Analysis of Riviera sales as of 5/10/2019

[stewart715]

Sales for Riviera began a little over 6 weeks ago. Here are some fast facts on how the resort is doing as of 5/10/2019. Keep in mind, these are contracts that have been recorded, so there is likely a fair amount processing still, but still a good metric on where things stand:

• 470 contracts have been sold thus far
• 71,691 points have been sold (approximately 1.1% of the 6.5 million resort's total points)
  
• The average contract size is 153 points
• The median contract size is 150 points
• The smallest contract sold is 50 points
• The largest contract sold so far is 1,235 points
• 7 fixed weeks have been sold (2 for week 48, 3 for week 49, 2 for week 51)
• Fixed week types: 3 Standard Studio, 2 Studio Preferred, 1 Two Bedroom Standard, 1 Grand Villa
• Using some quick math at an average of $165 per point, this represents approx. $10,000,000 give or take a couple million in total sales for Riviera so far.

 

[BillPA]

So, at that rate it will only take another 544 weeks to sell out.

 

[stewart715]

So, at that rate it will only take another 544 weeks to sell out.

It certainly is selling slower than Copper Creek and even Aulani. I imagine a lot has to do with it not being complete and there not being any real opinion on it yet. Also, the Skyliner is untested/unproven. Finally, the new restrictions almost certainly have something to do with it.

 

[tamu91]

So, at that rate it will only take another 544 weeks to sell out.

but seriously, how many more DVC resorts before the DVC market is totally saturated

 

[Drewferin]

For the sake of comparision lets look at the first month of sales (Granted the economy was different for CC and Poly):

Riviera sold 59,246 points
Copper Creek sold 51,675 points
Polynesian sold 61,050 points

 

[crvetter]

It certainly is selling slower than Copper Creek and even Aulani. I imagine a lot has to do with it not being complete and there not being any real opinion on it yet. Also, the Skyliner is untested/unproven.

I would think it's also hurting (and not quite as pushed) as CCV is right now. Typically the older resort has sold better than the new resort when two active WDW properties were being sold at the same time. Similar issues existed with CCV when it was first put up where PVB was outselling by a large margin

 

[TexasChick123]

Also remember, there used to be minimum buy-ins of 160 points for quite some time. That hugely affects the sales data from different resorts. You have to take into account all of the information which would be better served when comparing Riviera or Copper Creek to BLT or SSR. They cost less per point back then, and they had much higher minimum buy-ins. To buy 160 Riviera Points costs $30,800. To buy 160 BLT points cost $17,920. That's a difference of $12,880 (no small amount). Both of these numbers do not include incentives. I know there is inflation, but it has already been proven that DVC prices are increasing at a rate much greater than inflation. You couldn't even purchase 100 Riviera points for the cost of 160 BLT points back in the day.

 

[skippytx]

So all said and done they'll sell a Billion dollars worth of points at Riviera. No way that hotel cost a Billion. DVC profit margin must be excellent. I don't think Disney breaks DVC out in it's filings do they? I mean yeah they have to tie up a bunch of capital for a couple years, but still.

 

[Wakey]

Yes the profit is extraordinary. I think the bungalows / cabins bring in significantly more per square foot than the primest of prime real estate in NYC, London or Paris- not bad for land which is a swamp / grove bought for pennies. And it's only on a 50 year lease before they get it back to start again. What a business.
Will be interesting to see if the resale restrictions will harm sales.

 

[The Jackal]

So, at that rate it will only take another 544 weeks to sell out.

To be fair they are still selling CCV and Aulani right now. They will still be selling Aulani when they start selling Reflections too and probably a resort or two after it.

 

[linzjane88]

but seriously, how many more DVC resorts before the DVC market is totally saturated

It's Disney. I'm pretty sure there is no ceiling!

 

[Bruin_mouse]

Didn’t Riviera go on sale to the general public on April 15th? Seems a bit early to stick a fork in Riviera sales.

 

[DebbieB]

Why would someone buy 1,235 in one contract. They should have split it into smaller contracts, especially with the resale restrictions. I regret I didn’t split up my 250. I could have sold off part and bought VGC points.

 

[Bruin_mouse]

Why would someone buy 1,235 in one contract. They should have split it into smaller contracts, especially with the resale restrictions. I regret I didn’t split up my 250. I could have sold off part and bought VGC points.

I think that contract as a guaranteed week contract for a grand villa in week 51. I don’t think it could be split up but I could be wrong.

 

[DebbieB]

I think that contract as a guaranteed week contract for a grand villa in week 51. I don’t think it could be split up but I could be wrong.

That makes sense. Cool way to spend Christmas week each year.

 

[vint43]

Reading many posts on this board you would have thought they would have only sold one contract to a Disney relative by now given how terrible DVC has become and how evil Disney is as a company.

Any honest look at the data would say they are doing just fine at this point.

Only time will tell if that holds.

Disney is not in a “risk free” business. They can screw up. I think it is important to hold them accountable as a customer.

However, as a DVC member and shareholder, I stop short of rooting for them to fail.

 

[Buzzw0rthy]

I agree. After tons of research before we bought in, we realized the printing press that DVC is. We understand that Disney is doing this to make money and by all measures appear to be very successful at it. After the contract cleared my next move was to my online brokerage account to pick up some shares of the mouse! I figure I should enjoy our vacations and hope to benefit from Disneys future as well.

 

[skier_pete]

So all said and done they'll sell a Billion dollars worth of points at Riviera. No way that hotel cost a Billion. DVC profit margin must be excellent. I don't think Disney breaks DVC out in it's filings do they? I mean yeah they have to tie up a bunch of capital for a couple years, but still.

Not only is the profit a Billion dollars, there is ZERO operating expense. The operating expenses are all absorbed by the members. Does anyone wonder why they've built one hotel in the last 15 years but 8 DVC sites? No surprise on the fixed weeks, people know where that's at. (Though whoever bought a fixed week for Christmas week seems a little excessive - those weeks rarely go quickly. Maybe they are concerned about New Year's Eve? Might be a popular resort for that.)

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Didn’t Riviera go on sale to the general public on April 15th? Seems a bit early to stick a fork in Riviera sales.

I think it's comparable to CCV which also went on sale in a similar time of the month (again, at least I think it did). So a decent comparison. I don't recall about PVB which started sales quite late in the process and very close to opening. That might have gone on sale a week earlier on the month it began?

Why would someone buy 1,235 in one contract. They should have split it into smaller contracts, especially with the resale restrictions. I regret I didn’t split up my 250. I could have sold off part and bought VGC points.

I'd definitely have recommended splitting the contract, getting incentives and just booking the week as normal. If a Christmas week in a GV I'd say that's a reservation you'd almost certainly never not get. Since they don't do incentives on guaranteed weeks we know it was a single purchase approaching almost 1/4 of a million dollars.! Yeah, they'll hate selling that if they ever decide to. Or perhaps 1/4 of a million dollars is pocket change and it doesn't matter.

 

[jarestel]

However, as a DVC member and shareholder, I stop short of rooting for them to fail.

I do agree that there seems to be a subset of posters on any DRR thread that are openly rooting for DRR to fail so they can blame it on the nefarious resale restrictions. But it's not likely that DRR will fail and it's quite likely that the next round of resale restrictions will make the current ones seem benign by comparison. Now that DVD has implemented restrictions that actually change how the "club" operates, based on direct or resale status, I think the genie is out of the bottle.