TouringPlans Crowd Calendar Mini-Review

[BobearQSI]

TouringPlans Crowd Calendar Mini-Review

So, I've already subscribed to TP and booked my trip based on their predictions, so I'm locked in regardless of their accuracy. This little exercise of mine was purely out of curiosity, because I had some free time, and to help anyone considering them.

Since August 12, 2014, they have published their predictions vs. actual park levels measured after the fact. I went ahead and noted all measured vs. predicted levels on each day since then. Keep in mind, according to their website, their crowd calendar is based solely on wait times for many attractions, rather than something like number of people physically in the park. I took all the info, graphed it, and analyzed it.

Also, I would like to point out, all of the data I used for this analysis is publicly available, and does not require a subscription to access. Every week they post a public blog entry showing their predictions for every day and what they saw for every day.

Here's my observations:

• On average, they underestimate the crowd level by 0.8 for Disneyland, and 0.4 for California Adventure. This number only includes days that they underestimate - days that they overestimated (was less busy than they predicted) are considered a 0, or "got it right."
• Overall, that's not too bad. There are some caveats, though, explained below.
• The accuracy is somewhat erratic. In the last 6 months, there are many days both overestimated and underestimated. Many days jump back and forth from day to day. Any given 7 day period has days underestimated as well as overestimated or even. The only exception I saw was DL at the start of Holiday season, and almost the whole month of July this year.
• They seem to have issues with the 'seasons' of Disneyland (CA is better). In Halloween season last year, they only overestimated by 1 level, and on a handful of days, while they underestimated by 2, 3, and 4 crowd levels quite a few times. Similar trends were seen during Christmas season, and this year’s summer season (Diamond Celebration). The start of Spring Break was underestimated by 3's and 4's, but they did a pretty good job on the rest of it, though.
• They also seem to have issues with holidays. Labor Day was underestimated by 4. Columbus day was underestimated by 2. Veterans Day was on a Tuesday last year, and they underestimated the Monday before by 4, and the day of by 5. Thanksgiving and the day after were underestimated by 2. Christmas and New Years were pretty accurate, but they were predicting 9's and 10's, so not much room to be under.
• The maximum underestimation for DL was a 5 on two days, and for DCA a 4 on just one day.
• There were 6 days underestimated by 4 and 11 days underestimated by 3 for DL, and 12 days underestimated by 3 for DCA.

My takeaway: the overall odds aren't too bad, but just like at a casino, it can be easy to 'lose.'

---------------------------------

They posted on their blog that the predictions are from crowd levels from 2006 to now. HydroGuy makes a good observation in another thread:

I am sorry, I just could not care less how crowds tomorrow compare to crowds in 2006. And I doubt anyone else cares either. When I am choosing days to visit DLR or WDW and attempt to use a crowd calendar I want to know if I am going at a busy or less busy time of that year compared to other days in that year. Comparing 2015 to 2006 is absurd.

If Disneyland is getting busier and busier every year, especially during the 'off-seasons,' then including levels from 2006 in the prediction will average them down lower than where they should be. So this could very well be why they have a trend of underestimation.

 

[sheetz]

DLR crowds are always going to be more fluid than those at WDW by nature of their audience. Changes in the AP program and school calendars can make huge differences from year to year.

 

[HydroGuy]

Thanks for taking some time to review their numbers. The business of crowd prediction is difficult so I personally do not fault anyone for being inaccurate. My problem as we discussed elsewhere is their methodology and whether they follow their own methodology.

It would be great to see the distribution of their predictions. How many 10's, 9's, 8's. etc. they had in the last year. If everything is skewed to mostly 8-10 as I found then again I would say their predictions are just not helpful. To say most days are really busy does not help the average guest.

And I think your observations of how DLR's and WDW's attempt to get guests in during off season skews things is on the money.

 

[BobearQSI]

It would be great to see the distribution of their predictions.

Well, since this information is publicly available on their blog, I feel comfortable posting it. Here are their predictions from Sept 2014 through near the end of July this year - the pink indicates what the actual crowd levels were:

 

[BobearQSI]

And here's the distribution of predictions:

Looks like for DL, 9's are the least predicted, and 5's seem a bit low compared to 4's and 6's.

 

[ZamboniNerd]

Great information all! Agree their WDW predictions are more accurate, but the DL predictions are a descent indicator of what will happen. I use July 17 this year as an indicator. I thought their predictions were criminally low, but being in the park that day, I agree with their prediction and post-prediction analysis. I endorse them, but agree it can be "easy to lose."

 

[tarheelalum]

Touring Plans crowd predictions are not accurate. Not even in the ball park on some days. I use to subscribe to it and give it up.

 

[Winnowill]

Of late, their ride wait times are suspect, as well. Early in the morning, a lot of the headliners register as no wait at all, but posted wait times in the 40+-minute range.

 

[jeffg4]

On average, they underestimate the crowd level by 0.8 for Disneyland, and 0.4 for California Adventure. This number only includes days that they underestimate - days that they overestimated (was less busy than they predicted) are considered a 0, or "got it right."

So if I understand this correctly, if they predict a "9" and the actual is a "6," they are saying they "got it right?" Well, if I was going to be in a park on a certain day no matter what, I'd certainly prefer they overestimate the crowd than underestimate. However, if I was seeing a predicted CL 9 and I chose to stay away based on that prediction, I wouldn't be too happy when the actual came back a CL 6. I understand that predictions aren't a perfect science, but I think a miss should be considered a miss, whether they over-predict or under-predict.

 

[BobearQSI]

So if I understand this correctly, if they predict a "9" and the actual is a "6," they are saying they "got it right?"

No, not at all - that is simply what I did in order to calculate the number. The number I was calculating was the average amount they underestimate by, ignoring overestimations. For that calculation, if they predicted a 9 and it was a 6, I counted that as a 0. This is what I did for just that one statistic, TouringPlans does not say that.

 

[GatorChris]

You know, it could be that TP has become the source of their own demise. Could there be enough people out there looking at these crowd calendars and saying, "I'm going on this day because the crowd prediction is low". But when they get there, they find that thousands of others are there because of the same information. It's like what happened to the low season. They don't exist because people like me and you come here and read that "x" week is when crowds are low. Therefore, the low seasons increase in attendance while traditional busy seasons aren't quite as busy anymore. Just a thought....

 

[Sherry E]

You know, it could be that TP has become the source of their own demise. Could there be enough people out there looking at these crowd calendars and saying, "I'm going on this day because the crowd prediction is low". But when they get there, they find that thousands of others are there because of the same information. It's like what happened to the low season. They don't exist because people like me and you come here and read that "x" week is when crowds are low. Therefore, the low seasons increase in attendance while traditional busy seasons aren't quite as busy anymore. Just a thought....

Yes, exactly! This is what I always refer to as the "Crowds Causing Crowds While Avoiding Crowds" syndrome. It can occur during specific weeks of any season, or on specific days that are expected to be busy (such as the large numbers of people afraid of Candlelight Ceremony crowds, who end up causing crowds because they are packing into Disneyland earlier in the day to avoid what they think will be the Candlelight crowds! ). That's exactly what happens -- there is a mass exodus of people from the days or weeks that would ordinarily be crowded, and they all head over to the time frames that are supposedly less crowded -- which, in turn, makes the less crowded times more crowded, and the formerly super crowded times become less crowded. Then it all eventually shifts in the opposite direction again!

 

[HydroGuy]

As Yogi Berra said about a popular restaurant, "No one goes there anymore because it is too crowded".

 

[NorthernCalMom]

I guess it looks as if they're ok at guessing tendencies, even though their crowd predictions seem to be too low and affected by underestimating the effects of the anniversary celebration. I figure I'm still using it for planning (first time this year, I used to work with Ride Max in the past but I love the "Evaluate" function in Touring Plans) but will take the wait times predictions with a grain of salt and may plan in extra breaks to adjust.

 

[jeffg4]

You know, it could be that TP has become the source of their own demise. Could there be enough people out there looking at these crowd calendars and saying, "I'm going on this day because the crowd prediction is low". But when they get there, they find that thousands of others are there because of the same information. It's like what happened to the low season. They don't exist because people like me and you come here and read that "x" week is when crowds are low. Therefore, the low seasons increase in attendance while traditional busy seasons aren't quite as busy anymore. Just a thought....

I honestly don't think this is the case. The uber-planners and the people on these forums represent a very small percentage of the Disney patrons. I would venture to guess that >90% of the people that show up to Disney have minimal to no plans and simply wing it on a daily basis. Even the ones that do look at crowd calendars as part of their planning, in most cases, don't have the flexibility to decide which weeks or which time of year to go. In my particular case, I am usually forced to go during a certain week, crowded or not, and will then look at crowd calendars to make my decision on which days to visit the parks. The "low" season has pretty much gone by the wayside not because people are studying crowd calendars, but because savvy business people and market experts are now very good at attracting guests during the slower periods by offering discounts and incentives to visit. Therefore, people are willing to pull kids out of school, for example, to visit during January or February if it means cheaper airfare and cheaper hotel rooms during that time. Look at what happened with Las Vegas. Many years ago, the "low" season for Vegas was the summer months because of the heat. Now, Vegas is just as crowded in the summer than it is at any time of the year. And you can no longer go get a steak dinner for $9.99. It's all based on supply and demand.