Booking Back to Normal Predictions

[Bjaiken77]

Everyone knows it’s crazy looking at the calendar right now, but my guess is it won’t take too long to get back to normal. In other words, if people have/had extra points during COVID, I could see them upping their accommodations or selling them. I just don’t think it’s in people’s nature to bank and operate on a surplus at Disney for long. Hopefully, it goes that way. What do you think?

 

[Marionnette]

Everyone knows it’s crazy looking at the calendar right now, but my guess is it won’t take too long to get back to normal. In other words, if people have/had extra points during COVID, I could see them upping their accommodations or selling them. I just don’t think it’s in people’s nature to bank and operate on a surplus at Disney for long. Hopefully, it goes that way. What do you think?

I banked my December 2019 back in July 2020 because things weren't looking good for another trip. I ended up renting those out, banking all of my 2020 points and am going in December, using those banked points and only a few current points. It's going to take a few more years before I'm back to my regular habit of "bank some, use all current, borrow from next year". There are just too many points and too little time.

 

[Sandisw]

I do think we will be back to typical patterns for 2022.

 

[Nabas]

Earlier today, President Biden announced plans to get 70% of the population with at least one dose by July 1.

Consulting with local theme park operators, Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings said all restrictions will be lifted when 70% of the local population has received 1 dose and/or the positivity rate is under 5%.

Disney is going to want fiscal year 2022 (which starts in October) to be a bumper year.

I predict WDW being essentially back to normal before the 50th anniversary celebration, October 1, 2021.

 

[LPnerd]

Earlier today, President Biden announced plans to get 70% of the population with at least one dose by July 1.

Consulting with local theme park operators, Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings said all restrictions will be lifted when 70% of the local population has received 1 dose and/or the positivity rate is under 5%.

Disney is going to want fiscal year 2022 (which starts in October) to be a bumper year.

I predict WDW being essentially back to normal before the 50th anniversary celebration, October 1, 2021.

I have heard from several cast members, resorts are open to all but you will need vaccine card to get into parks. and masks are still mandatory at WDW even through this fool of a gov. has dropped all precautions in FL.

 

[YourEveryDayAdam]

It's my belief that the DVC points will be a bit screwed up for a few years. I think it'll be 2023 before we see things back to normal on room availability...but possibly things even be impacted by the points glut into 2025.

A few things to keep in mind:

ALL DVC resorts were closed for 3-4 months. Aulani was closed for nearly 8 months. Grand Californian was closed for over a year! It only just recently reopened. Off hand, I'd say we're talking around 10 million points of inventory lost.

Even AFTER reopening, it was many months after the WDW resorts reopened before the DVC resorts were back to being booked to capacity again. The inventory was available, but no one was booking it. Probably another 10 million or so points of inventory wasted.

ADDITIONALLY, DVC waved pretty much ALL of the ways that points were lost due to expiration until very recently. Depending on circumstances, points were extended beyond their original expiration dates, holding points were waved, points were unborrowed, normal banking deadlines were waived.

If I had a Feb use year, I could've cancelled a week long trip with dates from December 24-31 on December 23rd, and bank ALL the points into the next use year without any penalties or holding on my points.

Basically, there are millions and millions of extra points out there and we can still bank points forward. It'll be a LONG time before enough points are "lost" out of the system from people not banking their points in time to make up for it. I think things will be more back to normal in 2023, but I wouldn't be surprised if there's still availability issues into 2025 because of the shutdowns.

The only way it really gets resolved more quickly is if DVC institutes BANKING restrictions. IF they were to put a 50% cap on BANKING points instead of borrowing, then the whole thing gets fixed in a year...but you'll then have swarms of angry people who have hundreds of points expiring and no way to actually use or bank them.

I honestly think that EVERYTHING is going to be GONE at the 7 month mark...with a few straggling days on some 1-bedrooms. Most of the time, a lot of the hard-to-book resorts will likely be completely booked at 10 months, or even right as the booking window opens at 11 months for a year or two.

 

[Nabas]

I have heard from several cast members, resorts are open to all but you will need vaccine card to get into parks. and masks are still mandatory at WDW even through this fool of a gov. has dropped all precautions in FL.

In response to Governor DeSantis' order, Disney has already announced that there are no changes to current WDW policies.

 

[LPnerd]

It's my belief that the DVC points will be a bit screwed up for a few years. I think it'll be 2023 before we see things back to normal on room availability...but possibly things even be impacted by the points glut into 2025.

A few things to keep in mind:

ALL DVC resorts were closed for 3-4 months. Aulani was closed for nearly 8 months. Grand Californian was closed for over a year! It only just recently reopened. Off hand, I'd say we're talking around 10 million points of inventory lost.

Even AFTER reopening, it was many months after the WDW resorts reopened before the DVC resorts were back to being booked to capacity again. The inventory was available, but no one was booking it. Probably another 10 million or so points of inventory wasted.

ADDITIONALLY, DVC waved pretty much ALL of the ways that points were lost due to expiration until very recently. Depending on circumstances, points were extended beyond their original expiration dates, holding points were waved, points were unborrowed, normal banking deadlines were waived.

If I had a Feb use year, I could've cancelled a week long trip with dates from December 24-31 on December 23rd, and bank ALL the points into the next use year without any penalties or holding on my points.

Basically, there are millions and millions of extra points out there and we can still bank points forward. It'll be a LONG time before enough points are "lost" out of the system from people not banking their points in time to make up for it. I think things will be more back to normal in 2023, but I wouldn't be surprised if there's still availability issues into 2025 because of the shutdowns.

The only way it really gets resolved more quickly is if DVC institutes BANKING restrictions. IF they were to put a 50% cap on BANKING points instead of borrowing, then the whole thing gets fixed in a year...but you'll then have swarms of angry people who have hundreds of points expiring and no way to actually use or bank them.

I honestly think that EVERYTHING is going to be GONE at the 7 month mark...with a few straggling days on some 1-bedrooms. Most of the time, a lot of the hard-to-book resorts will likely be completely booked at 10 months, or even right as the booking window opens at 11 months for a year or two.

also remember they are down a good number of employees that aren't coming back.

 

[Chuck S]

I almost always operate with some banked pints, but not a huge amount. I've used all my COVID banked June 2020 points, all my 2021 points, and borrowed 19 from 2022 for a big trip in Thanksgiving for 11 people

 

[LPnerd]

I almost always operate with some banked pints, but not a huge amount. I've used all my COVID banked June 2020 points, all my 2021 points, and borrowed 19 from 2022 for a big trip in Thanksgiving for 11 people

That sounds like lots of FUN!

 

[Nabas]

I almost always operate with some banked pints, but not a huge amount.

A bank is an odd place to put a pint.

Usually, I just drink it right away.

 

[Matty B13]

I wonder how many people will just let there DVC points expire at the end of the year, most owners aren't like the Disboard power users and let points just expire all the time. I wish we could see what that number is from DVC management, I'm guessing it is a pretty good amount.

 

[chalee94]

most owners aren't like the Disboard power users and let points just expire all the time.

I really don't think that this has been true for over a decade. As renting became easier and more visible, that was a much more preferable option to losing points for zero value.

I am guessing that it will be several years before we are back to normal...

 

[The Jackal]

I have heard from several cast members, resorts are open to all but you will need vaccine card to get into parks. and masks are still mandatory at WDW even through this fool of a gov. has dropped all precautions in FL.

If you need a vaccine card to get in expect extremely long lines and a bunch of upset people. Not sure how a theme park set up for children can deny entrance to children who have no vaccine shots because they are not available to them.

 

[LPnerd]

If you need a vaccine card to get in expect extremely long lines and a bunch of upset people. Not sure how a theme park set up for children can deny entrance to children who have no vaccine shots because they are not available to them.

OMG, vaccines aren't even ok'd yet for kids under 12. also, you can't be upset if you got that notice with your reservation inquiry. You want back to normal? Get your vaccine so the darn thing doesn't get more chances to mutate.
also, you would just show your vaccine card when you go through security. Not a problem, just have it out to show. Shorter line than when someone brings a HUGE bag or backpack loaded to the gills, LOL.

 

[LPnerd]

I wonder how many people will just let there DVC points expire at the end of the year, most owners aren't like the Disboard power users and let points just expire all the time. I wish we could see what that number is from DVC management, I'm guessing it is a pretty good amount.

I'm too cheap to let mine expire.

 

[Matty B13]

I'm too cheap to let mine expire.

I'm amazed at all the posts on Facebook about simple booking questions and banking and borrowing questions. This is why I think a lot of points just expire each year, even with all of the information on the internet. I thought I saw a person who is a long time owner with a huge amount of points just figured out they could bank their points into the next year, and then combine them.

 

[Grumpy by Birth]

I do wish people would educate themselves more on the ins and outs of DVC so that they don't lose points. I hate to see people lose money.

But, that said, it will mitigate the points overage for the membership at large if there are people who don't manage their points well and they end up expiring (decreasing the "surplus population" as Dickens/Scrooge put it). I'm sure some of that happens every year anyway, but will there be more points than usual expiring in the next year because many people still aren't able/willing to travel and have large numbers of expiring points?

Sure, there's the rental market, but there are only so many people looking to rent and if the supply exceeds demand, there will still be a lot of points expiring. I do think it will be a year or more before the surplus points level back out, but there's a chance that it doesn't take a decade as some have predicted because many of the surplus points will end up expiring.