Why are prices going up?

[Sur]

I agree that buying direct at this point is crazy! But, I would argue that buying direct made sense for us in 2009. When we started looking BLT had just come on the market and it was the resort that we wanted. Since BLT had not opened yet, there were no resales available. Also, the difference in price between BLT and other resale properties was less than $20 pp. Add to that the fact that BLT had 50 years of use on it, it made sense to us to pay the extra for BLT. We bought in June of 2009 for $92 pp. In one year the price went up 20%.

This is similar to our reasoning for buying VGF.

 

[ELMC]

Also, the ROFR activity dried up some of the supply & drove up prices as well. The price increase & incentives offered for older resorts in March led to big wait lists for buying direct & drove up resale prices.

I agree with this analysis. My question is, in the absence of these factors in the future, are prices likely to hold? Many think yes, I think no. We'll talk again in two years and see who was right.

 

[NoleFan]

I agree with this analysis. My question is, in the absence of these factors in the future, are prices likely to hold? Many think yes, I think no. We'll talk again in two years and see who was right.

With limited ROFR activity & increased supply, I believe prices will drop but by how much is the question? Prices will fluctuate depending upon whether it is a buyers or sellers market. When will it happen & within what variance will the fluctuation occur?

I think the economy plays a huge role in it all. If the economy is bad, people are more likely to cash out on their timeshare, not vacation (affordability of not just dues but meals, tickets, etc.), more supply & decreased demand (buyer's market) and Disney will not be selling as much direct (waitlists would not be as huge, more incentives for buying direct, perhaps not as many price increases due to decreased demand?).

I think ROFR activity has a big impact on the resale market. Less dramatic effect on direct market (some may choose to go direct to avoid ROFR but I think many will pursue the resale savings regardless). Supply & demand are a huge driving force - everything that effects that will drive the direction of market prices IMO.