Personally I think your chances are very good. As an AP holder since 1995, I watch for patterns for discounts to help me choose my vacations for the next year. Since EAster is April 12, the week prior and week after will be blackedout of discounts, so your chances are very good that you'll be able to get some type of discount. This year we saw blackouts for all holiday weekends to include MLK weekend for the first time. (Since that's when we're going in January 09, I just booked my room at rack rate and am not even thinking that a discount will come out--only 1 night before our DVC stay). Unfortunately for you, you did choose one of the highest seasons to visit--PEAK season. Most likely you won't hear anything about discounts for that timeframe until January (my guess). Good luck!