2042

[swrdfghtr]

So, out of curiosity, what are Disney's options in ~40 years when the lease on everyplace but Saratoga Springs is up?

Do they yank everyone's club memberships, demolish the resorts, and call it quits?

Do they just renew everyone for another ~50 years?

Do they make us pay $$$$ to stay in the club?

I realize nobody can predict exactly what they might choose to do, and that DVC's structure in this regard is a bit unusual--and designed largely to prevent anyone but Disney from being a landowner in WDW--but I'm curious if anyon has any ideas on the possibilities.

Thanks!

 

[spiceycat]

this has been discussed before - most members think that DVC will give current member first offer.

I personally think it depends upon the economy - if WDW is not having trouble filling their current rooms - then I think BCV, VWL and BWV will become part of the hotel system - where WDW can charge a very big price for these resorts for a one night stay.

OKW - who knows???? there is enough room here for another water park????

if the economy is bad for WDW and they are having trouble filling their rooms (like 2001, 2002 and most of 2003) - then I think they will definite made an offer to current DVC members.

 

[B'rer Karen]

I think Disney will just take control of the DVC resorts and fold them in with all of their other hotels.

 

[swrdfghtr]

You could be totally right and that's a likelier scenario than demolition <grin>. But it does seem odd from a business perspective.

I mean, I get what you're saying - why settle for DVC when those rooms could go for $$$$ on the cash market?

But the DVC system was created during a boom era in the early 90s, and a lot of the DVC conversions (BW, BC, WL) were made during periods when the property had plenty of business. So even though they were doing OK, they plugged away at the DVC thing.

I also "get" that the original plan for DVC was larger than just WDW - Vero and HH, for example, and the proposed property in Newport Beach that eventually became a Marriott timeshare.

Frankly, there's some business sense in leaving the DVC properties to DVC members, perhaps for a small "re-up" fee. After all, it's guaranteed admission sales, food and beverage, retail, etc. That's nice steady income that cash-paying doesn't guarantee, subject as it is to the whims of the traveling public.

I'd also love to see DVC open a resort in CA - maybe if CA gets a Disney ship and starts to become more of a "resort" location, that'll make sense to someone. DVC members have to represent some kind of semi-reliable income stream that'd definitely be a shame to lose! After all, if 2042 rolls around and business is good - that doesn't mean it'll stay that way forever. DVC members will tend to keep coming back just because they can, which'll at least help in other revenue areas, if not rooms per se.

I live in Vegas, where room-nights are something we almost give away for free in order to get other revenue - alcohol, shows, shopping, gambling, and so on. DVC could potentially be a similar investment for Disney - real estate that at least pays for itself and keeps guests coming in almost no matter what.

Time will tell... I'll certainly be too old to care when it does, though!

Originally posted by spiceycat
this has been discussed before - most members think that DVC will give current member first offer.

I personally think it depends upon the economy - if WDW is not having trouble filling their current rooms - then I think BCV, VWL and BWV will become part of the hotel system - where WDW can charge a very big price for these resorts for a one night stay.

OKW - who knows???? there is enough room here for another water park????

if the economy is bad for WDW and they are having trouble filling their rooms (like 2001, 2002 and most of 2003) - then I think they will definite made an offer to current DVC members.

 

[spiceycat]

If vb and HH had sold like they thought in the 5 to 7 year plan (like Marriott do) - then yes - I think they would have renewed all the DVC resorts - but they didn't.

they told longer to sale

- but as you said I will be too old in 2042 to care - if I am even still around - which is why SSR does not tempt me to add on.

 

[Dean]

There really are a number of questions here. Here's my take on them.

• Will DVC offer extensions to current owners that expire in 2042? Personally I doubt very seriously they will. They would need a large percent (like 80% or better) to extend in order for this to be viable and would actually need this done many years in advance. They'd be looking at an extension of around 12 years, not another 50. Ask yourself what it would take to get you to pay money NOW or soon to extend. My take is that they’d have to offer it to me at no more than $5-7 per point to even get me to consider an extension unless there were other benefits. Remember that each and every extension would need a new deed.
• Will the current DVC resorts be valuable in 38 years? Personally I’d say yes but would be afraid the upkeep at some of the resorts would be difficult, especially at OKW and HH. So yearly fees might be a lot as well.
• What is the benefit to the current members? In almost all cases, I’d say to people other than the current members like children or other younger relatives.
• How will DVC wind it down either in 2042 and/or 2054? DVC has not tipped their hand in this area. I know there are those that think Disney will just let the resorts wind down in the last year, 2042, and let the members casually use up their remaining points. I think this is a very unrealistic view and certainly not in keeping with what I’ve seen out of Disney. When it does wind down, it is clear there will NOT be enough points for EVERYONE to get all points for their 2041 use year. This means that their must be some way to divide them. Options would include a lottery, proration or a free for all with several possible variations. My guess is a proration. DVC will also likely suspend resort exchanges in and out of any resort not expiring at the same time (SSR, etc) and will likely suspend banking that last couple of years. I’d suspect they will continue to allow borrowing up until the bitter end with no 2042 use year points.
• Once the time ends, what will Disney do with the properties? My guess is they will doze OKW and possibly all DVC resorts. If additional resorts are viable, they may start fresh from the ground up. If not, I suspect they will try to bilk us the last few years to get the properties in shape at our expense.

 

[colleen costello]

Dean, as always your post was informative and thoughtful. But for some reason it depressed the heck out of me! Nothing depresses me like contemplating 2042... Somehow makes me feel my mortality!

 

[Nick@ VB+OKW]

Originally posted by spiceycat
if I am even still around - which is why SSR does not tempt me to add on.

.........I hope we are around.

 

[Dean]

Originally posted by colleen costello
Dean, as always your post was informative and thoughtful. But for some reason it depressed the heck out of me! Nothing depresses me like contemplating 2042... Somehow makes me feel my mortality!

Sorry, obviously not my intention. Seeing people my age, 45, start to drop around me, including one of my best friends growing up just the other day; has made me try to "have it all". I work hard but try to do family and fun things as much as possible. Unfortunately there's not enough time and money to do all I want. Well if only they'd pay me what I thought I was worth, I'd have it all. LOL.

 

[d-r]

Honestly, I don't think they have a very concrete plan - I think the plan is to let whoever is around working at Disney in 40 years figure it out then.

*BUT* I wouldn't be surprised if it was something like - "You are one of our most special guests, because your parents made sure you could always come enjoy the magic through the disney vacation club - now that your parents' disney vacation club points are going back in to the disney vault, don't miss this special limited time opportunity to bring the disney vacation club magic that you knew growing up to your own family - share the sort of magical memories that were a part of your childhood with your own child now - only $19,583 dollars a point, including - for a very limited time - your very own My Pal Mickey Android Mousekeeper."

 

[bobbiwoz]

Gosh, in 2042, our sons will be in their 60's. That's why, although we did buy into DVC late, we're happy we did, and have enjoyed one visit so far, with 3 planned for this year.

Whatever Disney does in 2042, it's outa my hands, but yes, d-r, they could offer that opportunity to our grandkids! I wonder if $19,583 a point will seem like a bargain. Remember ice cream cones used to cost a nickel, and coffee 10 cents with refills!

Bobbi

 

[RumpleMom]

"If you believe in magic, you belong" , WDW the happiest place on Earth, and own a piece of the magic. Yep, they got me hook, line and sinker. I'm in with both feet. My family has had wonderful magical moments there. Why wouldn't my kids want to continue this with the grandkids?

IMHO I think Disney will do a massive buy back of points through ROFR, then resell them with an extension past 2042. I have no prediction when this might occur or what the extension might be, but I think they will continue their successful vacation club.

 

[colleen costello]

I hope I am here to see what they decide to do... I tell my hubby we'll live in Florida by then, and he can push me around in my wheelchair to see Mickey!