We were there mid January, and it was still packed. Originally, the crowds had been forecast to be lower, but they ended up being mostly 9 and 10 days. I think we lucked out and did get one day at a 6. It seemed like a lot of people had your idea to vacation after New Years. We talked to so many people who told us they’d been there since Christmas or since New Years and were finishing up their vacations. Seemed like many people planned for the first two weeks in January thinking it would be less crowded, but that wasn’t the case. It was the most crowded I’ve ever seen Disney. Based on what I saw this year, I think you are going to see Christmas level crowds through at least the first week of January if not through the second as well. Then you head into the Marathon weekend and Martin Luther King Holiday, so I wouldn’t expect crowds to die down at all until after all of that. January is also a tour group time of year as well.
I will say even though the parks were close to capacity, the only real issue we had was trying to physically get around people while walking. You definitely need to plan in extra time to walk from A to B. It was hard to navigate through the crowds, and we were two adults, no
ECV, no wheelchair or stroller to maneuver with. I can only imagine how hard a time those people had it. Despite that, we were able to do everything we wanted to do once. We never waited in any lines, and we found plenty to do to entertain ourselves. We did early entry each morning, booked our 3 FP, used refresh to score additional FP (maybe not the attractions I’d have chosen, but we could usually find something to do), planned long ADRs to get out of the crowds, and mixed in non waiting attractions like shows, street performers, parades, scavenger hunt games, animal viewing, and shopping to fill the gaps if we had free time. It was a fun trip, not my favorite by any means, but it worked out better than I thought for the crowd levels.
Having said all that, I almost wish we had just gone for Christmas instead of waiting a couple of weeks. The decorations were mostly down and none of the special holiday entertainment was being offered anymore, but we had to put up with holiday level crowds anyway. If I’m going to put up with those crowds again, it will be to see all the special holiday stuff.
If January is the only time you have to go, with planning and a little flexibility you can still have a good time and enjoy minimal waits using refresh. You may not be able to do as much as a different time of the year, but you should be able to fit in everything at least once.
If you only picked January because you heard it wasn’t crowded, pick another time. Almost any other time. It’s not hard to get days that are less crowded than 9 and 10.
