner doesn’t add on that 50 points at a discounted rate, Disney will still sell those points to another buyer at a higher rate with the added benefit of likely having it financed by way of the Mouse’s generous 10%+ rates.

Your reasoning also presupposes that “the best way” is quicker sales is a greater motivator than profit and I would argue otherwise.

Current member incentives above new member prices are nominal. On 200 points bought at Riviera today, the difference is less than 3%. I have to assume, psychologically that’s been shown to motivate enough adding on to not effect the bottom line materially.

What you’re proposing, cumulative purchase benefits extended long term, removes the motivation for someone buying at the moment to just add on enough to bump into the next tier of discounts. It’s like the customer walking off the car lot; bird in the hand and stuff.

My bigger point is that you and Doberge frame any change as incentivizing current owners to buy more. The current mode already incentivizes the buyer to buy more today. Being allowed to kick the can down the road without consequence falls squarely into the “buyer benefit” column at the expense of Disney getting a sale now, with the added risk of someone having life happen and suddenly realizing, now that they’re no longer in the middle of all the magic, or worse, getting their annual dues bill, that maybe “I’m good for now.”

I’m not saying the current model is “the best way.” I am saying that your proposed model does not benefit Disney’s bottom line. And that framework should be the litmus test for what is an “improvement.”
 

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