Yeah, I do understand well how the system works. But allow me to give an example... I would argue that the club level villas at Animal Kingdom-Jambo are possibly the most sought-after villas in the entire DVC system. There are only five studios and five 1BRs, and those go almost completely exactly at 11 months; however, you can always see some trailing availability at the end of the 11-month mark. Plus, you can look at the calendar throughout the year see scattered availability of a day or two here and there (from canceled trips, changed plans, etc). And as another example, there are only two grand villas at the Grand Californian (two grand villas total of any view type), and you can see at least some availability in the 7-11 month booking period.
At Aulani, you will see zero dates available for the standard view GV. Surely someone would cancel, switch dates, shorten a trip... Something. But not a single date appears, ever. You should at least be able to see a day or two at the end of the 11 months plus 7, but nada.
As I said, the impact from guaranteed weeks is the best theory I have heard, but even still...