I wasn't going to add more OT to this, but I feel like you're saying I'm lying. Clearly I was just really unlucky.
It was about 11:45 am because I had to finish another attraction, wait in line for pizza, get my hungry kids settled at a table with their dad, and run across the park but the ToT fastpasses were for after 5 pm. I don't remember the exact time, but I skipped ToT so I could wait in line for food to carry into the Fantasmic theater as soon as they opened the doors.
I was surprised myself, considering it was a non-holiday in mid-January. I'd heard that it was challenging to ride TSM more than once without a long line, but I didn't expect ToT to be so bad. I gave up on the RnR when I saw the fastpasses return times for that and ToT. It was one of only two Fantasmic nights that week, but it obviously also had a lot to do with the huge groups of Brazilian teenagers, which is not something I could really plan for.
I agree that the key to avoiding MOST lines is good planning -- especially making rope drop. At our last off-season visit to Epcot, we were running through the fastpass line of Soarin for the second time while people were in a two-hour standby line because the fastpasses were gone by mid-afternoon.
Crowds can be unpredictable though when there are huge tour groups. It's also important to remember that not everyone can travel during non-peak times. That will be us when our kids are in middle school and high school and can't miss a week of school.
Back on topic, any guesses what the lines will be like at US on Thurs, Dec 9? If we go, it would be physically impossible to make rope-drop, we aren't staying in a hotel, and I can't afford express passes on top of the one-day passes. We are willing to use single-rider. All I've heard is that it will be managable, but is that holding true with Harry Potter at IOA?