“Official” 2018 Mickey’s Not-So-Scary Halloween Party – Strategy and Itinerary Thread

[FoxC63]

We got ours at Target, they were the junk food brand. I haven't washed them yet, but they seem like nice quality.

I should go check them out. He really needs a set... like NOW! Thanks for the tip!

 

[FoxC63]

NEWS

Touring Plans Least Crowded MNSSHP 2018 has been released. Please note these are predictions for the RIDES as stated by them:

"Our wait times only include attractions−not character meet and greets, special shows, or parades. The characters, in particular, often have long lines, especially for rare characters like the Seven Dwarfs. Regardless of which party you attend, some of the character lines will be long. If those are a must-do, do them as early in the evening as possible."

Link: https://blog.touringplans.com/2018/05/30/least-crowded-mickeys-not-so-scary-halloween-party-of-2018/

And a big thumbs up to @TISHLOVESDISNEY for the link!

I'm sure many here are Touring Plans enthusiasts, I for one have never paid for their services nor do I frequent their site as often as I do with others. I don't know how they come up with their predictions but it's understandable how they were off in 2017, I mean how can they predict the severe weather WDW encountered during the parties and there were quite a few of them. So, let's dig in...



Tuesday, Aug 29th: Woof! Huge mistake there. Also note, there weren't very many posts from fellow DIS'ers who attended on this date however, if you look back on the [URL="https://www.disboards.com/threads/official-2017-mnsshp-guest-list-thread-read-1st-post-for-posting-rules.3596040/"]2017 MNSSHP Guest List Thread [/URL]it's kind of long and we're just one site of many.
Friday, Sept. 1st: Rides ranked #5? What was reported was severe thunder storms, lightening and heavy rain. I believe some rides closed down for a short time as well. Disney did their magic and "some" got refunds as seen in [URL="https://www.disboards.com/threads/%E2%80%9Cofficial%E2%80%9D-2018-mickey%E2%80%99s-not-so-scary-halloween-party-%E2%80%93-strategy-and-itinerary-thread.3672288/page-27#post-59122759"]Post #533[/URL]. Guests left the park so how is the "Actual Measured Rank" at #5? I don't understand.
Sunday, Sept. 12th: Again, there was no way TP could have predicted the out come of Hurricane Irma and it's devastation in Florida but the Guest List thread made it very clear, this was going to be a low attendance party.
Thursday, Sept 7th: TP was spot on despite the lite rain and low crowds as reported on [URL="https://www.disboards.com/threads/official-2017-mickeys-not-so-scary-halloween-party-boo-to-you.3580223/page-381#post-58170252"]Post #7607[/URL].
Sunday, Sept. 10th: TP predicted #5 and we have only 4 posts on the Guest List thread and this is prior to Hurricane Irma knowledge. I think it would have ranked #2 if Irma did not happen at all.

For what it's worth, I am not bashing this company in anyway. It's a great resource and service they provide free of charge, you can't beat that! I just think having a great plan is really the way to go as well as understanding how long attractions, meet & greets etc can take no matter what the crowd level's are.

They have my party date October 30th ranked 21 out of 34, this is good news as that's my "actual" birthday and I'm looking forward to the celebration!

 

[Haley R]

NEWS

Touring Plans Least Crowded MNSSHP 2018 has been released. Please note these are predictions for the RIDES as stated by them:

"Our wait times only include attractions−not character meet and greets, special shows, or parades. The characters, in particular, often have long lines, especially for rare characters like the Seven Dwarfs. Regardless of which party you attend, some of the character lines will be long. If those are a must-do, do them as early in the evening as possible."

Link: https://blog.touringplans.com/2018/05/30/least-crowded-mickeys-not-so-scary-halloween-party-of-2018/

And a big thumbs up to @TISHLOVESDISNEY for the link!

I'm sure many here are Touring Plans enthusiasts, I for one have never paid for their services nor do I frequent their site as often as I do with others. I don't know how they come up with their predictions but it's understandable how they were off in 2017, I mean how can they predict the severe weather WDW encountered during the parties and there were quite a few of them. So, let's dig in...

View attachment 326031

Tuesday, Aug 29th: Woof! Huge mistake there. Also note, there weren't very many posts from fellow DIS'ers who attended on this date however, if you look back on the 2017 MNSSHP Guest List Thread it's kind of long and we're just one site of many.
Friday, Sept. 1st: Rides ranked #5? What was reported was severe thunder storms, lightening and heavy rain. I believe some rides closed down for a short time as well. Disney did their magic and "some" got refunds as seen in Post #533. Guests left the park so how is the "Actual Measured Rank" at #5? I don't understand.
Sunday, Sept. 12th: Again, there was no way TP could have predicted the out come of Hurricane Irma and it's devastation in Florida but the Guest List thread made it very clear, this was going to be a low attendance party.
Thursday, Sept 7th: TP was spot on despite the lite rain and low crowds as reported on Post #7607.
Sunday, Sept. 10th: TP predicted #5 and we have only 4 posts on the Guest List thread and this is prior to Hurricane Irma knowledge. I think it would have ranked #2 if Irma did not happen at all.

For what it's worth, I am not bashing this company in anyway. It's a great resource and service they provide free of charge, you can't beat that! I just think having a great plan is really the way to go as well as understanding how long attractions, meet & greets etc can take no matter what the crowd level's are.

They have my party date October 30th ranked 21 out of 34, this is good news as that's my "actual" birthday and I'm looking forward to the celebration!

Mine are ranked #20 and #24.

 

[FoxC63]

Mine are ranked #20 and #24.

Yep! I would do as much as you can on the #20 party so #24 is more comfortable and easy flowing.

 

[Haley R]

Yep! I would do as much as you can on the #20 party so #24 is more comfortable and easy flowing.

I'm thinking do the dessert party on #24. We aren't 100% committed to the dessert party, but I think that is when we would do it.

 

[anomamatt]

Great summary, @FoxC63. But what I want to know from the touring plans article, is what happened to August 25th, 2017? Touring plans had it as #4 least crowded and it was PACKED. It was the first party of 2017 and was sold out. Here was their 2017 prediction article: https://blog.touringplans.com/2017/05/12/find-least-crowded-halloween-party-2017/. Maybe they just missed this date by accident?

 

[FoxC63]

Great summary, @FoxC63. But what I want to know from the touring plans article, is what happened to August 25th, 2017? Touring plans had it as #4 least crowded and it was PACKED. It was the first party of 2017 and was sold out. Here was their 2017 prediction article: https://blog.touringplans.com/2017/05/12/find-least-crowded-halloween-party-2017/. Maybe they just missed this date by accident?

This whole prediction based theory or methodology is regarding the rides/attractions not on how many people attend the party. I think that's what is confusing some. They see the number and think they're good to go.

On the August 25th party it was media night, the first night for CM, Military and AP discounts, another big factor is summer tourists as Halloween Parties in August are not common. Certain parts of MK like Fantasyland and the hub are always crowded because that's where we all migrate to that lends to the feeling of being overly crowded. What's very important to remember on this day there were brief showers not down pours, rides were not compromised.

EDIT: I just wanted to acknowledge the fact that every year Disney get's busier and the parties are not off limits.

 

[FoxC63]

I'm thinking do the dessert party on #24. We aren't 100% committed to the dessert party, but I think that is when we would do it.

Sounds like a great plan!

 

[FoxC63]

Great summary, @FoxC63. But what I want to know from the touring plans article, is what happened to August 25th, 2017? Touring plans had it as #4 least crowded and it was PACKED. It was the first party of 2017 and was sold out. Here was their 2017 prediction article: https://blog.touringplans.com/2017/05/12/find-least-crowded-halloween-party-2017/. Maybe they just missed this date by accident?

Another thing to note on Aug 25th which was "sold out" how it ranked #10 on the "Actual Measured Rank" and not higher like on any given sold out party including Oct 31st? This year as well as in the past TP has Halloween night on the bottom of the totem pole. They go on to state "Crowds will be heavy for character meets and parades." well, how is that any different on any sold out night? Again, I'm not bashing just unsure on how they come up with their predictions. Anyone got extra salt?

 

[Haley R]

Another thing to note on Aug 25th which was "sold out" how it ranked #10 on the "Actual Measured Rank" and not higher like on any given sold out party including Oct 31st? This year as well as in the past TP has Halloween night on the bottom of the totem pole. They go on to state "Crowds will be heavy for character meets and parades." well, how is that any different on any sold out night? Again, I'm not bashing just unsure on how they come up with their predictions. Anyone got extra salt?

I'm just going in with the mindset that it will be October and it will be busy lol

 

[dachsie]

My party is ranked #4. Hope they are correct

 

[FoxC63]

I'm just going in with the mindset that it will be October and it will be busy lol

It will be "Crowds will be heavy for character meets and parades." but things will even out later in the evening. And those popular rides we love so much will be easy peasy. You and yours are going to have a wonderful time.

 

[FoxC63]

My party is ranked #4. Hope they are correct

I'm not sure how their ride predictions factor into your itinerary, currently you have FP's for all your rides. You should be good to go provided Disney allows us to make FP's.

Sept 25 3 adults / Self, nephew, his wife

3:30-4:15 bypass for photos, map, bags
4:15-4:35 ? – Schedule FP for 3:30-4:30
4:40-5:00 FP HM – Schedule FP for 4:30-5:30
5:05-5:35 HM dessert snack, HM Magic Shot
5:40-6:00 FP Pooh Ride – Schedule FP for 5:30-6
6:05–7:15 Pooh and gang
Tag Team: You have one hour/Line up for Popcorn bucket at 6:45 if interested, lines did form.
7:20-8:00 Donald & Daisy
Tag Team: You have 25 minutes +/-
8:05-8:25 Magic Shot
8:30-9:35 BTY Parade in Frontierland
Tag Team: You have 30 minutes
9:40-10:30 HalloWishes
10:35-11:05 Minnie Mouse
11:15-11:45 Mickey Mouse
11:55-12:20 Hocus Pocus
12:30 Headless Horseman Magic Shot

 

[areno79]

My 9/16 party is ranked #15, so middle of the road. I'm okay with that, but somewhat doubtful that the Friday party before my Sunday party is only ranked #5. We'll see.
I'm very strongly considering doing the dessert party if parade viewing is included, which will take up a chunk of time. Other than that, rides aren't a huge concern because we'll be at After Hours later in the week. My main focus will be the parade, fireworks, trick or treating, meeting Jack and Sally (if the line isn't too bad), and getting some fun photopass pics. It'll just be me and DH so much easier to plan for 2 people, I think.

 

[FoxC63]

My 9/16 party is ranked #15, so middle of the road. I'm okay with that, but somewhat doubtful that the Friday party before my Sunday party is only ranked #5. We'll see.
I'm very strongly considering doing the dessert party if parade viewing is included, which will take up a chunk of time. Other than that, rides aren't a huge concern because we'll be at After Hours later in the week. My main focus will be the parade, fireworks, trick or treating, meeting Jack and Sally (if the line isn't too bad), and getting some fun photopass pics. It'll just be me and DH so much easier to plan for 2 people, I think.

Way easier to plan IMO! I find it's a little difficult with a stroller and/or a toddler especially waiting in long lines. Parents should allow more time, understanding a child's stride isn't the same as an adult. Your numbers are not bad at all and I'm glad you're taking it with a grain of salt. Have you compared your dates to the 2018 Guest List thread? I know not everyone uses it but it's a very helpful resource.

 

[areno79]

Way easier to plan IMO! I find it's a little difficult with a stroller and/or a toddler especially waiting in long lines. Parents should allow more time, understanding a child's stride isn't the same as an adult. Your numbers are not bad at all and I'm glad you're taking it with a grain of salt. Have you compared your dates to the 2018 Guest List thread? I know not everyone uses it but it's a very helpful resource.

I have not...I didn't even realize there was a guest list thread.

 

[areno79]

Thanks @FoxC63
I just found the thread and added my info

 

[LucyBC80]

NEWS

Happy HalloWishes Fireworks time is confirmed for 10:15pm

ACK!! I made Cali Grill reservations for 9:10pm for another Halloween night! Since dining alone I don't think I'll take an hour to eat, can I hang out by the bar or will I have to stay on the balcony waiting?

 

[LucyBC80]

NEWS

Touring Plans Least Crowded MNSSHP 2018 has been released. Please note these are predictions for the RIDES as stated by them:

September 30th is 9 out of 34! Not bad, I hope it stays true and my itinerary can be accomplished without much trouble!

 

[Cluelyss]

ACK!! I made Cali Grill reservations for 9:10pm for another Halloween night! Since dining alone I don't think I'll take an hour to eat, can I hang out by the bar or will I have to stay on the balcony waiting?

They pace CG quite nicely, I think you’ll be pleasantly surprised. Out last meal there was nearly 90 minutes and we were seated about 20 minutes late. You may not even be done by the time the fireworks start.