Because I am a lunatic...

[notrub98]

I used TP's actual crowd calendar to plug in all parks, all dates that I am interested in, and set up a calculation to show the average crowd level for particular weeks. It appears that the week prior to Thanksgiving was more crowded this year than the week after Thanksgiving (3.8 vs 3.2). In case anyone but me cares.

 

[crazycatlady]

I used TP's actual crowd calendar to plug in all parks, all dates that I am interested in, and set up a calculation to show the average crowd level for particular weeks. It appears that the week prior to Thanksgiving was more crowded this year than the week after Thanksgiving (3.8 vs 3.2). In case anyone but me cares.

I care! We are considering going the week before the week of Thanksgiving next year.

 

[robndani]

Same, now I'm not sure, lol

 

[Mikie]

Gotta love a numbers nerd! Now, if you,ve got the itch, you could calculate the average change in standby wait times for my favorite rides year over year and the yes/no on whether the dining plan is a good choice for a given list of ADRs. . . . I could go on and on with "Disney math!"

 

[avic77]

Gotta love a numbers nerd! Now, if you,ve got the itch, you could calculate the average change in standby wait times for my favorite rides year over year and the yes/no on whether the dining plan is a good choice for a given list of ADRs. . . . I could go on and on with "Disney math!"

There is a Dining plan calculator that does that for you Mikie I dont know if its ok to link it tho

 

[lynetteSC]

Totally believe that - we were there the week prior and it was crazy!

 

[WDWLODGE]

Totally believe that - we were there the week prior and it was crazy!

So were we. It was definitely much busier than predicted the week before Thanksgiving this year.

 

[Robo]

There is a Dining plan calculator that does that for you Mikie I dont know if its ok to link it tho

You can post the link.

 

[v3rs3]

Good to know, we'll be there the two weeks after Thanksgiving! 347 days to go!

 

[jfm685]

There is a Dining plan calculator that does that for you Mikie I dont know if its ok to link it tho

please post the link!!

 

[Dan Murphy]

Here are a couple for a start....

http://www.distripplanner.com/

https://www.dvcrequest.com/dining-plan-calculator.asp


Others here....

https://www.google.com/search?q=Din...hrome..69i57&sourceid=chrome&es_sm=0&ie=UTF-8

 

[Grumpy92]

Their definitely has been an increase in crowd levels this year. In previous years you would know the slower periods and that is just not the case anymore. I dont know what is causing the upturn in guest but more people are going to WDW.

 

[SeilerBird]

I am a local with an AP and I go frequently. I never bother looking at crowd calendars anymore because they are so inaccurate and so unnecessary for me. I know so many secrets that the crowd just doesn't bother me anymore.

 

[nat8199]

Here are a couple for a start....

http://www.distripplanner.com/

https://www.dvcrequest.com/dining-plan-calculator.asp


Others here....

https://www.google.com/search?q=Din...hrome..69i57&sourceid=chrome&es_sm=0&ie=UTF-8

Thank you! I had never seen the first calculator before. Love it! We are one of the few families that the DxDDP works for and this calculator confirmed it. I cannot wait for our trip!

 

[JZCubed]

Their definitely has been an increase in crowd levels this year. In previous years you would know the slower periods and that is just not the case anymore. I dont know what is causing the upturn in guest but more people are going to WDW.

These days, I tend to rely on information from Josh @ easywdw.com.

As he has mentioned the past few months, there are really no periods of low crowds, just periods on less than jam packed, anymore. An improved economy and marketing by Disney helps keep the Parks full.

As to the OP, 3.2 vs. 3.8 (out of possible 10) crowd levels might not truly be statistically relevant given that Tour Plans is not using any official data about Park crowd levels. In other words, crowd levels are more of an exit poll than actual voting results. I'm not trying to downplay the value of Tour Plans, rather, just pointing out that the difference between 3.2 vs. 3.8 can be statistical noise more than an actual outcome.

Coincidentally, my family just returned from a post-Thanksgiving week and found the crowds to be workable. Seeing anything under a 5.0 is basically all the same if you are a veteran of Disney Parks, get to Rope Drop on some days, and utilize FP+ wisely.

 

[ghtx]

I used TP's actual crowd calendar to plug in all parks, all dates that I am interested in, and set up a calculation to show the average crowd level for particular weeks. It appears that the week prior to Thanksgiving was more crowded this year than the week after Thanksgiving (3.8 vs 3.2). In case anyone but me cares.

I am a lunatic, too, and I think that what you did hardly qualifies. Maybe for a rookie lunatic.

 

[Mikie]

I am a lunatic, too, and I think that what you did hardly qualifies. Maybe for a rookie lunatic.

at "rookie lunatic". . . How do you get to be an "expert lunatic"? Or do I want to know?

 

[Laketravis]

As to the OP, 3.2 vs. 3.8 (out of possible 10) crowd levels might not truly be statistically relevant given that Tour Plans is not using any official data about Park crowd levels. In other words, crowd levels are more of an exit poll than actual voting results.

To further clarify, the TP "crowd levels" are not a representation of the actual or even estimated number of people in the park; they are based on the average waits for a small number of attractions in that park from 10am to 5pm that day.

This methodology could be somewhat accurate in the past but with the advent of FP's advanced distribution algorithms and for many more attractions than included in the past, the predictions may prove less accurate in the future.

 

[ghtx]

To further clarify, the TP "crowd levels" are not a representation of the actual or even estimated number of people in the park; they are based on the average waits for a small number of attractions in that park from 10am to 5pm that day.

This methodology could be somewhat accurate in the past but with the advent of FP's advanced distribution algorithms and for many more attractions than included in the past, the predictions may prove less accurate in the future.

I think I disagree with all of this. Their crowd levels are based on wait times at rides, but it's a decent-sized sample of rides (see here: http://touringplans.com/walt-disney-world/crowd-calendar/faq), including all of the major ones. It's true that these are based on wait times and not crowds (i.e. they're not counting people entering the gates), but obviously wait times are crowd levels are highly (nearly perfectly) correlated. And anyways isn't wait times, not crowds, what we really care about?

Also I'm not sure why FP+ will muck up the relationship between crowds and wait times. If FP+ works perfectly and wait times are down across the board, there will still be a highly (nearly perfect) correlation between crowds and wait times.

 

[Laketravis]

Their own disparities between "Predicted" and "Actual" have been growing larger, suggesting that their current method of predicting "crowd levels" may not be as accurate as it has been in the past. The only substantial change has been the addition of the FP algorithms and they have caused increased guest turnover in the parks, downward pressure on wait times for high demand attractions and upward pressure on wait times for lower demand attractions.

In other words, they need a better way to guess crowd levels because their guesses are less accurate now than they used to be.