Best time for members to buy new DVC resort direct?

[Frugal Fairy Tales]

For existing DVC members, when is the best price to add on direct points? For VGF2 was it when it first went on sale to members or during the summer 2023 incentives? (Strategizing a potential future add on)

 

[intamin]

Typically as soon as it goes on sale. If you want to get technical its between the 10 day rescission period between the first and second round of incentives.

 

[DanCali]

For existing DVC members, when is the best price to add on direct points? For VGF2 was it when it first went on sale to members or during the summer 2023 incentives? (Strategizing a potential future add on)

To me, it'd be a good opportunity to buy direct when the price difference between direct and resale for that resort is "small enough" to justify the direct purchase. There was a good opportunity in May with AKV (200 pts for $143/pt after MB) and there was arguably a better opportunity in June with VGF (150 pts for $161 after MB). If there was ever a similar opportunity with an O14 resort I'd definitely consider doing it again (e.g. Poly1 for ~$170 after MB). We may never see those prices for those resorts again, nor have the opportunity to buy any O14 resort again at a reasonable direct price. I So I don't know that this can be timed or strategized.

I would be extremely hesitant to buy direct at any resort that has the resale restrictions at any imaginable discounted direct price since we don't really know yet where resale prices will land for those types of resorts once supply is more steady and the market reaches an equilibrium. If in 5 years RIV stabilizes at $120/point or higher (without ROFR), I may consider a direct buy at a restricted resort. If it goes sub-$100/pt, a direct buy would probably not be something I'd ever consider without some material point washing to go along with it.

 

[Sandisw]

Most often, the prices are best at the beginning. But, the pay few years had seen something slightly better when sales ended up slowing.

The MB program brought back this summer really helped many choose direct.

 

[Jwaire]

We need a thread that tracks incentive pricing throughout the life of the resort. Most of the time it's in the beginning (usually pre-sale for current members), but there's been a few edge cases like RIV and GFV that the better pricing came one or two seasons in.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

To me, it'd be a good opportunity to buy direct when the price difference between direct and resale for that resort is "small enough" to justify the direct purchase. There was a good opportunity in May with AKV (200 pts for $143/pt after MB) and there was arguably a better opportunity in June with VGF (150 pts for $161 after MB). If there was ever a similar opportunity with an O14 resort I'd definitely consider doing it again (e.g. Poly1 for ~$170 after MB). We may never see those prices for those resorts again, nor have the opportunity to buy any O14 resort again at a reasonable direct price. I So I don't know that this can be timed or strategized.

I would be extremely hesitant to buy direct at any resort that has the resale restrictions at any imaginable discounted direct price since we don't really know yet where resale prices will land for those types of resorts once supply is more steady and the market reaches an equilibrium. If in 5 years RIV stabilizes at $120/point or higher (without ROFR), I may consider a direct buy at a restricted resort. If it goes sub-$100/pt, a direct buy would probably not be something I'd ever consider without some material point washing to go along with it.

I agree with everything Dan said but my gut reaction to your question was “when the economy is weak and/or prevailing interest rates make it hard for many people to afford to buy vacation real estate.”

For example, VDH is only going to get a lot cheaper if things go downhill for Disney and/or the economy—otherwise they can keep renting VDH at a profit until enough people want to buy it.

The VGF promotion this summer almost certainly happened because of a combination of (a) Disney is now having more trouble selling out VGF (and all deluxe resorts) at rack rates and/or (b) has a high enough cost of capital they wanted to pull future guest visit money forward into huge sales numbers today.

 

[Jwaire]

The VGF promotion this summer almost certainly happened because of a combination of (a) Disney is now having more trouble selling out VGF (and all deluxe resorts) at rack rates and/or (b) has a high enough cost of capital they wanted to pull future guest visit money forward into huge sales numbers today.

Well, it was also a cheap flip. That played into the ability to discount too. They made a killing off of BPK.

 

[Robbie Cottam]

It

To me, it'd be a good opportunity to buy direct when the price difference between direct and resale for that resort is "small enough" to justify the direct purchase. There was a good opportunity in May with AKV (200 pts for $143/pt after MB) and there was arguably a better opportunity in June with VGF (150 pts for $161 after MB). If there was ever a similar opportunity with an O14 resort I'd definitely consider doing it again (e.g. Poly1 for ~$170 after MB). We may never see those prices for those resorts again, nor have the opportunity to buy any O14 resort again at a reasonable direct price. I So I don't know that this can be timed or strategized.

I would be extremely hesitant to buy direct at any resort that has the resale restrictions at any imaginable discounted direct price since we don't really know yet where resale prices will land for those types of resorts once supply is more steady and the market reaches an equilibrium. If in 5 years RIV stabilizes at $120/point or higher (without ROFR), I may consider a direct buy at a restricted resort. If it goes sub-$100/pt, a direct buy would probably not be something I'd ever consider without some material point washing to go along with it.

It can always be justify …

 

[Robbie Cottam]

Whatever you do, you don’t want to get to a point where you have to buy a resort that is sold out, to be able to use that resort they way you would like….

If you like you need 250 points for that resort makes you get them before the sensory sells out…

The premium that Disney charges is pretty steep and will negative any savings you have realized…

It will be interesting to see what price point the cabins and poly to are when offered to the members

 

[Genie+]

Doesn’t hurt if you can time one of the best offers with buying right before your UY starts. Get the best price and the most points with the least dues.

 

[Robbie Cottam]

Doesn’t hurt if you can time one of the best offers with buying right before your UY starts. Get the best price and the most points with the least dues.

Yea that is true if the resort has been open for at least a year, but show does that work For a new resort ?

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

Doesn’t hurt if you can time one of the best offers with buying right before your UY starts. Get the best price and the most points with the least dues.

Great point, and another good reason to have two use years.

 

[Sandisw]

Yea that is true if the resort has been open for at least a year, but show does that work For a new resort ?

The year it opens will alway start with that calendar years points and those with later UYs will pay a prorated dues.

So, initial incentives for a brand new resort are not going to combine with those extra points.

 

[TheDailyMoo]

Most of the time it's in the beginning (usually pre-sale for current members), but there's been a few edge cases like RIV and GFV that the better pricing came one or two seasons in.

Has anyone done the math to see if buying VGF during summer promotion was better or having paid more a few years earlier but having gotten value out of the points used?

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

Has anyone done the math to see if buying VGF during summer promotion was better or having paid more a few years earlier but having gotten value out of the points used?

I've you're going to do that analysis, you'd also want to consider the both the time value of money and inflation. I'm too lazy to look up the exact math tonight, but it looks like the best you could do with incentives then was $185/pt (and it would have been 197/pt at 150 points)... per official government data (https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl?cost1=180&year1=202001&year2=202308) it looks like $185 in March of 2022 is worth $197 in August of 2023.

 

[PolyRob]

Has anyone done the math to see if buying VGF during summer promotion was better or having paid more a few years earlier but having gotten value out of the points used?

This summer promotion was better if you stayed under 300 points. 2022 was the first UY offered with BPK since the resort did not open in 2021. People purchasing VGF in March 2022 and September 2023 with an October UY got the same remaining years, but different promotions. You could get the same "value" out of the points if you banked, but pay less.

This was the initial pricing to current members for VGF:

At $207 per point in 2022 with initial incentives, 300+ points would have been $179 per point. 150 points this summer cost $183.1 before Magical Beginnings. Anything under 300 points was cheaper this summer at the $217 price per point with incentives. That same 150 points cost $197 in 2022. $13.90 MORE per point and no option for Magical Beginnings. You could have banked them and still used them.

 

[CarolMN]

If you are buying a small contract, it's almost always when the resort first goes on sale. I don't recall any incentives ever being offered for less than 125 points. So far, this has definitely held true for me and our 75 point contract at VGF

 

[Bearval]

For existing DVC members, when is the best price to add on direct points? For VGF2 was it when it first went on sale to members or during the summer 2023 incentives? (Strategizing a potential future add on)

It is wherever you have a extra $30K to $40K laying around collecting dust..............