ROFR Stats

Discussion in 'Purchasing DVC' started by ImagineerTHAT, Jun 14, 2013.

  1. ImagineerTHAT

    ImagineerTHAT Imaginerd

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    So, I have been tracking ROFRs on the OC Comptroller website every few days. I figured I would start posting what I find to this thread just in case it interests anyone. The dates are when they were entered into the system, so keep in mind that the submission dates on the deeds/waivers of ROFR are prior to the dates they were submitted to the system.

    Sorry if I made any mistakes. Looks like Disney is ROFRing quite a bit. Special thanks to dmunsil for helping me out with this!

    DATE: 6/13 (Submitted to OC website)

    BLT ROFR'd
    160 Pts $91.25 PP
    160 Pts $92.50 PP

    SSR Passed
    200 Pts $65 PP (Passed ROFR 5/21)
    25 Pts $68 PP (Passed ROFR 5/6)
    70 Pts $55.71 PP (Passed ROFR 5/13)
    250 Pts $53.20 PP (Passed ROFR 5/13)
    160 Pts $72 PP (Passed ROFR 5/13)

    VWL Passed
    28 Pts $89.28 PP (Passed ROFR 5/27)

    VWL ROFR'd
    150 Pts $60 PP
    150 Pts $73.33 PP
    300 Pts $51.66 PP

    OKW ROFR'd
    150 Pts $37.33 PP
    310 Pts $55.16 PP

    BCV ROFR'd
    150 Pts $72 PP

    BWV Passed
    350 Pts $77.14 (Passed ROFR 5/13)

    BWV ROFR'd
    1 ROFR confusing deed transfer
     
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  3. jkevinmcg

    jkevinmcg Mouseketeer

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  4. susanjf

    susanjf Earning My Ears

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    Thanks!
     
  5. dmunsil

    dmunsil Disney Uber-Nerd

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    Nice work! I was just working on a report like this, because it seems like the ROFR rate is fairly high so far this month. It'll be nice to have someone else to cross check numbers with.

    Thanks!
     
  6. Moniqu17

    Moniqu17 Mouseketeer

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    Thanks for the great information! It makes me even more nervous about our BLT offer though v:sad2:
     
  7. ImagineerTHAT

    ImagineerTHAT Imaginerd

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    I'm honestly surprised someone doesn't compile this daily. It's so important to know where the middle ground is. You can either over spend or get ROFR'd so capturing this is worth the time.

    Maybe dmunsil and I can continue this thread every few days and others can weigh in from time to time. It would help us "buyers" or "sellers" know where we stand a little bit better vs the mouse and other bidders!
     
  8. Hunclemarco

    Hunclemarco DIS Veteran

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  9. ImagineerTHAT

    ImagineerTHAT Imaginerd

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    Yes and no. The listings in that thread are only users that are on this board that want to share. What I am posting is every single deed that clears or doesn't through Disney Vacation Development. My listings are also between a week and month past the actual ROFR sent back to the broker, so that thread is a better representation of what is currently happening.

    As you can see I posted about 20 that went into the OC system on 6/13 alone. I guess I'm more interested in seeing what the market really represents vs. what people are willing to divulge.

    I'm happy to do it as it only takes 15-30 min on days when there is data.
     
  10. CarolMN

    CarolMN DVC Co-Moderator Moderator

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    This is the most interesting and valuable part for me. Thanks for taking your time to do it. :)

    Unfortunately, I think people are more likely to post in the ROFR thread if they think they got a bargain than if they think they may have paid more than others for the same thing.

    Thus, I think people are getting a skewed view of what the market really is - i.e., the ROFR threads tends to make people think the going prices are lower than they actually are. Then those folks get frustrated when their "fair" offers are rejected or if they see others making full price offers.
     
  11. Tigger1

    Tigger1 DIS Veteran

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    I thank you for all the work you are doing. I love these type of stats. How can I look them up on the oc site?

    Tigger
     
  12. ImagineerTHAT

    ImagineerTHAT Imaginerd

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    Carol is spot on! :thumbsup2

    Only one for 6/14

    BWV Passed
    270 Pts $81 PP (Passed ROFR 5/21)
     
  13. ImagineerTHAT

    ImagineerTHAT Imaginerd

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    Not a problem at all! I want to see people pass ROFR as much as possible.:cool1:

    As far as where the data comes from, it's a combination of searching for deeds and notices on the OC Comptroller website where Disney Vacation Development is the Grantor or Grantee. When there is a "notice" where DVD is the Grantor, it's a waiver of ROFR. Then you look at the parties and find the deed between them and calculate PP based on sale price and points. Certain title companies are better at providing info than others (LOVE Magic Vacation Title)!!!

    When Disney is the Grantee, they have taken a deed back either through foreclosure, some sort of legal battle, gratuitously, or through their ROFR. I look through them and pull out the ones where Disney bought back the deed. Then I look up the original deed where the party bought from Disney to find the points (unless it was a resale and I look that up).

    Play around on the website and PM me or dmunsil with ?'s. Good luck!
     
  14. wdrl

    wdrl DIS Veteran

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    One thing you may want to consider is waiting until OCC proofs the documents before you compile the data. Currently, the OCC documents are proofed through June 10, 2013. Usually, OCC proofs documents about 1 to 5 work days after the current date.

    There is a very slight chance that OCC will modify a record between the time it initially posts the record and the record is proofed. More than 99% of the time are are no changes. However, there was a memorable instance when OCC posted a Declaration for a resort but then the Declaration was removed the next day before the documents were proofed.
     
  15. JessLCH

    JessLCH DIS Veteran

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    Thank you for your work. It is very helpful!
     
  16. dmunsil

    dmunsil Disney Uber-Nerd

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    OK, I finished my ROFR data for mid-June. I looked at everything ROFRed that was recorded between Jun 1 and today. Disney seems to do ROFRs about once a week and records them all in chunks on one or two days, so this is stuff from the 4th/5th and then 12th/13th. Looks like it's going to be a heavy month for ROFRs.

    I haven't looked at sales yet. Looks like my numbers for the Jun 13th deeds track ImagineerTHAT's, except that I've continued rounding down to the nearest dollar because I think that tends to compensate for the inaccuracies involved in estimating the price from the deed doc tax. And I think I was able to unravel the crazy ball of deed transfers that the people who owned that one BWV contract had. It helped that they also sold and ROFRed a some stuff in a previous month that I'd gone through already.

    I'm not totally sure that the BLT ones that went for 91 and 92 are ROFRs. The seller had an outstanding mortgage, and Disney used a slightly different deed form that they've used in the past for what looked like foreclosures. I've listed them, but I think they could be in essence the seller making a deal to hand back the properties to Disney and walking away - the DVC equivalent of leaving the keys in the mailbox. :) Purely a guess, though. And the $90 one is clearly a ROFR exercise. So BLT's floor is going up...

    There was also one transfer (not listed) that looked like a ROFR, but seems to be another take-back by Disney. They bought 200 points VWL from Disney in July 2012 for $102/point, paying cash. Then in May 2013 they sell it back to Disney for exactly the amount they paid. That's not a ROFR, because no one is going to pay $102/point in the resale market. I'd love to know what the story there is. Buyer's remorse 10 months later?

    Code:
    ROFRs for June 2013, mid-month (as of 15-Jun)
    
    BCV
    deed date  rec date  pts  UY   PPP
    18-May     13-Jun    150  Sep  $72
    20-May     4-Jun     300  Feb  $67
    20-May     4-Jun     50   Feb  $68
    28-May     12-Jun    310  Mar  $70
    
    BLT
    deed date  rec date  pts  UY   PPP
    14-May     13-Jun    160  Feb  $91
    14-May     13-Jun    160  Feb  $92
    18-May     4-Jun     300  Feb  $90
    
    BWV
    deed date  rec date  pts  UY   PPP
    23-Apr     4-Jun     125  Sep  $69
    23-Apr     13-Jun    200  Sep  $69
    19-May     4-Jun     150  Feb  $65
    19-May     5-Jun     400  Aug  $69
    20-May     4-Jun     200  Oct  $64
    21-May     4-Jun     200  Oct  $65
    
    OKW
    deed date  rec date  pts  UY   PPP
    16-May     5-Jun     250  Dec  $55
    20-May     13-Jun    310  Mar  $55
    21-May     4-Jun     230  Dec  $55
    21-May     4-Jun     260  Dec  $55
    23-May     13-Jun    250  Dec  $48
    31-May     12-Jun    370  Apr  $60
    3-Jun      13-Jun    150  Feb  $37
    4-Jun      12-Jun    125  Sep  $55
    
    VWL
    deed date  rec date  pts  UY   PPP
    17-Apr     13-Jun    300  Feb  $51
    13-May     5-Jun     200  Feb  $62
    20-May     4-Jun     200  Feb  $62
    22-May     13-Jun    150  Aug  $60
    31-May     13-Jun    150  Apr  $73
     
  17. DougEMG

    DougEMG DIS Veteran

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    Very interesting stuff, thanks for doing it.
     
  18. Hunclemarco

    Hunclemarco DIS Veteran

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    Thank you for explaining to me the benefit of this thread, and again thank you for your efforts in providing this information! :)

    Sent from my iPhone using DISBoards
     
  19. wdrl

    wdrl DIS Veteran

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    The two BLT deeds appear to be warranty deeds in lieu of foreclose even though they are not labeled as such. They each contain the standard paragraph seen in foreclosures that indicate the title is being conveyed to DVD in exchange for the cancellation of the debt secured by a mortgage. A true ROFR does not contain this paragraph.

    OCC's records are not foolproof. There are some strange data items, some obvious errors, and some that don't make sense at all. Its quite possible that someone entered the wrong sale compensation amount on the VWL record. Occasionally, a corrected deed will appear on the OCC website a few days or a few weeks later. Its also possible (but not probable) this record may be corrected by the time OCC proofs documents for June 13th.
     
  20. ImagineerTHAT

    ImagineerTHAT Imaginerd

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    Good catch on the foreclosures. I don't really read through them much...just look at the heading. If it says warranty deed I assume it's a ROFR and if it says foreclosure I stop there.

    You're also right about letting them process, but I am interested in the most recent data that I can get to. For the most part this data should give us a general observation on the current trend of offers and ROFRs.
     
  21. nabi

    nabi Home at Disney!

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    OKW at $37.33 pp.... how did that happen?!?!

    Some of these are not from the commonly discussed 4 resale brokers... their prices are LOW!

    Thanks for sharing these, OP.
     

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