We were able to get 4 nights at BLT in a lake view studio back in late October 2011 using the waitlist. When I checked at 7 months, there was no availability, but I think the waitlist came through within 7 or 8 weeks. It may be more difficult if Columbus Day weekend is part of your stay. I would think your chances would be best at BLT>poly>WL>GF. If nothing is available when your window opens, you could WL BLT-LV and a poly studio. I think BLT standard and MK view are less likely to come through, given there are significantly fewer of those rooms and they are more desirable to owners.