AKV-Jambo at 7 months (trying to make a purchase decision)

Discussion in 'Purchasing DVC' started by Lesley Wake, Dec 7, 2018.

  1. Lesley Wake

    Lesley Wake May the force be with you!

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    I am currently nearing the end of my first stay using rented DVC points. I typically travel solo and the studios have been great. I stayed in AKV-Jambo, Boardwalk, and Copper Creek. AKV is definitely my favorite, but I prefer Jambo House over Kidani with the grand lobby. Copper creek has been fine but overall I’m not in love with it.

    I know AKV-Kidani is usually always available at the 7 month mark. What about Jambo? I know that varies based on time of the year, etc, but just trying to get an idea of whether I should buy one of the CCV contracts with the plan to more often not stay at CC, or if I should buy AKV resale from Disney, or if I should buy AKV resale from an individual (I know there is a difference for member benefits, so that is also under consideration).
     
  2. DaveNan

    DaveNan Mouseketeer

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    Last edited: Dec 7, 2018
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    DIS Sponsor Disney Vacation Club Resales www.dvcstore.com


  4. _auroraborealis_

    _auroraborealis_ I like marshmallows. And adult beverages.

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  5. Lesley Wake

    Lesley Wake May the force be with you!

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    Thanks guys! Super helpful!

    I don’t think I’d ever count on a Value-those seen to be like unicorns. Besides, I loved my partial savanaha view, I’d probably even go with a full savanaha view for booking!
     
  6. kniquy

    kniquy DIS Veteran

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    We own AKL and booked a trip for the week after thanksgiving (just came home ☹️). We only had enough points for a standard room so I made sure to be online exactly at the 11 month mark to book a Jambo standard studio. I checked a week later to see what the availability was and there were already days not available for that room. Of course kidani still had rooms. This is the highest/busiest DVC time so everything gets booked up much quicker. Now other times of the year availability will be much easier but typically late September through first week on January especially for studios - you should book at 11 months.
    In your situation and first just getting into the DVC system I would save yourself a ton on $$ and go with an AKL resale.
     
  7. sndral

    sndral DIS Veteran

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    The other factor affecting Jambo’s studio availability is that all of the Jambo 2 br.s are lock offs - a 1 br. + studio - so not only are the Jambo studios booked by people wanting studios but anyone booking a 2 br. will also be removing a studio from inventory.
    You may find that in the future your interest in staying at Kidani increases, the walk between the 2 resorts isn’t very far, plus the shuttle bus between them runs non stop & at Kidani there are villas on all the floors making for more eye level animal viewing unlike Jambo which only has villas on the 5th & 6th floors.
     
  8. ziravan

    ziravan Welcome Home

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    CCV is ok to buy new if you really want to stay there.

    I would not pay anywhere close to $200/point to take a shot at a 7 month window that gets harder to book every year.

    If you buy CCV, you’re buying a 50 year contract. It doesn’t really matter how the 7 month window is actually working today.

    How will it work in 5 years?

    10?

    Our best evidence is that the 7 month window has become more difficult over the past few years, and that difficulty is progressing rapidly over time, especially for studios. I would not count on the 7 month window for anything I was spending healthy 5 figures to buy.

    The best advice given on this forum, and routinely so, is buy where you want to stay.

    Don’t buy CCV unless you’re in love with CCV.
     
    Last edited: Dec 8, 2018
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  9. ziravan

    ziravan Welcome Home

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    We bought Poly direct because we love Poly. It’s the ONLY reason to buy direct. I bought an AKV resale because I wanted to take a shot at Value and Concierge from time to time. And our first contract was a resale BCV contract.

    All allow us to book where we really want to stay at 11 months.

    Let’s say you want 150 points and you need 75 for “perks” to be direct.

    Option #1: 150 x $182 - $1000 new member promotion + $300 closing =

    $26,600 for 150 CCV points.


    Or

    Option #2: Buy 100 points at AKV resale at $110 and then use already being a member to add on 75 points to get perks plus $500 to close the resale and $300 to close the direct contract =

    $24,625 for 175 AKV points qualified for perks with 75 of them being direct.

    ($21,875 apples to apples 150 points)

    Or

    Option #3: 200 AKV resale no perks =

    $22,500 for 200 AKV points no perks all resale @$110/point.

    ($17,000 apples to apples 150 points. Apples to apples almost 10 grand cheaper.)
     
    Last edited: Dec 8, 2018
  10. ziravan

    ziravan Welcome Home

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    To finish the comparison if you bought CCV you’d buy 50 years of points.

    A not-stripped (2019 points haven’t been used) AKV contract that expires in 2057 would be 38 years of points.

    Option #1 above is 7,500 points over life of contract at a cost of $26,600 or $3.55/point.

    Option #2 would be 6,650 points over life of contract at $3.70/point life of contract.

    This calculation levels the length of contract playing field to give a direct comparison.

    So, for a 150 point vacation at AKV booked in Jambo at 11 months without concern for the 7 month window, and with “direct perks”, you’d pay $22.50 more for that one annual trip to own AKV over CCV.

    Or, Option #3 above: $2.93/point to own 200 AKV all resale points.
     
    Last edited: Dec 8, 2018
  11. ziravan

    ziravan Welcome Home

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    One final consideration:

    Buy two 100 point contracts at different resorts, one resale and one direct.

    Then you have 2 home window resorts. If you bank and borrow on an annual trip, then you’d have 200 points at home resort A one year, and 200 at resort B the next. Rinse. Repeat.

    CCV should only be one of those resorts if you love it there.

    I’d consider waiting to see what Riviera looks like. It will probably go on sale in just a few months.

    100 Riviera points direct and 100 AKV points resale might be a very awesome package of points to have. Certainly, it’d be a better mix than CCV points to trade at 7 months because you’re “meh” to CCV.
     
  12. E2ME2

    E2ME2 ET

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    This is a great link; I love the charts - THANKS Skier-Pete.
    Have they been updated recently?? I am considering a resale purchase at AKV, strictly for the 11-month advantage on the Value Studios - in January. Based on this latest chart; January is one of the few times where these are "mostly" available. I'd just like to see if that's still current data before I buy AKV. THANKS! :darth:
     
  13. ziravan

    ziravan Welcome Home

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    So long as you’re not trying to book the race weekend, you should be OK. Even if the rooms are all being walked, except for the race weekend there wouldn’t be a consensus date that they’re being walked into and so, you should be able to piece together something in the wake.

    And that’s assuming there’s not something right at 8am at 11 months.

    That said, I’d always assume that value and concierge have some “luck” factor to book, even if you’re creating your own luck. That way, you aren’t disappointed.

    I bought 100 AKV points for the same purpose, to take a shot a value and concierge from time to time. But. Even if I fail to secure one of those rooms, it’s enough points to make a stay at AKV work.
     
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  14. _auroraborealis_

    _auroraborealis_ I like marshmallows. And adult beverages.

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    The whole of that chart is a point-in-time view. I'd assume all studio types get harder every year, all seasons.
     
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  15. DaveNan

    DaveNan Mouseketeer

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    Just so you know, there are 10 dedicate value studios and an additional 8 studios that are part of lock-off 2 BR. So any given night there are up to 18 studios, 10 1 BR, 0 2BR or 10 studios, 0 1BR, 8 2BR. That is it!!!!
    So you and thousands of AKV owners in both Jambo and Kidani are trying to get those 18 golden tickets. (Concierge only has 5 lockoffs that's it!!)

    Most of them are grabbed early and walked back for months. That literally means people with Spring break or Princess marathon plans will be booking in January and pushing the reservation back every so often (one day less than the length of the reservation). That is why the 11 month day is always booked, but 10 months and 28 days may be open (but is was full 2 days earlier). It is a mad rush at 8am every day!!! Don't bank on value!!!
     
    Last edited: Dec 9, 2018
  16. KAT4DISNEY

    KAT4DISNEY Glad to be a test subject

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    Yep! And that was the trend from the first time those charts were done compared to when they were updated. I also think that will just continue.
     
  17. drusba

    drusba I went to Iowa once, and it was closed.

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    Read that chart again, it said "mostly" for first half of Jan and "spotty" for second half. Do not purchase AKV with the plan to usually get value studios (or 2BRs). Value studios (and thus 2BRs because they are all lock-offs) can have difficulties at 11 months out any time of the year. Also, understand that "mostly" on the chart you referenced can mean no more than the simple majority of days. what can often happen in Jan is that you can still be blocked out at 11 months out just depending on arrival day. Here is what happened for January 2018 for value studios/2BRs when booking in Feb 2017:

    Jan 1: disappeared before 11 months out
    Jan 2 and 3: were open at 11 months for enough time to get one
    Jan 4 and 5: disappeared right at 8 a.m. on Feb 4
    Jan 6: disappeared right at 8 a.m. 11 months out
    Jan 7, 8, 9, 10: open at 11 months out for enough time to get one
    Jan 11: disappeared right at 8 a.m. at 11 months out.
    Jan 12 and 13: were open at 11 months out for enough time to get one.
    Jan 14 and 15: disappeared right at 8 a.m. on Feb 14
    Jan 16: open for enough time at 11 months out to get one.
    Jan 17: disappeared right at 8 a.m. at 11 months out
    Jan 18, 19: were open at 11 months out for enough time to get one.
    Jan 20: disappeared right at 8 a.m. at 11 months out
    Jan 21, 22, and 23: disappeared right at 8 a.m. on Feb 21.
    Jan 24 and 25: disappeared right at 8 a.m. on Feb 24.
    Jan 26: open at 8 a.m. at 11 months out enough time to get one.
    Jan 27, 28: disappeared right at 8 a.m. 11 month out
    Jan 29, 30, 31: disappeared right at 8 a.m. on March 1 (the 11 month window for all three days)

    As you will notice from the above, the studios were "mostly" open at 11 months out for Jan 1-15, 2018, as the term "mostly" is used in the chart, because 8 of the 15 nights were open, and Jan 16-31 was "spotty," as mentioned in the chart, because only 4 of the 16 nights were open. You might also notice that popular start dates, Sat and Sun, were each open only once during Jan at 11 months out for enough time to safely get a value studio during Jan. If there is little to no flexibility in the arrival date you might need, you should usually assume your chances of getting a value studio or 2BR are low at 11 months out. Wait list can sometimes help and result in getting what you want, but do you really want to make a major timeshare purchase where getting what you want will usually depend on the luck of a wait list?
     
    Last edited: Dec 10, 2018
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  18. zavandor

    zavandor DIS Veteran

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    This year it will probably be worst. With the self fulflling profecy about the need of walking value studios, any day when a studios is open at the beginning of the month will begin a starting point for anyone wanting to walk to MLK week end or even as far as presidents week. Picking up days after the walkers will pass could be a viable strategy but it will require a lot of effort.
     
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  19. KAT4DISNEY

    KAT4DISNEY Glad to be a test subject

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    Yep - it will only grow as walking is touted as a necessity.

    And Values saw a point decrease for 2019 making them even more attractive than they've ever been. IMO don't buy AKV with the plan to book Values. If you get them then it's a nice bonus but at least buy to book Standard views.
     
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  20. E2ME2

    E2ME2 ET

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    WOW -
    You guys have done a lot of thinking, and I appreciate all the experience/comments shared.
    Part of me thinks that I'm being nudged to not go for it so as to lessen the competition for the Golden Tickets :rotfl2:
    The other parts of me, however, are thinking this might be very viable for the way I plan to use it. I can pretty safely say that each February 1st I would be lurking to book whatever is available and, assuming the "walkers" will often be moving towards race week a day at a time, I could pick up most of Jan 1- Jan 15, which is our goal every year. Even if I only get partial weeks, I can fill in those days with my SSR points, which typically have no problems booking any time in January, and with some Sat/Sun dates in an SPG hotel {preferably SWOLPHIN}, as we do now :goodvibes (assuming my SPG points continue to rack up).
    I'm encouraged!:darth:
     
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  21. ziravan

    ziravan Welcome Home

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    When it comes to getting a “golden ticket”, knowledge is power.

    Just reading this thread and understanding its import probably places you in the 2 percent bracket on understanding how these rooms book out and playing that to your advantage to leverage actual success in booking one of the rooms.

    So long as you understand that there are “playing the odds” involved and by necessity, if knowledge gives you a 70% probability of booking a room then there’s a 30% probability of failure, you’re good to go.

    I bought AKV to take a shot. I won’t be disappointed about, “What do you mean I can’t book concierge studios at 11 months anytime I want?!?”
     
    Last edited: Dec 10, 2018
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