chances???

[lulu2]

On Sunday we put in an offer for HH, it was accepted by the seller and I was notified it went to Disney ROFR yesterday. So, here is my question: I was planning on a trip to WDW Monday, October 26-Friday October 30. I will want either a studio or 1 bedroom what are my chances of getting in anywhere? I was told it can take up to 6-8 weeks to close and get into the system. I don't care where we stay, but what are your thoughts on simply finding a room available??? It seems as though OKW and SS are often available, would this be true in May for an October stay?? Any information is appreciated....

 

[hellerjw]

If you aren't picky about what resort you stay at you shouldn't have too much trouble finding something during those dates. The Epcot resorts will be next to impossible to get if F&W is going on but the others should be fairly easy, particularly the larger resorts like SSR & AKV (most of the new Kidani building should be finished by then).

 

[lulu2]

Thanks, I think we enjoy AKL. I guess we'll see.....

 

[disneyistheone]

I would guess that SSR would be a sure thing.

 

[Deb & Bill]

I would think it might be tough to get anything in May for October. You are looking at the F&W festival as well as MNSSHP.

 

[circhead]

I don't think your chances of getting a room in October are good. I waitlisted at my home resort(VWL) at 10 months out two years ago and never got in. Last year I reserved at 11 months but was unable to get my first choice room.

I wish you luck, however and to quote Disney "Welcome Home".

 

[lulu2]

YIKESReally? NO Availability, anywhere? I don't care if it's a studio or one bedroom! Any other thoughts??? I could book a regular room with points, right?

 

[circhead]

You can book a regular room with points but that becomes more expensive than booking directly, ( cash required versus rental rate of your points). I have never rented but I keep an eye on that board and the going price seems to be about $10.00 per point.
Also they will probably have rooms available on Central reservations even if the DVC inventory is gone.
IMHO the smaller rooms go faster because they take fewer points and people can extend their stay. It would probably be easier to get a larger room.

Good luck, relax and enjoy.

 

[hellerjw]

There will be more inventory available this year than last with AKV getting completed and BLT getting into full swing. I think your chances will be pretty good if you aren't concerned about which resort you book. Nobody knows for sure so these are all just everyone's educated guesses at this point.

 

[Cmbar]

I would think it might be tough to get anything in May for October. You are looking at the F&W festival as well as MNSSHP.

Wow, This DVC thing looks to be getting harder and harder. October?? I know the F&W festival, but you really think all the DVC Studios or one bedrooms will be gone in all the resorts?? Wow if I can't book five months out in a time of year when all kids are in school, what will it be like at other times.

Wow, I am really sorry to hear this and I am getting really nervous about it.

I guess I should't get those developer points for SSR that have to be used by OCT. We want to use them for Aug16-22 this year. Do you think it will even be possible?? Do you think I should ask my Guide before we purchase?

 

[WilsonFlyer]

I booked just yesterday for Sept 27-Oct 2 1BR at SSR on incentive points. No problems at all but hey, it was in March, technically. It is the first week of F&W though.

I wouldn't sweat it too much. I, for one, would be VERY surprised to see you come back and report you couldn't get anything DVC on-site, despite what others here have said.

 

[jamie&Greg]

Hi! Congrats on your purchase!!

Honestly I don't think you will have a prob. getting something (may not be first choice) for that time frame. I just booked 7 months out for end of Oct. at BCV one bed. with no prob. Not even a waitlist!! Last year we booked about 2 months before our early november trip and got BWV no prob.

Adminitaly it can be hard to get BCV or BWV due to F&W fest - but I strongly think something will be avial.

I don't think you can pay as much attetion to exsperiances that happened over 2 years ago. Think about it - there are SO many rooms avial now with the opening of the new AKL and BLT And SSR being almost sold out.

Don't worry to much!!

 

[Deb & Bill]

There may be rooms built and open at AKV and BLT, but if they haven't been declared into inventory (meaning, haven't been sold yet), they won't be open for DVC members to book using points.

Studios and two bedroom villas usually are the first to go. Two bedroom because people need a room that holds up to 8. Studios because they cost about half what the one bedroom requires.

About booking a non-DVC hotel room. If you are in the last four months of your use year, you can't book a non-DVC stay. So if your UY is Dec, you could book up to July 31 for a stay before Dec 1. If you have a Sept UY, you can book up to April 30 for a non-DVC stay before Sep 1.

 

[lulu2]

Well, it looks like a 50/50 of mixed views....So, I guess I'll go forward and get what we get. If we don't pass ROFR we will just rent and when another contract looks good, we'll put an offer in again. But, hopefully it will all work out and we'll find a unit available somewhere...........Until then, I'll most likely drive myself crazzzzy I think the waiting may kill me!

 

[Dean]

Wow, This DVC thing looks to be getting harder and harder. October?? I know the F&W festival, but you really think all the DVC Studios or one bedrooms will be gone in all the resorts?? Wow if I can't book five months out in a time of year when all kids are in school, what will it be like at other times.

Wow, I am really sorry to hear this and I am getting really nervous about it.

I guess I should't get those developer points for SSR that have to be used by OCT. We want to use them for Aug16-22 this year. Do you think it will even be possible?? Do you think I should ask my Guide before we purchase?

IMO anyone who cannot plan at least in the home resort window is asking for trouble and it's likely to be that anything under 10 months is difficult in about 2-4 years. Still those that plan ahead and put in the work and effort are going to often have success.

For the OP I'd make a cancelable cash reservation then try when you get the points and wait list if you need to when the time comes.

 

[jamie&Greg]

IMO anyone who cannot plan at least in the home resort window is asking for trouble and it's likely to be that anything under 10 months is difficult in about 2-4 years. Still those that plan ahead and put in the work and effort are going to often have success.

For the OP I'd make a cancelable cash reservation then try when you get the points and wait list if you need to when the time comes.

I do agree that if you MUST have those dates you should make a Cancelable Cash ressie (however I still think you will be ok).

Honestly out of all our DVC trips only 2 have been booked more then 7 months. I just booked one last month for end of April - which should be a hard time to get. Of course if you want a certain resort you should plan and book early - but if you are flexable with dates I think you have a good chance of getting something even without 10 months of planning.

Dean - what are you bassing this info. on?? Not trying to start an argument - just really wondering.

Thanks,

 

[Dean]

Dean - what are you bassing this info. on?? Not trying to start an argument - just really wondering.

That reservations are becoming more difficult the last couple of years or so and likely continue to do so the next couple of years. The system will not likely be at it's max impact for 2-3 years after SSR has been completely sold out. Basically once new members there have tried their resort a couple of times. To be more specific, this is likely to be only around half the year that is truly that difficult but it includes mid spring, mid summer and Oct through NY. The risk of not having availability is simply too much for many in this situation to plan routinely to be under the 7 month window. Some will be able to make it work but you'll see more and more posts to the contrary as people can't get anything or at least what they want. BLT will have little impact and HI will have modest impact at most in all likelihood. Remember you're looking at buying going forward, if it were a stock, DVC would be ahold in this situation.

 

[Deb & Bill]

I do agree that if you MUST have those dates you should make a Cancelable Cash ressie (however I still think you will be ok).

Honestly out of all our DVC trips only 2 have been booked more then 7 months. I just booked one last month for end of April - which should be a hard time to get. Of course if you want a certain resort you should plan and book early - but if you are flexable with dates I think you have a good chance of getting something even without 10 months of planning.

Dean - what are you bassing this info. on?? Not trying to start an argument - just really wondering.

Thanks,

I'd bet there are a lot of cancellations for DVC trips right now with people losing jobs or tight money. So there are going to be a lot of banked points.

Also with more and more DVC resorts being built, more and more members will want to go at the same time. So some times there will be vacancies with no one trying for those villas. Other times, like early Dec, Christmas, Easter, Spring Break, there will be more members trying to get those weeks. So booking at your home resort at 11 months may be the best way to secure that tough to get reservation. And at 7 months out, there may not be anything to change to. And if you bought somewhere that you don't really want to stay, you may be out of luck.

Plus there are still lots of members who will still only go five nights - Sun through Thur - to save points. That leaves those Fri and Sat nights unbooked.

 

[Cmbar]

There may be rooms built and open at AKV and BLT, but if they haven't been declared into inventory (meaning, haven't been sold yet), they won't be open for DVC members to book using points.

Studios and two bedroom villas usually are the first to go. Two bedroom because people need a room that holds up to 8. Studios because they cost about half what the one bedroom requires.

About booking a non-DVC hotel room. If you are in the last four months of your use year, you can't book a non-DVC stay. So if your UY is Dec, you could book up to July 31 for a stay before Dec 1. If you have a Sept UY, you can book up to April 30 for a non-DVC stay before Sep 1.

Deb & Bill, Does this mean you can't stay at a non-DVC resort during that last four months of your use year or only that you have to book a non DVC resort by that time. So basically your banking deadline is the same as your deadline to book outside of DVC. Does that include booking a Cruise or trading out to RCI or just the Disney non-dvc resorts?? Thanks

Wow there is a lot more rules than I thought. This is staring to get difficult. My DH will be ticked if we buy this and have to loose our points each year if we have to change up plan. For us Use year will be important.

In fact can someone give me a good idea of a use year when you know you will travel in the summer. We are thinking April Use Year. That way if we have to cancel summer plans we can bank or move to the winter/spring dates. Our Deadline will be Nov 30th right? If for some reason we book for Dec and have to cancel I know my kids will always have extended days off in Feb. So we can always fit in a trip in Feb. Does this sound reasonable?

 

[Deb & Bill]

Deb & Bill, Does this mean you can't stay at a non-DVC resort during that last four months of your use year or only that you have to book a non DVC resort by that time. So basically your banking deadline is the same as your deadline to book outside of DVC. Does that include booking a Cruise or trading out to RCI or just the Disney non-dvc resorts?? Thanks

Wow there is a lot more rules than I thought. This is staring to get difficult. My DH will be ticked if we buy this and have to loose our points each year if we have to change up plan. For us Use year will be important.

In fact can someone give me a good idea of a use year when you know you will travel in the summer. We are thinking April Use Year. That way if we have to cancel summer plans we can bank or move to the winter/spring dates. Our Deadline will be Nov 30th right? If for some reason we book for Dec and have to cancel I know my kids will always have extended days off in Feb. So we can always fit in a trip in Feb. Does this sound reasonable?

You can't book a non-DVC stay during the last four months. You can book it during the first eight months of your UY for anytime during the UY. That includes anything non-DVC. So if you are in the last four months of your UY (too late to bank anything) you'll either have to book a DVC stay or lose your points.

It may be hard to get a reservation in Nov for February. But if you cancel far enough out, you might be able to get that Feb reservation.