Crowd prediction discrepancies

[eliz603]

I know some of you are big easywdw crowd calendar people. We've always had great experiences with Touring Plans.

For our trip the first week of April, the two sites are showing quite different numbers. TP has 4 and 5. Easywdw has 7.

I know it's spring break time. It's also my understanding that a huge chunk of the region had SB the week prior. I expect crowds. That's not the issue.

I just can't get over the difference between the two. Thoughts?

 

[KatieCharlotte]

I'd also love to hear opinions from touring plan experts.

We'll be at MK at the end of that week and, although I want to believe the 4/5, I think 7 will be more accurate. I've never used a touring plan website before, but I have a feeling that easywdw is doing a better job analyzing the various states' spring breaks and the effect on crowds. 4/5 may be more based on past years and the idea that spring breaks are Easter week, like ours used to be. But I may be wrong!

 

[Robo]

I know some of you are big easywdw crowd calendar people. We've always had great experiences with Touring Plans.

For our trip the first week of April, the two sites are showing quite different numbers. TP has 4 and 5. Easywdw has 7.

I know it's spring break time. It's also my understanding that a huge chunk of the region had SB the week prior. I expect crowds. That's not the issue.

I just can't get over the difference between the two. Thoughts?

....easywdw.com vs Touring Plans


This is a very, VERY common situation.
None of the predictor sites is 100% correct.

So, just pick your favorite and go with it.

 

[DividedSky]

I know some of you are big easywdw crowd calendar people. We've always had great experiences with Touring Plans.

For our trip the first week of April, the two sites are showing quite different numbers. TP has 4 and 5. Easywdw has 7.

I know it's spring break time. It's also my understanding that a huge chunk of the region had SB the week prior. I expect crowds. That's not the issue.

I just can't get over the difference between the two. Thoughts?

I have noticed this as well.

ultimately, i find the touring plans website to be so good, I hope they are more accurate as well.

It seems touring plans updates more frequently. They also grade themselves after the fact, which I don't see happening at easyWDW

 

[eliz603]

Alrighty then! I'm sticking with TP since we've used them for years with no significant issues. I've also subscribed to my specific dates to alert me to changes.

 

[Tigerlulu]

We went last year and easywdw was much more accurate than tp--and we got stuck in some crowds b/c we followed tp whereas friends following easywdw at the same time had much lower crowds. Lesson learned!

 

[DividedSky]

We went last year and easywdw was much more accurate than tp--and we got stuck in some crowds b/c we followed tp whereas friends following easywdw at the same time had much lower crowds. Lesson learned!

I'm not sure I am following here. easyWDW doesn't actually help you decide the order to ride rides in a park do they? they recommend which park to visit but I don't see them going in the same detail as touring plans.

 

[eliz603]

We went last year and easywdw was much more accurate than tp--and we got stuck in some crowds b/c we followed tp whereas friends following easywdw at the same time had much lower crowds. Lesson learned!

We don't tour on a plan. Just curious about the overall crowd level predictions.

 

[mesaboy2]

....easywdw.com vs Touring Plans This is a very, VERY common situation. None of the predictor sites is 100% correct. So, just pick your favorite and go with it.

This.

A 2- to 3-point difference from people predicting the future isn't much in my opinion.

 

[eliz603]

No need for snarky. We've already set our dates, and I understand no one can dead on predict the future. I simply wanted to see if there was something I'm missing between the two. There is a big difference between a 4 and a 7 when you drag three young kids around.

 

[mesaboy2]

No need for snarky. We've already set our dates, and I understand no one can dead on predict the future. I simply wanted to see if there was something I'm missing between the two. There is a big difference between a 4 and a 7 when you drag three young kids around.

My point is everyone is mostly guessing. And even when you get two parties in the same park on the same day, if you ask them what the crowds were like, some would say "4" and some would say "7". "Crowded" is such an inexact term that means hugely different things to different people. Go have fun and forget about crowd calendars.

 

[eliz603]

My point is everyone is mostly guessing. And even when you get two parties in the same park on the same day, if you ask them what the crowds were like, some would say "4" and some would say "7". "Crowded" is such an inexact term that means hugely different things to different people. Go have fun and forget about crowd calendars.

It's my understanding that the predictor model numbers do have something behind them - expected wait times. It's not completely relative. Or at least that's the guess behind TP.

I'm just happy to go! I am ready for pixie dust!

 

[HookdonWDW]

Just a thought: If 2,000 people read and follow one touring site, and 1,000 people read and follow another touring site, these people will go to the parks with the lower crowd level predictions. During a busy period, a higher percentage of people are in the parks, thus the "touring plan effect" (TPE) is increased. So, the more popular the site, the more of an impact the TPE could have on crowd level. I think this can account of a 1 or 2 point crowd difference.

 

[mesaboy2]

It's my understanding that the predictor model numbers do have something behind them - expected wait times. It's not completely relative. Or at least that's the guess behind TP. I'm just happy to go! I am ready for pixie dust!

Yes, they do, just like meteorologists do.

You've already put in more research than 98% of the people at WDW with you--you will be fine.

 

[Lauree]

My children and I were at WDW from January 1-5. I used touring plans and TGM to plan/make decisions. The best advice ever is simply to arrive early (about 30 min prior to opening) and get to the most popular/slowest loading rides first. I also avoid EMH parks. We were able to ride Test Track 3 times on New Years day and we only had FP for one time. According to touring plans, there just wasn't a good day to go to MK during my trip. However, we went on 1/3 (friday) and until about 10:00 am we walked on or had very low wait times. We rode big thunder mtn. twice w/out FP and probably waited no more than 30 minutes total. Around 11:00 wait times were very long. We had lunch about that time and after finishing lunch MK was incredibly crowded. We went back to our resort for a nap/break and felt ok about leaving because our must-dos were done and some of them more than once. Have a great trip!

 

[DisneyMomLJ]

I used Touring Plans to choose our parks and a lot of our rides during a record level (for that week) crowd last year during spring break. Friends that are very frequent visitors (Floridians) came along and they kept remarking, "I can't believe it's not crowded. I can't believe how short these lines are." I just laughed as I pulled up the line times on my phone and continued to use the plans. I was planning my upcoming trip the same way when I saw that easywdw was way different than TP for the same days, recommending different parks etc. I thought about it, but in the end decided to stick with TP. Their science is better and they've never steered me wrong!

 

[Novakm]

I think they are measuring different things. I used TP. The days with the Christmas party were supposed to be low crowd days, but it was packed! I read thier site a little closer and found out why it was so packed on a day they said was low crowds.

They are not predicting crowds at TP, they are predicting wait times. During the Christmas party, wait times were low, but the park was so crowded I could not move!

I wonder if Easy is predicting actual crowds instead of wait times?

 

[CanadianPaco]

Ah the great debate continues! I read both and compare both and choose what sounds right for me.

 

[eliz603]

I think they are measuring different things. I used TP. The days with the Christmas party were supposed to be low crowd days, but it was packed! I read thier site a little closer and found out why it was so packed on a day they said was low crowds. They are not predicting crowds at TP, they are predicting wait times. During the Christmas party, wait times were low, but the park was so crowded I could not move! I wonder if Easy is predicting actual crowds instead of wait times?

Perhaps this is it. I care less about the actual crowd and more about the wait. Maybe that's why TP works for us.

 

[DizFanSLD]

This is the eternal question. As for me, I use TP, because they are very forthcoming about the science of how they measure and predict crowds. And maybe it's just a perception thing, but I feel like since they are charging a (low) fee for the service, they are more invested in perfecting it. I can't find any information on how the other site reaches its conclusions. I love the custom touring plans, and over the years, I have had great results following their recommendations. But overall, I would bet that either one will work better than having no access to crowd data or info.