8/31 Wonder Cruisers - Storm Now Headed To Bahamas

[NJBILL]

Hopefully this storm will be out of the way before we sail
000
WTNT44 KNHC 221444
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2003

HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE
DEPRESSION IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. THERE IS A
WELL-DEFINED CLOUD BAND TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER AND THE
OUTFLOW IS ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE WEST. IT APPEARS
THAT THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT WESTERLY SHEAR AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BUT NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO SIGNIFICANTLY
DISRUPT DEVELOPMENT. THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
BEFORE LANDFALL OVER HISPANIOLA...WHERE SOME WEAKENING IS
ANTICIPATED DUE TO HIGH TERRAIN. THEREAFTER...STRENGHTENING IS
EXPECTED ONCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS BACK OVER WATER BETWEEN
CUBA...THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA WHERE THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS
FORECAST TO BE VERY FAVORABLE. THIS FORECAST ASSUMES THAT THE
CYCLONE WILL NOT BE COMPLETELY DESTROYED OVER LAND.

CURRENTLY...THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 10 KNOTS
STEERED BY A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THIS GENERAL
TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS.
HOWEVER...STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN BEYOND 3 DAYS AS
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS BY TO THE NORTH AND BREAKS DOWN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS SCENARIO IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MOST OF THE
TRACK GUIDANCE. THE NOGAPS CHANGED ITS TUNE AND IS THE ONLY MODEL
MOVING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD OVER
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES. LET'S SEE WHAT
HAPPENS IN THE NEXT 12Z MODEL RUNS.

AN AIR FORCE PLANE WILL BE IN THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
DETERMINE THE STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM.

FORECASTER AVILA/MOLLEDA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/1500Z 16.4N 68.6W 30 KT
12HR VT 23/0000Z 17.2N 70.0W 35 KT
24HR VT 23/1200Z 18.5N 72.0W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 24/0000Z 20.0N 74.0W 35 KT...OVER WATER
48HR VT 24/1200Z 21.5N 75.5W 40 KT
72HR VT 25/1200Z 23.5N 77.5W 45 KT
96HR VT 26/1200Z 24.5N 78.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 27/1200Z 25.5N 80.0W 60 KT




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[Talking Hands]

Hope it won't affect the 8/24 cruisers since I am on that cruise.

 

[NJBILL]

The last storm track from NOAA has it over the Bahamas on Tues 26th. Check those links at the bottom of the post

 

[Miss Jasmine]

Yeah, it looks like this one will be slowing down.

STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN BEYOND 3 DAYS AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS BY TO THE NORTH AND BREAKS DOWN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.

 

[tomandlyn]

I am doing a lot of praying that it will not be a rough cruise but just in case, I have bought Bonine for myself and DH. My DS is 6 years old and I am not sure what the best route is for him. Any suggestions on the best prevention for a 6 year old?

 

[carallard]

We cruised on the Magic September 12th, day after the tragedy, top that off by going directly through a large tropical storm. Onboard it wasn't bad and I am prone to seasickness. Didn't know how bad the storm was untill we returned home to downed trees and no power.

I think the storm should be well past by our cruise Sunday, Bill. Just hope the Wonder leaving Thursday fairs well.