I suspect that the resale value will decline at some point as the remaining life of the contract draws near. If I recollect accurately, most of the posts I have read on DIS seem to place that somewhere between 20 and 30 years into the contract -- so 2012 to 2022. There are a number of variables such as Disney's ROFR actitivty, resort pricing trends,
DVC direct sales availability and possibly others.
If ROFR were to disappear today, it would take some time before the market became fully aware of the fact and some decline would be likely. But the nature of the product would not change. I don't see any reason why member interest would change so the supply of resales should remain constant. And no ROFR should not change the interest of potential members except possibly make them a bit more aggressive on their offers.
The timeshare industry is growing rapidly and that is because the product has improved, the practices have improved, there is more regulation and consumer protection. The major brand names in the hospitality business are all in this market in a big way. Prices continue to climb at the retail level even as general housing construction and sales have softened. Most importantly more and more people are finding timesharing a pleasurable way to travel.
The significant risks to this industry are events that disrupt or alter leisure travel -- attacks by terrorists, flu pandemics, economic recessions, currency fluctuation and severe weather events. Those are all wild cards. Some can be insured against, some, if one is willing, can be mitigated with a little prudent planning. The rest are simply out of our hands to control or influence.
