Calling all DVC MATH gurus... Target price per point for all points over remaining life of contract?

[Frugal Fairy Tales]

If I am doing the math correctly it seems the price per point for Riviera direct is about $12.50 per point for all points over the entire length of the contract. When purchasing any resale contract, is there a recommended price per point for all points over the life of the contact? (I know as low as possible, but is there a reasonable target)? Thanks very much

 

[Louis morrell]

I am sure one of the math geniuses will be here soon to hypnotize you with number but I think you may be over thinking this

 

[E2ME2]

Not a Math GURU - but here's how I looked at $$/Point/Year by resort (for those resorts I was considering):
I still LOVE SSR for SAPs.
I picked up AKL during COVID at a good Resale price.
AND - I added a Small BCV - not the best value, but we love the location

DVC Resort	DIRECT $$	Years Remain	..$/Point/Year	Current MF	Est$$/P/Yr
AKL	186​	36​	$5.17​	8.24​	$13.41​
BCV	245​	21​	$11.67​	7.54​	$19.21​
BWV	210​	21​	$10.00​	8.08​	$18.08​
VGF	255​	39​	$6.54​	7.01​	$13.55​
OKW	180​	21​	$8.57​	8.81​	$17.38​
OKW+	180​	36​	$5.00​	8.81​	$13.81​
PVB	250​	45​	$5.56​	7.39​	$12.95​
RIV	201​	47​	$4.28​	8.38​	$12.66​
SSR	180​	33​	$5.45​	7.33​	$12.78​

 

[Frugal Fairy Tales]

Wow! This is fantastic!! Thank you

 

[jbreen2010]

Not a Math GURU - but here's how I looked at $$/Point/Year by resort (for those resorts I was considering):
I still LOVE SSR for SAPs.
I picked up AKL during COVID at a good Resale price.
AND - I added a Small BCV - not the best value, but we love the location

DVC Resort	DIRECT $$	Years Remain	..$/Point/Year	Current MF	Est$$/P/Yr
AKL	186​	36​	$5.17​	8.24​	$13.41​
BCV	245​	21​	$11.67​	7.54​	$19.21​
BWV	210​	21​	$10.00​	8.08​	$18.08​
VGF	255​	39​	$6.54​	7.01​	$13.55​
OKW	180​	21​	$8.57​	8.81​	$17.38​
OKW+	180​	36​	$5.00​	8.81​	$13.81​
PVB	250​	45​	$5.56​	7.39​	$12.95​
RIV	201​	47​	$4.28​	8.38​	$12.66​
SSR	180​	33​	$5.45​	7.33​	$12.78​

We did something very similar when we purchased. My husband also factored in the inflation growth too somehow. Last year we found an AUL subsidized contract that came out to like $8.79 per point per year which was what made us buy it…couldn’t believe our eyes.

 

[Ruttangel]

There is another factor here - if you buy to stay at that resort only...... then the number of points you need varies quite a bit. Here is a table with direct pricing and studio points for Season D in 2022. This moves RIV down to 5th but it does exclude incentives which can improve things a bit for some of the resorts (e.g. RIV/BWV)
The weighted average worked out as the number of rooms in each category for standard and preferred and using points needed for both.
There is even another factor if you are a family of 5 as some of these studios are out.

 

[Ruttangel]

Lets slot in some current resale pricing to see if that changes anything......yes, it does (I've used OKW-E resale pricing)
Personally I would try and get CCV resale if buying another contract, a great mix of long contract, low cost and low point chart. Each to their own though.

 

[Disneypapa]

Wonderful analysis. Thanks

 

[Frugal Fairy Tales]

Wonderful analysis. Thanks

So informative! Thank you very much.

 

[LAX]

If I am doing the math correctly it seems the price per point for Riviera direct is about $12.50 per point for all points over the entire length of the contract. When purchasing any resale contract, is there a recommended price per point for all points over the life of the contact? (I know as low as possible, but is there a reasonable target)? Thanks very much

Just keep in mind resale value should be different for RIV vs. the original resorts because of the restriction. I can't say whether the difference would justify the purchase of RIV vs. other resorts, though.

LAX

 

[LYSE]

Not a Math GURU - but here's how I looked at $$/Point/Year by resort (for those resorts I was considering):
I still LOVE SSR for SAPs.
I picked up AKL during COVID at a good Resale price.
AND - I added a Small BCV - not the best value, but we love the location

DVC Resort	DIRECT $$	Years Remain	..$/Point/Year	Current MF	Est$$/P/Yr
AKL	186​	36​	$5.17​	8.24​	$13.41​
BCV	245​	21​	$11.67​	7.54​	$19.21​
BWV	210​	21​	$10.00​	8.08​	$18.08​
VGF	255​	39​	$6.54​	7.01​	$13.55​
OKW	180​	21​	$8.57​	8.81​	$17.38​
OKW+	180​	36​	$5.00​	8.81​	$13.81​
PVB	250​	45​	$5.56​	7.39​	$12.95​
RIV	201​	47​	$4.28​	8.38​	$12.66​
SSR	180​	33​	$5.45​	7.33​	$12.78​

Yup that's how I do things, I don't bother calculating inflation because I figure I want to talk about today's dollars anyway so I just stick with current year dues, with the exception of a few years the mf increases basically just track with normal rates of inflation

 

[Frugal Fairy Tales]

My calculations show that of the WDW DVC contracts, Copper Creek is the winner from a price per point over the life of the contract perspective (without RIV incentives)

 

[Ruttangel]

150pts at CCV is now $217 for member add on or $220 for new member

 

[Frugal Fairy Tales]

150pts at CCV is now $217 for member add on or $220 for new member

Even better! Thanks

 

[Frugal Fairy Tales]

Lets slot in some current resale pricing to see if that changes anything......yes, it does (I've used OKW-E resale pricing)
Personally I would try and get CCV resale if buying another contract, a great mix of long contract, low cost and low point chart. Each to their own though.

View attachment 621439

Thank you!

 

[DisDad-]

In reviewing the estimates on how the price per point is calculated over the life of the contract, i used a different calculation for the 250 point BCV contract we just purchased last month at $160pp.
We love the beach club and stay there every year for 12 days in the last two weeks of August. We’re a small family of 3 with a 13 year old daughter so only need a studio.
The contract was fully loaded, including all 2020 points banked into March 2021 that expire Feb 28th 2022.
When doing the math and using a 4% inflation rate for the hotel side at rack rate and the villas MFs to 2042, and also considering the initial investment, my discount compared to the hotel side came out to 61% over the remaining 20 years. I also added in the extra 12 day vacation we can get at the BCV every 3 years with left over banked points and the additional vacations from the 2020 and 2021 points we’re getting as well. For several years the best room only discount Disney offers at the beach club on the hotel side is 10-15% so still a big savings and we intend on keeping our contract through its 2042 expiration.

 

[kandlsutton]

My calculations show that of the WDW DVC contracts, Copper Creek is the winner from a price per point over the life of the contract perspective (without RIV incentives)
View attachment 621791

I agree with the analysis, but the number of years remaining is off for every UY except December. Owners receive the last allocation of points in the calendar year before the contract expires since the contract expires Jan 31, 20xx. For an Aug UY at RIV, I will receive my last points on 8/1/2069, which is only 48 years remaining. Dec UYs are still in their 2020 UY, so years remaining is correct. Changes the math some for $/pt/year.

For comparison of resale contracts, you wound need to factor in the actual points received and back into the number of years remaining (if 50% of points used in 2021 UY at RIV, you would have 48.5 years worth of points remaining).

 

[rubybutt]

Interesting data, but completely wrong analysis. You assume linear depreciation in value. You MIGHT be able to make that assumption for the 2042 resorts. But the ones further out will probably appreciate and then at some point in the future start to depreciate. That is if the future is anything like the past. RIV has the highest potential to appreciate due to it not being ROFRd and in active sales currently. When incentives go away and ROFR starts then it should appreciate in resale. I do think before ROFR it will depreciate before it is sold out though. We will see. VGF resale will be really interesting. It will depend on VGF direct pricing in the next few months. I don't see anywhere but up for BLT, AKV, CCV as long as Disney maintains ROFR floor. BCV, BWV, WL all have to start depreciating soon. Even with a favorable point chart.

 

[crisi]

Lets slot in some current resale pricing to see if that changes anything......yes, it does (I've used OKW-E resale pricing)
Personally I would try and get CCV resale if buying another contract, a great mix of long contract, low cost and low point chart. Each to their own though.

View attachment 621439

This is really important. The idea that the cost of points per night is a factor is often missed in the analysis. As well as noting what the difference actually is. Lets say you really want VGF but the cost is driving you to a cheaper BLT contract. Its going to cost you approximately $106 a week per studio reservation to have eleven month advantage at the place you really want to be. $106 in Disney terms is NOTHING. But if you are really interested in BCV, the $600 a week between that and VAKL might be enough to make you think twice.

 

[rubybutt]

This is really important. The idea that the cost of points per night is a factor is often missed in the analysis. As well as noting what the difference actually is. Lets say you really want VGF but the cost is driving you to a cheaper BLT contract. Its going to cost you approximately $106 a week per studio reservation to have eleven month advantage at the place you really want to be. $106 in Disney terms is NOTHING. But if you are really interested in BCV, the $600 a week between that and VAKL might be enough to make you think twice.

The problem with that thinking is you have to use the points at 1 resort exclusively for it to matter. Have BCV points and stay at VGF?, you have really messed up the math.